The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats

Desirable system performance in the face of threats has been characterized by various management concepts. Through semistructured interviews with editors of journals in the fields of emergency response and systems management, a literature review, and professional judgment, we identified nine related and often interchangeably used system performance concepts: adaptability, agility, reliability, resilience, resistance, robustness, safety, security, and sustainability. A better understanding of these concepts will allow system planners to pursue management strategies best suited to their unique system dynamics and specific objectives of good performance. We analyze expert responses and review the linguistic definitions and mathematical framing of these concepts to understand their applications. We find a lack of consensus on their usage between interview subjects, but by using the mathematical framing to enrich the linguistic definitions, we formulate comparative visualizations and propose distinct definitions for the nine concepts. We present a conceptual framing to relate the concepts for management purposes.     

An intuitive risk factors search algorithm: usage of the Bayesian network technique in personalized medicine

The article focuses on the application of the Bayesian networks (BN) technique to problems of personalized medicine. The simple (intuitive) algorithm of BN optimization with respect to the number of nodes using naive network topology is developed. This algorithm allows to increase the BN prediction quality and to identify the most important variables of the network. The parallel program implementing the algorithm has demonstrated good scalability with an increase in the computational cores number, and it can be applied to the large patients database containing thousands of variables. This program is applied for the prediction for the unfavorable outcome of coronary artery disease (CAD) for patients who survived the acute coronary syndrome (ACS). As a result, the quality of the predictions of the investigated networks was significantly improved and the most important risk factors were detected. The significance of the tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene polymorphism for the prediction of the unfavorable outcome of CAD for patients survived after ACS was revealed for the first time.     

Decisions,Science, and Values: Crafting Regulatory Alternatives Analysis

Emerging “prevention‐based” approaches to chemical regulation seek to minimize the use of toxic chemicals by mandating or directly incentivizing the adoption of viable safer alternative chemicals or processes. California and Maine are beginning to implement such programs, requiring manufacturers of consumer products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify and evaluate potential safer alternatives. In the European Union, the REACH program imposes similar obligations on manufacturers of certain substances of very high concern. Effective prevention‐based regulation requires regulatory alternatives analysis (RAA), a methodology for comparing and evaluating the regulated chemical or process and its alternatives across a range of relevant criteria. RAA has both public and private dimensions. To a significant degree, alternatives analysis is an aspect of product design; that is, the process by which private industry designs the goods it sells. Accordingly, an RAA method should reflect the attributes of well‐crafted product design tools used by businesses. But RAA adds health and environmental objectives to the mix of concerns taken into account by the product designer. Moreover, as part of a prevention‐based regulatory regime, it implicates important public values such as legitimacy, equity, public engagement, and accountability. Thus, an RAA should reflect both private standards and public values, and be evaluated against them. This article adopts that perspective, identifying an integrated set of design principles for RAA, and illustrating the application of those principles.     

The Development of Multiple Self‐Concept Dimensions During Adolescence

The purpose of this research was to analyze the development of self‐concept during adolescence. Participants included 484 teenagers (226 boys and 258 girls) from middle‐class families in the Basque Country region of Spain (M_age = 14.99, SD = 1.81 in Time 1 and M_age = 15.64, SD = 1.80 in Time 2). Longitudinal analysis found differences in the general school dimension. Six dimensions (math, verbal, general school, physical abilities, parent relationships and same‐sex relationships) reported a linear trend with a decreasing monotonic pattern; self‐esteem fit a cubic trend and physical appearance a quadratic trend line. Males showed higher means in self‐esteem, math, physical abilities, physical appearance, emotional stability and parent relationships; and females had higher values in verbal and general school.     

Are Migrants Overrepresented Among Individual Welfare Beneficiaries?

The level of immigrant welfare dependency is the subject of heated debate in the majority of developed countries, which have experienced a significant increase in immigration in recent years. In both Europe and the US, the problem of potential excessive use of social transfers is beginning to bring real policy consequences. This article addresses this issue by presenting a quantitative assessment of welfare receipt in 17 European countries, as well as Yun decomposition of its differences between natives and immigrants. It adds to existing literature by comparing the levels of welfare dependence among EU and non-EU migrants for individual benefits including and excluding pensions, using recent data from EU-SILC. Results suggest that immigrants rely on welfare less often than natives, and receive lower benefits when they do. Those conclusions are reversed, however, when old-age benefits are not considered – especially in the case of non-EU migrants.     

Cognitive distortions predict future gambling involvement

Disordered gambling is best conceptualized as a continuum of severity. Previous research has demonstrated the utility of studying individuals at all points of this spectrum. The sequence of the development of gambling problems and change in gambling involvement along this continuum of severity is not well understood. The present study examined the interplay between cognitive distortions and gambling involvement in a population sample recruited in Alberta, Canada. Data from 1372 participants over 4 assessment waves (5 years) were used to generate a 2-factor latent structure using gambling fallacies and gambling involvement measurements. Structural equation modelling showed that cognitive distortions more strongly predicted future gambling involvement than the reverse relationship, using the comparative fit index (CFI) and the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) to assess the models. In addition, cognitive distortions declined over time, whereas gambling involvement remained stable. The results of the study suggest that focusing primarily on cognitive mechanisms in public health initiatives for gambling disorders may be a more effective strategy than focusing on behavioural solutions.     

Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life‐Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life‐cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA‐MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi‐attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary.     

Flood Risk Management: US Army Corps of Engineers and Layperson Perceptions

Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non‐USACE‐expert, and two USACE‐expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models.