对“人口红利”概念本土应用的反思——从中国人口红利消失与否的争论说起

以学界对中国人口红利是否消失的争论为起点,通过追溯"人口红利"概念的产生与发展过程并考察这一概念在中国人口研究中的本土化应用,可以发现:应用中存在着片面、简化、泛化的问题,同时将此概念直面中国现实,也可见其存在注重经济效益、缺乏社会维度和注重生产过程、忽视消费过程的潜在缺憾,导致它难以合理、准确解释现实。而这一概念在中国的流行或可反映出中国发展逻辑上应该注意的问题。     

Does Dividing the Range by Four Provide an Accurate Estimate of a Standard Deviation in Family Science Research? A Teaching Editorial

Occasionally, scientific reports have omitted information on standard deviations, making estimates of effect sizes very difficult to impossible. In such situations, several scholars have recommended obtaining an estimate of the standard deviation of distributions by dividing the range of the distribution (highest value minus lowest value) by four. However, there appears to be little evidence to confirm the validity of this approach. Articles from 2012 to 2015 in the journal Marriage & Family Review were surveyed to find instances where demographic variables (age, education, duration of relationship, number of children) were reported with both standard deviations and ranges. Ratios between range and standard deviations were calculated by several rules of thumb or more complex formulas and compared with the actual ratios obtained. Results indicated that dividing by five in general provided a more accurate estimate of actual standard deviations but accuracy in predicting the true ratio between range and standard deviation was substantially related to the position of the mean score within the range of scores with larger divisors needed as the mean approached either the minimum or the maximum values of the demographic variable (skew). Other recent formulae for estimating the standard deviation were also evaluated, but the skew-based approach appeared to be more accurate than the others. However, further investigation in other samples is needed because the skew-based approach was derived from observation of the data here, which might not replicate in different sets of data.     

老龄社区的一体两面：就地照护与人口红利

依循田野调查、实作参与和他国经验，指出我国“未富先老”的老龄社区须具备“关系营造”与“活化市场”双重面向；场域再造以释放社区蕴藏的巨大“老年人口红利”、将就地养老照护问题操作化，引导老年人成为社区发展主体，积极回应老龄社会本土化机制。在非正式安排与正式制度中，实现高龄老人就地照护、低龄老人适度就业，达成制度化与社会性并行、共享共治的老龄社区永续与自组织。     

定向增发后上市公司投资机会分析

股权分置改革后,定向增发成为上市公司再融资的主要形式,投资者也越来越关注定向增发股票的投资机会。检验上市公司定向增发融资方式与高送转的相关性,采用事件研究法分析实施高送转的短期股票的收益率。研究结果显示,上市公司定向增发的融资方式与高送转股利政策有相关性,实施高送转存在短期收益,能够为投资者带来投资机会。     

股票投资价值研究

本文对股票的投资价值进行了理论分析，提出股票投资价值具有主观性的特点，同时它是企业经营者与股东之间、股东与股东之间博弈的产物。文章同时指出目前普遍采用的用净利润代替股利进行股票投资价值判断的方法具有较大的误差，提出中国目前亟需通过法律手段来约束企业的股利分配政策以促进中国股市的健康发展。     

Demography and gender regimes: The case of Italians and ethnic traditions

In proposing measures that might improve adverse projected population futures, many demographers have endorsed feminist demands for family-friendly social policies and gender equity in the home. This paper provides a constructive critique of some versions of this argument. Without presenting new empirical data, it makes a case for the use of alternative conceptual tools in study design. It does so by focusing on three underpinnings of claims that fertility is lowest in countries with the greatest disparity between public and private patriarchy. Using Italy and Italians as an example, the paper discusses empirical measurements of the domestic division of labour, depictions of Italian family traditions and theorizations of family dynamics more generally, and wider understandings of modernity and tradition, both on the canvas of grand theory and within ethnographies of Italian families. The paper concludes with examples of studies that use the suggested conceptual framework.     

From the First to the Second Demographic Transition: An Interpretation of the Spatial Continuity of Demographic Innovation in France, Belgium and Switzerland

This article links spatialindicators of two demographic innovation wavesto historical and contemporary covariates ofboth a socio-economic and a cultural nature. The two waves of innovation correspond to theso-called first and second demographictransitions (FDT, SDT), respectively. Aconnection is made between the emergence ofspatial demographic patterns and A.J. Coale'sthree preconditions for innovation, i.e. readiness, willingness and ability(RWA-model) and to the influence of networks inshaping relatively stable regional subcultures. Since the RWA-model is of the bottleneck type, it is expected that the slowest moving ormost resistant condition will largely determinethe spatial outcome of the two demographictransitions. In the instances of Frenchdépartements, Belgian arrondissements andSwiss cantons, clear statistical associationsemerge between indicators of both FDT and SDTand cultural indicators. This suggests thatthe willingness condition, as reflected inregional subcultures, has been the dominantbottleneck in both waves of demographicinnovation. The Swiss evidence is, however,weaker than that for France and Belgium,despite the fact that, here too, associationsare in the expected direction.     

University student enrollment forecasts by analysis structural ratios using ARIMA-methods

Summary Forecasts for the number of students in Germany are conducted by the Kultusministerkonferenz. They use a transition model which does not allow for prediction intervals and therefore lack a measure of uncertainty of the forecast. Since the uncertainty is high for such forecasts, this lack is of importance. In this paper, structural ratios, relating the number of university students to the population of the same age, are analyzed and forescasted using ARIMA-models with outliers. Multiplying these ratios with official population forecasts for Germany provides the future number of students, additionally giving prediction intervals. This number will increase from 1.94 million in 2002 to 2.35 million in 2015. The uncertainty of the forecast is high; the forecast interval in 2015 will range between 1.72 and 2.98 million at a 95% confidence level. Supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG). We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some helpful comments.     

生态税与社会就业：“双重红利假说”的视角

基于生态税"双重红利"假说的综合性税制改革是90年代以来各国政府和学术界关注的热点之一.针对中国当前环境问题和就业问题这两个突出矛盾,本文基于"双重红利"假说的思想,提出了一个局部均衡模型,就生态税对两者的影响进行了探讨,分析了其解决中国现实问题的预期效果和限制因素.本文的研究表明,生态税能否达到双重红利的效果与多个因素有关,特别是与企业所处行业的污染治理成本紧密相关,并不能一概而论,在政府征税能力不强,企业逃税比较普遍的环境下,政府的直接补贴未必能实现补贴的初衷.建议在引入法律意义上的生态税税种之前,先在一些地区或行业进行试点,基于我国实际状况的财税改革措施可能会有更好的实际效果.     

我国上市公司的实证研究：股权结构和高层梯队与公司绩效的关系

分析了股权结构和高层梯队对公司绩效的影响并进行了实证研究。股权结构与公司绩效的实证结果显示,流通股对公司绩效有显著负面影响,而法人股则与之呈弱的正相关关系。在国有股权控股的企业中,股权一定程度上的集中对公司是有利的,且政府直接控股比间接控股更有利于企业的整体价值。在论证高层梯队与公司绩效关系上,从团队的传记性特征方面作了实证分析,初步得出了公司绩效与高层梯队平均年龄和平均受教育状况正相关,而与年龄和教育背景的差异性呈负相关关系这一结论。此外,在不同股权结构下,高层梯队对公司绩效影响具有差异性。