我国建筑消防现状

近年来 ,中国城市建筑火灾发生率呈上升趋势 ,仅 1999年 ,全国共发生建筑火灾 18万起 ,比前一年增长 4 1% ;死亡 2 70 0多人 ,比前一年增长 15 % ,直接经济损失多达 14亿元。     

Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest, Romania

The Municipality of Bucharest is one of the capitals with the highest seismic risk in the world. Bucharest is particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard due to: the high density of inhabitants, especially within the residential districts with blocks of flats; the old public utility fund; the out-of-date infrastructure; the numerous industrial parks that are undergoing a restructuring process, not to mention the inefficient organization of civil protection and poor education of the population regarding seismic risk. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people living with the risk of an earthquake hazard in Bucharest. We were interested in how attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education, residential area and socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard, degree of risk exposure, degree of danger, and casualty awareness. At the same time, we compare the results of this study with those from a previous and similar enquiry in 1997. The statistical processing has indicated a significant difference between the declared perception of seismic risk and the independent variables of gender, age, level of education, level of attachment to the residential area, and degree to which the subjects consider they may be affected and could retrieve their losses. Due to the continuous decrease of their living standard, the most vulnerable is the aged population. The feelings toward the residential area is another factor of statistical significance for the population's seismic danger perception. A strong affective bond offers a feeling of safety and leads to the neglect and even total denial of the hazard. In the case of independent variables regarding the type of dwelling, its age, and property form, deviations of empiric values from the theoretical distribution are not relevant for the correlation searched for, which indicates that this issue goes beyond the above-mentioned criteria.     

地震灾后重建绩效测量——以汶川、玉树、芦山地震为例

灾后重建是保障地震灾区群众重归正常生产生活的重要工作,那么如何测量灾后重建绩效,哪些因素会影响灾后重建绩效?文章回顾了灾后重建绩效相关研究文献,在此基础上认为效果和效率是灾后重建绩效的两大方面,以"消除灾害影响并恢复到灾前水平所用的时间"作为衡量灾后重建绩效的标准,能够反映灾后重建的效果和效率,具有可行性。以此为基础建立了灾后重建绩效的分析框架和测量方法,并选择汶川地震、玉树地震和芦山地震作为案例,对三次地震灾区的重建绩效进行了对比分析并简要分析了绩效差异原因。结果表明,三次地震灾后重建基本如期完成了灾后重建目标任务,但因存在灾害程度不同、对口支援质量不同等原因,三次地震灾后重建绩效存在一定差异。     

灾害社会学的研究脉络与主要议题

灾害社会学的研究关注灾害事实发生发展变化的过程,国家、社会与灾民倾注于救灾的实践.灾害因人的因素而成为社会科学的研究对象,围绕灾害和灾害社会学研究的主要议题,古今中外皆有关注.梳理国内外关于灾害的社会学研究,顺着灾害研究的理路,我们思考了灾害社会学研究的本土化问题.     

Nondeliberative Crisis Intervention in Disaster Zones: Social Group Work Using Guided Artwork with Child Survivors

ABSTRACT

Sudden disasters cause devastating loss and trauma. Social groupwork can help heal and empower survivors through the use of nondeliberative practice forms. The authors describe a social group work model using guided artwork activities with child survivors of disasters such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines. The authors also examine the features of nondeliberative theory exemplified through work with artful media in this groupwork context. Features include the use of analogs, representational problem solving, and feedback that takes place in a lived, experiential dimension.     

Bittersweet and Paradoxical

The American Red Cross is the most active nonprofit organization involved in disaster planning and response in the United States. The organization deployed nearly 50,000 volunteers to provide essential support to victims of some 125,000 domestic disasters, including home fires, hurricanes, wildfires, and floods, in a recent two‐year period. This study asks how American Red Cross disaster response volunteer experiences function to cultivate satisfaction and, at the other end of the spectrum, the kind of dissatisfaction that leads people to quit; it pays particular attention to ways in which volunteer management shapes dissatisfaction and fatigue because of implications for volunteer retention. Paradoxically, the Red Cross facilitates the highly satisfying act of helping victims, but volunteers feel dissatisfied when management practices get in the way of helping. The study suggests voluntary organizations that rely on skilled, long‐term volunteers to deliver services should evaluate and strengthen their communication strategies, recognition practices, and support systems for volunteers in distress.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

城市边缘地带地质灾害风险的形成与分配——以L市H社区的地质灾害为例

在风险社会中,既存在着普遍性风险,也存在着特殊性风险,考察特殊性风险的形成与分配应从微观层面入手。文章从风险社会学的角度研究L市边缘地带H社区的地质灾害风险。在梳理技术资料获取地质灾害风险形成的自然致灾因素之后,运用口头访谈方式直接从被访问者处获得一手资料,了解其个人生活史、进入社区的不同原因与方式、居住条件、生计方式等内容,探求直接或间接的影响该区域地质灾害风险形成的社会因素,最终得出该风险的分配原则:社会地位直接决定其风险地位。     

Opportunities and Challenges for Public Libraries to Enhance Community Resilience

This study bridges a gap between public library and emergency management policy versus practice by examining the role of public libraries in the community resource network for disaster recovery. Specifically, this study identifies the opportunities and challenges for public libraries to fulfill their role as a FEMA‐designated essential community organization and enhance community resilience. The results indicate there are several opportunities for libraries to enhance community resilience by offering technology resources and assistance; providing office, meeting, and community living room space; serving as the last redundant communication channel and a repository for community information and disaster narratives; and adapting or expanding services already offered to meet the changing needs of the community. However, libraries also face challenges in enhancing community resilience, including the temptation to overcommit library capacity and staff capability beyond the library mission and a lack of long‐term disaster plans and collaboration with emergency managers and government officials. Implications for library and emergency management practice and crisis research are discussed.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.