Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

Comparison of Two Psycho-Educational Interventions Aimed at Preventing HIV and Promoting Sexual Health Among Portuguese Women

This study compares the efficacy of 2 psychoeducational interventions—ACCENT skills-based and didactic information only—to prevent HIV among Portuguese women. At posttest and follow-up, participants in both intervention groups (n = 127) were more knowledgeable about HIV than at baseline. Although both intervention groups showed an increase in self-reported condom use over time, differences were marginally stronger in the ACCENT group. Both intervention groups showed more positive results than the non-intervention control group (n = 33). The study suggests that HIV prevention interventions can produce significant changes when they target a set of knowledge, social, and cognitive variables relevant to sexual behavior change.     

The use of vignettes to empower effective responses to attempted sexual assault

Objective: Women assertively resisting sexual aggression have the best chances of avoiding completed rape. Especially with acquaintances, there are significant social and psychological barriers to resistance. Novel vignettes depicting acquaintance rape were designed to enhance self-efficacy, reduce unrealistic optimism, and empower assertive resistance. Participants: The data were collected using a Web-based survey of 449 female college students from multiple universities in August–October 2014. Methods: Between-subjects mixed-methods design. Participants were randomly assigned to read one of four vignettes and complete self-report measures of personal vulnerability, self-efficacy, and beliefs and intention about resistance. Results: Although vignettes did not impact self-efficacy, one vignette enhanced perceived controllability and decreased unrealistic optimism. Women who read about completed acquaintance rape described intention to use physically assertive responses at double the rate of women reading about successful resistance. Conclusions: As low-cost, easily disseminated materials, vignettes about sexual assault may enhance campus prevention efforts.     

侵权人不明的高楼落物侵权的法律规制

《侵权责任法》第87条对侵权人不明的高楼落物侵权责任的承担进行了规定,具有保障受害人得到补偿、统一司法实践、降低致害概率的积极意义。但是,该规定也存在许多不足之处,主要表现为不利于社会和谐、容易引发道德风险、预防功能不充分、适用前提不明确等,没有很好地解决高楼落物侵权所面临的困境。采取社会救济、高楼落物赔偿基金、保险赔偿等多种途径相结合的救济方式,行政法、刑法与《侵权责任法》相配合的惩罚制度,不仅可以使受害人得到及时的、充分的补偿,而且可以有效预防此类侵权损害的发生。     

‘You Get More Respect,’ Reasons for Sex Among African American High School Youth: A Qualitative Study

ABSTRACT

African American adolescents continue to be disproportionately impacted by HIV, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and unanticipated pregnancies. In-depth, face-to-face interviews among a convenience sample of 32 African American adolescents (16 male and 16 female) were used to explore the reasons why some adolescents decided to engage in sex while others chose to delay sexual debut. Data were analyzed using a thematic analysis. Among the overall sample, psychological motivations, external pressure, physical pleasure seeking, and relationship-related motivations were the major themes cited for engaging in sex by participants and their friends. External support, motivation to avoid negative consequences, not feeling ready or lacking interest in sex, and having negative views about sex were among the major reasons for delaying sex. Several of the emergent themes showed gender differences. Suggestions for future research include the need for sexual education, and STI/HIV prevention programs that are gender sensitive and flexible enough to accommodate multiple factors related to sexual debut.     

现浇混凝土板的裂缝分析与防治

在建筑结构中，随着商品混凝土的大量使用，混凝土楼面板出现裂缝的机率大大增加，并日益受到人们的关注。裂缝出现的原因复杂，既有温度变化、混凝土收缩、地基不均匀沉降等原因，也有设计、施工、材料和使用等方面的问题。本文根据工程实践经验，对现浇混凝土板的裂缝在设计、施工、材料等方面的成因进行了分析，并提出了相应的裂缝防治措施。     

云南省地质灾害的发育特征及防治对策

受自然条件的影响和制约,云南成为我国受地质灾害危害较重的省份之一.地质灾害的频发,严重威胁着人民群众的生命财产安全,制约着我省经济、社会的发展.如何加强地质灾害防治工作,提高防治效果,不仅是保障人民群众生命财产安全的迫切要求,也是实现全面小康,构建"和谐云南"的重要举措.文章在对我省地质灾害发育的特征、当前地质灾害防治工作中存在的主要问题进行分析的基础上,提出了加强地质灾害防治的对策建议.     

On bias reduction estimators of skew-normal and skew-t distributions

A particular concerns of researchers in statistical inference is bias in parameters estimation. Maximum likelihood estimators are often biased and for small sample size, the first order bias of them can be large and so it may influence the efficiency of the estimator. There are different methods for reduction of this bias. In this paper, we proposed a modified maximum likelihood estimator for the shape parameter of two popular skew distributions, namely skew-normal and skew-t, by offering a new method. We show that this estimator has lower asymptotic bias than the maximum likelihood estimator and is more efficient than those based on the existing methods.     

规模养殖户对疫病防控公共服务的满意度研究

利用霍邱、肥东、长丰三县调研数据,构建logit模型分析养殖户对疫病防控公共服务的满意度及其影响因素.研究结果表明,规模养殖户满意度受到养殖年数、预防免疫认知度、畜牧主管部门培训、畜牧兽医行政管理部门免疫消毒是否及时四个因素的高度影响,养殖时间越长、对预防免疫认知度越高、培训越规范、免疫消毒越及时,养殖户的满意表现越高;其次政府主导的防疫体系,其目标导向与养殖户自身的目标并不完全一致,是政府投入逐渐增加、防疫效果未能改善的主要原因.     

自然灾害冲击对农村家庭非农就业选择的影响

利用国家重点研发计划重点专项2018年调研数据,构建了自然灾害冲击对农村家庭非农就业选择影响的理论框架,采用Probit模型验证了自然灾害冲击对农户家庭成员非农就业选择的影响。研究发现:自然灾害冲击对农户家庭成员非农就业选择有显著正向影响,这一正向影响会随着自然灾害强度的增加而不断提升;人力资本和社会资本的嵌入,会弱化自然灾害对农户家庭成员非农就业选择的影响,信贷约束却会强化这一影响。这意味着现阶段面对自然灾害冲击,农户家庭成员应积极尝试非农就业,不仅能够促进资本存量重构,还可以缓解家庭生计压力,增加农户家庭收入,避免农户家庭因灾致贫。