Reciprocal relationships between psychosocial work characteristics and sleep problems: A two-wave study

Sleep problems are common and impair the health and productivity of employees. Work characteristics constitute one possible cause of sleep problems, and sleeping poorly might influence wellbeing and performance at work. This study examines the reciprocal associations between sleep problems and psychosocial work characteristics. The participants were 1744 full-time employed individuals (56% women; mean age 38 years in 2007) from the Young Finns study who responded to questionnaires on work characteristics (conceptualised by the demand–control model and effort–reward imbalance model) and sleep problems (Jenkins Sleep Scale) in 2007 and 2012. Cross-lagged structural equation models are used to examine the associations. The results show that low control and low rewards at baseline predicted sleep problems. Baseline sleep problems predicted higher effort, higher effort–reward imbalance, and lower reward. Sleep problems also predicted lower odds for belonging to the low (rather than high) job strain group and active jobs group. The association between work characteristics and sleep problems appears to be reciprocal, with a stressful work environment increasing sleep problems, and sleep problems influencing future work characteristics. The results emphasise the importance of interventions aimed at both enhancing sleep quality and reducing psychosocial risks at work.     

阶梯电价背景下基于贝叶斯分析的用电需求模型

阶梯电价不仅引导居民合理、节约用电,而且减少了用户之间的电价交叉补贴,但在实际应用中存在多种不确定因素,如居民用电需求变动以及各档电量的确定范围等。针对居民用电需求变动,本文提出了基于贝叶斯估计方法的阶梯电价用电需求模型。首先提出基于阶梯电价的需求函数;其次对阶梯电价用电需求函数进行贝叶斯分析,分别从统计模型、似然函数、后验分布以及加速收敛四个方面分析;最后,对1250个用户的用电数据进行估计,将影响因素带入模型得出各用户的用电需求,确定了贝叶斯估计对用电需求模型构建的适用性。     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

服务型制造网络的Holon协同需求评价方法

依据复杂网络理论分析服务型制造网络Holon协同需求问题，给出一种考虑以直觉正态模糊数表示且多Holon协同的服务型制造网络协同需求评价方法。首先，在区分Holon复合协同和递归协同基础上构建服务型制造网络协同需求评价指标体系；其次，考虑基于网络结构特征的Holon相似稳定性，根据服务型制造网络节点相似性测度分析Holon协同需求特征，并测算不同相似性测度修正的Holon网络结构熵；再次，建立面向服务型制造网络和Holon的有专家信息双向触动反馈机制，反馈包括评价指标和网络协同状况，反馈Holon信息包括基于服务型制造网络演化方向的Holon间协同需求建议和基于服务型制造网络现有状态的网络连通性Holon协同需求建议；最后由INFCWA（INFCWA_R）算子或INFCWG（INFCWG_R）算子分别对复合协同和递归协同评价信息集结并得出评价结论。方法设计过程通过例证分析说明根据服务型制造网络目标控制的Holon协同需求评价改进了群组评价效率。     

通过深化体制改革建立扩大内需的长效机制

我国内需不足的根本原因是深层次的体制问题，具体表现在不合理的收入分配体制，政府公共服务支出占政府总支出的比重较低，国有企业借助行政垄断地位挤压中小企业的生存空间．也增加了居民的生活成本，城乡一体化改革进展缓慢。必须通过深化经济体制改革，加快推进收入分配体制改革，加快公共财政体制建设，逐步完善基本公共服务体系，鼓励扩大民间投资，深化国有企业体制改革，加快推进城乡一体化改革。     

二级院系教学质量监控体系

在校院两级管理体系下,二级院系教学质量监控尤为重要。通过对二级院系教学质量监控现状的分析,提出二级院系要做好教学质量监控必须明确建设目标和建设内容,从监控体系的组织、人员构成、监控制度、监控内涵到信息反馈、改进系统,以及运行保障措施等几个方面采取措施,从而保证教学质量监控工作的持续、有效进行。     

Price-setting newsvendor with strategic consumers

We consider a newsvendor who sells a single product over a single season with the objective of determining both the selling price and stock quantity to maximize the expected profit. The customers are strategic and we consider two demand cases: additive and multiplicative. For each case, we derive the newsvendor׳s optimal decisions and demonstrate that neglecting the price-sensitivity of demand leads the newsvendor to make sub-optimal decisions. Moreover, we show that under certain conditions, strategic consumer behavior may positively affect the newsvendor׳s optimal expected profit in the additive demand case.     

贵州社会管理创新:经验、问题与出路

近年来,贵州社会管理创新取得了一些成效,其主要经验是强化中国共产党在社会管理创新中的领导地位,发挥政府在社会管理创新中的主导作用,创新内容要关注民生。尽管如此,贵州社会管理创新还存在社会矛盾化解机制不健全、基层政府社会管理力量薄弱、社会组织培育机制不健全等问题,应通过完善源头治理机制、改革基层社会管理体制、优化社会组织培育机制等途径来解决。     

Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation

Children represent a large underserved population of “therapeutic orphans,” as an estimated 80% of children are treated off‐label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or “borrowing”) of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure‐response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics.     

浅析高中数学有效教学的内涵、特征及实施策略

高中数学有效教学的涵义即在数学课程标准基本理念的指导下，促进学生数学学习、提高学生数学素养、促成学生终身发展．高中数学有效教学的主要特征是教学目标有效、教学过程有效、教学方式有效、教学结果有效。主要实施策略是，以引导探究为依托，实现有效的知识建构；以暴露思维作平台，实现有效的思维训练；以激发兴趣作前提，实现有效的情意驱动．