兰州市洒水治污政策变迁路径与动力研究——基于定性比较分析法

以兰州市洒水车治污政策为研究案例,应用清晰集定性比较分析法（Crisp-set QCA）研究地方政府具体环保政策的变迁问题。分析发现,自上而下的政治压力、公众舆论压力、媒介压力、专家压力以及领导变更等五类8个解释变量可以作为案例政策变迁的驱动因素,其中,中央媒介压力是政策变迁的必要条件。按照不同的驱动因素组合,兰州洒水治污政策变迁有4种演进路径,其中,最短路径是“中央媒介压力且网络媒介压力”与“领导批示且中央媒介压力”。此外,在本政策案例中,领导批示不但没有促成政策变迁,甚至不构成变迁的必要条件。无论是“地方领导留言板”,还是“门户网站留言板”均非政策变迁的充分或必要条件,因此未能彰显公民参与在政策问题建构中的权力扩大,公众并没有实质拥有建构权,也未能成为建构主体,仅依赖互动平台的构建是无法打破原有的政策问题建构秩序的,因而也不能促使政策变迁彰显民意。     

Drug resistance in an age-of-infection model

ABSTRACT

In the case of a disease spreading over a time-scale comparable to the average lifetime in a host population, when the infectiousness of individuals depends on the tine since the onset of infection and when infections involve both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains of a pathogen, resistance may develop during the treatment of drug-sensitive strains. If increasing the treatment rate reduces the reproduction number of the drug-sensitive strain to a value below the reproduction number of the drug-resistant strain, then the disease may persist at a boundary equilibrium where only drug-resistant infection is present.     

西方平等理论从古典自然法学到新自然法学的嬗变

平等是一个非常复杂和抽象的范畴,西方法学对平等理论的热爱和追逐从未停止过,从古典自然法学追求的抽象的平等的政治理想,到新自然法学对平等的制度设计的现实关怀,平等理论随着自然法学的发展实现了其自身的嬗变,这种改变也是时代的要求、历史的必然。     

人力资源管理与企业战略、绩效关系研究的演进——基于企业环境的变化

高度动态化的环境作为当前企业面临的最大问题,导致不可预测性的增强。这将直接影响战略的制定和执行。因此,这一环境下的企业如何保持战略实施有效性和竞争优势可持续性成为企业发展道路上的关键。而在战略与绩效的关系中,人力资源作为企业关键的战略性资源是企业运作的基础,其管理起了非常重要的作用。本文通过对已有文献的详细梳理,概括出两类研究类型:战略和人力资源的匹配;人力资源的配置管理与实现绩效的关系。柔性化思想的提出,使人力资源研究有了新的方向。在环境变动这一前提下,人力资源柔性化的管理区别于传统意义上的管理。本文以动态环境的背景,围绕人力资源、战略、绩效三者的关系提炼出整合的演进框架,以更好地指导未来人力资源相关的研究。     

Earthquakes occurrences estimation through a parametric semi-Markov approach

The estimation of earthquakes’ occurrences prediction in seismic areas is a challenging problem in seismology and earthquake engineering. Indeed, the prevention and the quantification of possible damage provoked by destructive earthquakes are directly linked to this kind of prevision. In our paper, we adopt a parametric semi-Markov approach. This model assumes that a sequence of earthquakes is seen as a Markov process and besides it permits to take into consideration the more realistic assumption of events’ dependence in space and time. The elapsed time between two consecutive events is modeled as a general Weibull distribution. We determine then the transition probabilities and the so-called crossing states probabilities. We conclude then with a Monte Carlo simulation and the model is validated through a large database containing real data.     

哈代向善思想在《贝妲的婚姻》中的呈现

哈代的作品中大部分是通过对婚姻、宗教、道德、教育以及妇女解放等问题来对资本主义工业背景下的社会进行批判。《贝坦的婚姻》中讲述了贝妲为了自己的婚姻从与权贵斗争再到妥协的历程,通过小说人物的心理变化,可以让人们感受到贝妲的无奈,同时也体现了哈代的向善思想的发展,让我们对作品有更加深刻的认识。     

论语法化的理论内涵

从20世纪80年代语法化研究复兴至今,国内外的语法化研究都取得了丰硕成果,但也存在很多的分歧和争论。"什么是语法化?"这是语法化研究的本体问题,也是必须回答的首要问题。很多学者基于各自的研究思路和研究立场,对语法化的内涵作出了不同界定,但大多难以涵盖语法化的各种现象和领域。在语法化研究与类型学、构式语法等语言学前沿领域相结合,不断向更加广泛和深入的方向发展的今天,我们有必要对语法化的内涵加以梳理并对语法化的核心问题做进一步的讨论。     

论坚持“以德为先”选用干部

我们党选用干部标准的思想经历了从毛泽东提出的＂德才兼备＂到胡锦涛明确提出的＂德才兼备、以德为先＂的历史的、理论的发展演变过程。从宏观上和战略上看,坚持＂以德为先＂选用干部,在理论层面和现实需求层面上都具有重大的价值意义。要使＂以德为先＂用人标准不致于流于形式,就必须健全完善与时俱进的党员干部＂德＂之衡量标准。     

Neo‐liberalism by Decay? The Evolution of the Czech Welfare State

In this article we analyse the evolution of the Czech welfare state and we examine the factors explaining its path. We show that although the Czech welfare regime exhibits a 'mixed profile' that includes conservative and universalist elements, it is increasingly moving in a more liberal, residualist direction – not because of conscious steps but rather through decay. Governments have often zig-zagged in their policies and resorted to symbolic reforms at times rather than implementing ideologically based, consistent policies. We argue that historical and sociological institutionalism combined with a social-capital approach can explain this decay better than the more common arguments about economic pressures combined with ideological hegemony or the protest-avoidance strategy. In particular, the social capital approach adds to our institutional framework by explaining why cutbacks in welfare programmes have not met much opposition, even though public opinion surveys consistently show support for more generous welfare policies, and why policies have deviated so much from political rhetoric.     

商代海贝性质分析

传统观点认为商代海贝或者仿海贝是中国货币的最初阶段,但是,从考古发现的商代海贝来看,出土情况复杂,无法从考古材料上对商代已经出现货币的观点给予支持;相反,从大量商代海贝密集出土情况来看,我们认为海贝是殷商时期大量使用的装饰品,最初仅仅作为财富的象征,甚至是在一定程度还可以起到辨别不同人群的功能;同时不排除西周以后货贝演化为货币的可能性。