Using Expert Models in Human Reliability Analysis—A Dependence Assessment Method Based on Fuzzy Logic

In human reliability analysis (HRA), dependence analysis refers to assessing the influence of the failure of the operators to perform one task on the failure probabilities of subsequent tasks. A commonly used approach is the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP). The assessment of the dependence level in THERP is a highly subjective judgment based on general rules for the influence of five main factors. A frequently used alternative method extends the THERP model with decision trees. Such trees should increase the repeatability of the assessments but they simplify the relationships among the factors and the dependence level. Moreover, the basis for these simplifications and the resulting tree is difficult to trace. The aim of this work is a method for dependence assessment in HRA that captures the rules used by experts to assess dependence levels and incorporates this knowledge into an algorithm and software tool to be used by HRA analysts. A fuzzy expert system (FES) underlies the method. The method and the associated expert elicitation process are demonstrated with a working model. The expert rules are elicited systematically and converted into a traceable, explicit, and computable model. Anchor situations are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The expert model and the FES‐based dependence assessment method make the expert rules accessible to the analyst in a usable and repeatable way, with an explicit and traceable basis.     

Investigative vs. Clinical Emphasis in Child Custody Evaluation: A Reflection on Austin and Kirkpatrick(2004)

ABSTRACT

There is an ongoing discussion regarding the role of psychologists in child custody relative to clinical vs. investigative roles. The issues revolve around how expansive or how limited a professional might be in addressing the concerns of families, adults and children in high conflict custody cases. In the article, the investigative or more maximalist role is discussed in the light of the alternative more clinical or minimalist stance. An argument is advanced that we may be limited to a more clinical/minimalist role if we are to stay within the confines of research informed practice standards.     

Doing It Well

SUMMARY

Social workers are being challenged internationally to be accountable by defining competency standards at beginning and advanced levels. The study that is the subject of this article will develop the work of one of the authors, which involved a 5-year longitudinal study of beginning social workers and another of experienced social workers. These studies resulted in a book on professional expertise (Fook, Ryan, & Hawkins, 2000). The present study furthered that work and subjected this theory of professional expertise to further testing by examining the work of a sample of expert (rather than experienced) social workers in the mental health field in Melbourne, Australia. Data was collected from a selected sample of mental health social workers by the use of focus group interview. This article reports on the study's findings and discusses their significance and application.     

Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model

A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens's data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters of the chicken processing line model.     

Engineering of a decision support system for underground coal mine planning and production scheduling

This paper reports on the development of a computer-based management information system at Datong Coal Company, the largest subsidiary of China National Coal Corporation. Particularly presented is the development methodology of a decision support system for underground coal mine planning and production scheduling, including an integration of computer graphics, database management, mathematical modelling and knowledge engineering techniques and a coupling of life cycle and prototyping software engineering processes to support systems quality assurance.     

通儒治经之法用以治医经——清代大儒焦循的治医理念

清代大儒焦循儒医兼治,他的经学著作是清代学术的典范之作,不但反映了清代中后期的学术风貌,而且尽显清代扬州学派的通学风貌;他治医主张"通儒治经之法用以治医经",他的治医理念从另一侧面表现了他的通儒风采与通儒精神。     

基于总线观测的微机故障诊断专家系统研究

采用与或树、产生式规则和ＤＢＭＳ相结合的知识表示方法建立专家系统。论述了基于总线观测的知识获取与诊断方法，提出了基于总线观测的可测性分析方法和故障信息的相关性分析方法。该方法为总线测试信息的有效性及故障搜索策略的生成与优化提供了分析和判断依据，使系统有较高的推理效率和诊断分辨率。     

中国传统“亲亲相隐”制度重构的必要性分析及立法建议

“亲亲相隐”是一项具有中华法系特色的法律制度，自汉代以来被历朝的封建统治者所推崇。这一制度在新中国建立之后基本上被废弃。这种以伦理亲情为纽带的法律制度对社会稳定和和谐社会的构建有着十分重要的意义，笔者的社会调查也显示恢复这一制度是顺应民心的，因此应当在当代的刑事立法中予以重构。     

高校学报现状与发展的思考

高校学报是计划经济的产物,它在现行的市场经济体制下显露了种种弊端。通过分析学报发行量不足的原因,大多数学报无法成为核心期刊的原因及高校教师的投稿取向,得出学报的办刊方向末流高校应该取消其办报资格;普通高校应该以省为单位,根据科研实力分办专刊;名牌高校由于实力雄厚可以保留学报综合性特色,但应该增加编辑数量并分办专栏,从内容上和形式上打造品牌。     

关于知识推理的几种常用不精确推理模型的探讨

本文对常用几种的不精确推理模型作了初略的评述，并对这几种不精确推理模型的性能作出比较，从而得出它们的优点和缺点。