A general inversion theorem for cointegration

A generalization of the Granger and the Johansen Representation Theorems valid for any (possibly fractional) order of integration is presented. This Representation Theorem is based on inversion results that characterize the order of the pole and the coefficients of the Laurent series representation of the inverse of a matrix function around a singular point. Explicit expressions of the matrix coefficients of the (polynomial) cointegrating relations, of the Common Trends and of the Triangular representations are provided, either starting from the Moving Average or the Auto Regressive form. This contribution unifies different approaches in the literature and extends them to an arbitrary order of integration. The role of deterministic terms is discussed in detail.     

Divorce Chinese Style

This study investigated divorce during China's social and economic transformation period from 1970 to 2012. Specifically, the study examined the trend development of divorce and demonstrated how marriage formation type and individual socioeconomic characteristics were associated with the likelihood of divorce across time. Event‐history analysis was applied to longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2012 waves). The results showed a threefold increase in divorce from the pre‐1990s to the 1990s. Surprisingly, the trend shifted to a plateau toward the 2000s. When cohabitation was in its rapidly diffusing stage in the 1990s, individuals who cohabited prior to marriage had a substantially higher likelihood of divorce. As cohabitation became increasingly common in the 2000s, its effect on divorce weakened. The role of socioeconomic characteristics in divorce also varied across time. This study enriches the knowledge of family dynamics in contemporary Chinese society.     

Young people's orientations to the future: navigating the present and imagining the future

This article discusses the findings of the Imagine Sheppey project (2013–2014) which studied how young people are ‘oriented’ towards the future. The aim and approach of the project were to explore future imaginaries in a participatory, experimental, and performative way. Working with young people in a series of arts-based workshops, we intervened in different environments to alter the space as an experience of change – temporal, material, and symbolic. We documented this process visually and made use of the images produced as the basis for elicitation in focus groups with a wider group of young people. In this article we discuss young people's future orientations through the themes of reach, resources, shape, and value. In so doing, we reflect on the paths that our young respondents traced to connect their presents to what is next, what we call their modes of present–future navigation. We explore the qualities and characteristics of their stances within a wider reflection about how young people approach, imagine, and account for the future.     

The Decoupling of Marriage and Parenthood? Trends in the Timing of Marital First Births, 1945–2002

Family formation changed dramatically over the 20th century in the United States. The impact of these changes on childbearing has primarily been studied in terms of nonmarital fertility. However, changes in family formation behavior also have implications for fertility within marriage. The authors used data from 10 fertility surveys to describe changes in the timing of marital childbearing from the 1940s through the 21st century for non‐Hispanic White and non‐Hispanic Black women. Based on harmonized data from the Integrated Fertility Survey Series, the results suggest increasing divergence in fertility timing for White women. A growing proportion of marriages begin with a premarital conception; at the same time, an increasing proportion of White women are postponing fertility within marriage. For Black women, marital fertility is increasingly postponed beyond the early years of marriage. Evaluating the sequencing of marriage and parenthood over time is critical to understanding the changing meaning of marriage.     

Couple Longevity in the Era of Same‐Sex Marriage in the United States

The author used a new longitudinal data set, the How Couples Meet and Stay Together surveys (N = 3,009), to generate the first nationally representative comparison of same‐sex couple stability and heterosexual couple stability in the United States. He measured the association between marriage (by several definitions of marriage) and couple longevity for same‐sex couples in the United States. Reports of same‐sex relationship instability in the past were due in part to the low rate of marriages among same‐sex couples. After controlling for marriage and marriage‐like commitments, the break‐up rate for same‐sex couples was comparable to (and not statistically distinguishable from) the break‐up rate for heterosexual couples. The results revealed that same‐sex couples who had a marriage‐like commitment had stable unions regardless of government recognition. A variety of predictors of relationship dissolution for heterosexual and for same‐sex couples are explored.     

Young adults’ hopes for the long-term future: from re-enchantment with technology to faith in humanity

Recent scholarly research has claimed that young people are predominantly concerned with their immediate ‘horizon of planning’, resulting in an outlook upon the future that is dominated by present-day concerns. By distinguishing between choices and plans, on the one hand, and hope and faith, on the other, this article analyses how young people relate to the future through their attitudes about responsibility and technology in order to complicate this narrative. The data are drawn from an interview project in which 28 young adults (aged 18–34) discuss both their own future and a general idea of the future of society. Two key findings are discussed. Firstly, respondents are found to place faith in the potential of technology to mitigate future predicaments, and secondly, respondents are found to ascribe mystical or magical qualities to technology. Drawing on these findings, this article suggests that the oft-cited attitude that technology will develop in time to meet the needs of the future does not simply signify a deferral of responsibility onto future generations. Instead, by drawing on scholarship on re-enchantment it is argued that for young adults technological development can represent a refuge of faith and hope for the future.     

HRD in 2020: a hop-on,hop-off city tour

This article reports on the outcome of a Future Search Conference in the UK to consider human resource development (HRD) in 2020 and beyond. We firstly consider themes from the past into the present. This includes the persistence of solutions in HRD that are systematic, predictable, how apprenticeships in the UK have had to accommodate government policies to ameliorate youth unemployment and the long-standing difficulty for HRD of failing to demonstrate a return on investment (ROI) on activities. We then present four scenarios based on key questions for the future relating to value of HRD and whether this will be a future for HRD. Reponses to the questions form scenario logics which we present against the theme of city tour. Each scenario is explained against the presented logic with positive, negative, ambiguous and uncertain implications for HRD. We suggest that each scenario carries a glimpse of what might be.     

山西省长治市回族女寺调查研究--以长治市回族聚居区"三道营"为例

女寺是长治市回族文化的一个重要构成要素.本文在田野作业的基础上,分析了女寺的现状及其在长治回族社会中所起的作用,并对其未来的发展做了一些思考.     

“互联网+”时代高校教育与管理的变革与展望

“互联网+”时代高校传统教育与管理面临着前所未有的新形势和新挑战,在“互联网+”和高校信息化建设的时代背景下,高校必须要把握变革机遇、重塑管理理念观念、树立互联网思维,准确理解“互联网+”校园的理念和内涵,将新一代信息技术充分应用并深度融入高校教育教学、管理服务中,以构建智能化、智慧型校园为切入点,推进高校信息化校园建设,促进我国高等教育转型升级和一流大学、一流学科建设.     

基于AutoCAD的烘干筒底盘装配图的设计

在介绍烘干筒的结构和原理的基础上,对烘干筒底盘参数进行设计,并利用二次开发手段对底盘进行程序设计,从运行结果看,能实现对烘干筒底盘装配图的自动设计.