安徽省退耕还林绩效与后续发展研究

分析了安徽省退耕还林的绩效和后续发展中存在的问题,指出退耕还林对安徽的生态环境改善和经济发展都起到了明显的促进作用,但由于国家和农户目标的差异以及挤出效应的存在,应加大公共支出、加大科技投入力度和不断完善激励措施,进一步巩固安徽省退耕还林成果.     

牛津高中英语教材本土文化调查分析

在文化教学渐渐引起国内外学者关注的时候,牛津版高中英语教材作为新一代教材的成功典范在文化导入方面已经给予重视,而在本土文化的导入中是否也达到了新课标的要求？笔者以牛津版高中英语教材九级水平为评测目标,以教材的9、10、11三个模块为研究对象,设计本调查力求回答上述问题,并指出该教材中存在的问题。     

International Trade and the Urbanization of Developing Countries: Evidence from Asia

Abstract

A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanisms whereby changes in the grain surplus constrain the level of urbanization in a closed economy context and the grain trade affects the level of urbanization by acting on the grain surplus in an open economy context. A test of the theoretical model applied to some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010 shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with level of urbanization. However, cereal and non-cereal trade vary in terms of their relation to urbanization: whereas the former is positively correlated with level of urbanization, the latter is negatively correlated with it. Since the net import of cereals relaxes the constraint imposed on the level of urbanization by the domestic grain surplus, it can have a marked positive effect on the course of urbanization. Our research findings show that provided grain production or grain security is guaranteed, developing countries may adopt a policy of importing an appropriate amount of grain to increase their level of urbanization.     

首都粮食系统安全保障体系研究

分析了首都粮食流通体系的现状及问题，提出了建设首都粮食流通聚集区的设想，开展了必要性分析、立地与规模需求分析，提出了建设思路、运作模式和运营重点。     

基于自组织算法的改进型GAANN预测模型

在传统的基于GA算法人工神经网络的基础上作了改进,将训练集分为两部分,在前一训练集训练后获得的网络基础上使用后一训练集进行进一步的训练获得更为优化的网络结构。针对复杂系统建模输入节点难以确定的问题,提出将其与自组织理论相结合,首先使用GMDH方法获得神经网络的初始化节点,然后使用训练好的神经网络模型进行预测。最后,将由此建立的预测模型应用于国家粮食产量预测,取得了令人满意的效果。     

联结主义理论与英语阅读教学

联结主义理论给英语教学新的启示。本文在理论分析的基础上,结合英语阅读教学的现状和个人教学实践,提出了阅读教学中应用联结主义的教学步骤。探讨了强化注意程度,激活输入的语言信息,提高输出意识的教学方法。     

Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.

Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors). Invoking the principles of input-output (I-O) and decomposition analysis, the article offers a framework for describing how terrorism-induced perturbations can propagate due to interconnectedness. Data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is utilized to present applications to serve as test beds for the proposed framework. Specifically, a case study estimating the economic impact of airline demand perturbations to national-level U.S. sectors is made possible using I-O matrices. A ranking of the affected sectors according to their vulnerability to perturbations originating from a primary sector (e.g., air transportation) can serve as important input to risk management. For example, limited resources can be prioritized for the "top-n" sectors that are perceived to suffer the greatest economic losses due to terrorism. In addition, regional decomposition via location quotients enables the analysis of local-level terrorism events. The Regional I-O Multiplier System II (RIMS II) Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is the agency responsible for releasing the regional multipliers for various geographical resolutions (economic areas, states, and counties). A regional-level case study demonstrates a process of estimating the economic impact of transportation-related scenarios on industry sectors within Economic Area 010 (the New York metropolitan region and vicinities).     

政策转移的若干理论问题探究

政策转移是全球化时代各国公共政策制定领域的普遍现象。西方政治学界对政策转移的研究始于20世纪90年代，在政策转移的衡量标准、分析框架等方面英国学者进行了探讨。但总体来看，政策转移的研究仍存在诸多盲点。我国国内对政策转移的研究目前刚刚起步，许多问题都处于模糊状态，特别是政策转移的基本理论问题亟待探讨，诸如政策转移的内涵与衡量标准，政策转移的发生前提与条件，政策转移的要素、类型与途径，政策转移的性质与特点，政策转移的功能与作用等都需要深入研究。     

我国粮食供求调节机制的选择与转换

通过对我国粮食供求矛盾的系统分析,提出了我国粮食经济发展的三大目标;而要实现此目标,就必须选择适合我国国情的粮食供求调节机制--有限约束的市场均衡机制.在此基础上,提出了机制转换的条件及加快机制转换的对策.     

义和团运动与晚清漕粮运输

义和团运动对晚清的漕粮运输产生了重大影响.首先,义和团运动爆发后,八国联军侵华,占领津京等地区,慈禧太后挟光绪帝出逃,导致漕粮海运中断,并转而将部分漕粮向山西、陕西运送.其次.义和团运动被镇压后,朝廷被迫与联军签定<辛丑条约>,偿付巨额赔款,清朝的财政体系完全崩溃.为筹措赔款,清廷不得不颁布"漕粮改折诏".虽然江浙后来又恢复本色100万石,但漕运制度已经遭到致命打击.再次,为节省费用,清廷开始采纳铁路剥漕的方式,结果成为继轮船之后,漕粮运输工具史上的又一重大突破.简言之,义和团运动是晚清漕粮运输的转折点.