Recurrence in Workers' Compensation Claims: Estimates from a Multiple Spell Hazard Model

This paper estimates both single and multiple spell hazard models using a sample of workers' compensation claims (with soft tissue musculoskeletal injuries) from Ontario, Canada. Most of the results in this paper are consistent with the estimates in the existing literature. However, the duration elasticities for workers' compensation benefits and pre-injury earnings from the multiple spell hazard models are much larger than the estimates from the single spell models. This suggests that the estimates in existing literature that use single spell hazard models may underestimate the effect of benefits and pre-injury earnings on the duration of soft tissue musculoskeletal claims.     

Classification with minimum ambiguity under distribution heterogeneity

The traditional classification is based on the assumption that distribution of indicator variable X in one class is homogeneous. However, when data in one class comes from heterogeneous distribution, the likelihood ratio of two classes is not unique. In this paper, we construct the classification via an ambiguity criterion for the case of distribution heterogeneity of X in a single class. The separated historical data in each situation are used to estimate the thresholds respectively. The final boundary is chosen as the maximum and minimum thresholds from all situations. Our approach obtains the minimum ambiguity with a high classification accuracy allowing for a precise decision. In addition, nonparametric estimation of the classification region and theoretical properties are derived. Simulation study and real data analysis are reported to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.     

A varying coefficient approach to estimating hedonic housing price functions and their quantiles

The varying coefficient (VC) model introduced by Hastie and Tibshirani [26 T. Hastie and R. Tibshirani, Varying-coefficient models, J. R. Statist. Soc. (Ser. B) 55 (1993), pp. 757–796.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] is arguably one of the most remarkable recent developments in nonparametric regression theory. The VC model is an extension of the ordinary regression model where the coefficients are allowed to vary as smooth functions of an effect modifier possibly different from the regressors. The VC model reduces the modelling bias with its unique structure while also avoiding the ‘curse of dimensionality’ problem. While the VC model has been applied widely in a variety of disciplines, its application in economics has been minimal. The central goal of this paper is to apply VC modelling to the estimation of a hedonic house price function using data from Hong Kong, one of the world's most buoyant real estate markets. We demonstrate the advantages of the VC approach over traditional parametric and semi-parametric regressions in the face of a large number of regressors. We further combine VC modelling with quantile regression to examine the heterogeneity of the marginal effects of attributes across the distribution of housing prices.     

房价波动、 收入水平对住房消费的影响——基于SYS-GMM估计方法的区域差异分析

基于生命周期-持久收入假说,在一般随机Ramsey模型的基础上,推导包含房价、收入和财富的住房消费函数,利用2002年至2013年31个省直辖市的面板数据,采用两步System-GMM估计方法考察我国房价波动和居民收入水平对住房消费的影响.实证结果表明:房价波动对全国居民住房消费具有显著的抑制作用;其中,滞后期和当期房价波动与当期住房消费负相关,挤出效应明显;未来一期房价波动与住房消费变化方向一致,存在积极的财富效应;此外,房价波动对东中西部各地区居民住房消费的抑制作用存在较大差异,西部地区抑制效应最为明显;滞后期住房消费与当期住房消费变动方向一致,人均可支配收入波动和人均年底储蓄余额对我国人均住房消费都起着重要的支撑作用.     

Entrenchment in publicly traded family firms: Evidence from the S&P 500

Family involvement in corporate governance through ownership, management, and board membership presents a unique dilemma for understanding the strategic impetus and costs of entrenchment decisions. The presence of shared family ties and the family-centered goals of firm principals call to question the applicability of extant agency arguments regarding the nature and antecedents of managerial entrenchment. Exploring this, we develop and test a model of family firm-specific determinants (i.e., family ownership and family's involvement in management and governance) of entrenchment in publicly traded firms by drawing upon principal-principal agency theory. Findings of the empirical analysis of family owned S&P 500 firms suggest family firms are motivated to entrench managers when doing so supports the pursuit of family-centric goals. However, the extent to which entrenchment supports such goals varies at different levels of family ownership.     

竞争环境下的以旧换新策略

企业通过对拥有旧产品的老消费者提供以旧换新补贴能够提升自身销量与利润。然而,面临竞争对手时企业的以旧换新决策是否会受到影响?本文求解了先后进入市场的双寡头竞争企业所面临的以旧换新与定价博弈均衡,并分析了竞争存在与否对于企业以旧换新策略产生的影响。研究结果表明,第一,面对竞争时企业的定价决策受到市场中老消费者比例、两家竞争企业各自新产品的创新提升水平、老产品的使用残值这四个因素的共同影响。第二,当老产品残值相对较低而市场中老消费者数量适中时,两企业均不提供以旧换新可能成为博弈均衡,而其他条件下,两企业均提供以旧换新为博弈均衡。第三,先进入的企业没有动机单独为消费者提供以旧换新补贴。第四,竞争对手的存在对于先进入企业自身的以旧换新决策与相应的定价策略都产生了显著的影响。     

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications.     

台湾诗歌对后现代主义的接受与变形

台湾诗歌在 80年代对西方后现代主义文学的选择和接受具有一种历史必然性 ,这使得台湾诗歌典范发生了三种变动 ,即 :反纯粹性的本文混杂 ;反深度的事物本原化 ;反确定性的语符游戏。由于受时代的、民族精神的和文化心理的影响 ,台湾诗歌理论与创作又呈现了在特殊接受语境中发生的变异 ,即 :台湾诗人对“本体”的怀疑是一种方法论意义上的怀疑 ;他们将语义的不确定性往往归结于语言本身的局限性     

城市社区异质性与邻里社会资本研究

我国社会结构的剧烈变迁加深了社区人口的异质性,这种结构性的变化将对城市邻里的社会资本产生重大影响。关于社区内部异质性对邻里社会资本的作用,国内外学者看法不一。在剖析争论的基础上,本文提出了一种分类研究框架,认为社区内部异质性对两种性质的社会资本具有不同的影响。社区内部异质性的增大会抑制整合性的社会资本,但有可能促进链合性的社会资本。     

人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应

人力资本梯度升级是指人力资本由低至高逐步跃迁的高级化过程,其可能通过促进产业结构升级、技术创新作用于经济增长。利用2000—2015年全国30个省级行政区面板数据,实证分析了人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应。研究发现:人力资本梯度升级对经济增长有显著的促进效应,第三梯度人力资本对经济增长促进效应最强。人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应存在时间和地区异质性:随时间的推进,人力资本梯度升级对经济增长的促进效应逐渐增强;东部和高经济发展地区人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应要高于西部和低经济发展地区。基于以上结论,为推动经济长期增长进一步提出可行的对策建议。