Robust block bootstrap panel predictability tests*

This article develops two block bootstrap-based panel predictability test procedures that are valid under very general conditions. Some of the allowable features include cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneous predictive slopes, persistent predictors, and complex error dynamics, including cross-unit endogeneity. While the first test procedure tests if there is any predictability at all, the second procedure determines the units for which predictability holds in case of a rejection by the first. A weak unit root framework is adopted to allow persistent predictors, and a novel theory is developed to establish asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap. Simulations are used to evaluate the performance of our tests in small samples, and their implementation is illustrated through an empirical application to stock returns.     

How national identification matters: the development of European identification among established ethnic minority groups

Based upon the data from qualitative studies of eight national minorities between the Baltic and the Danube, this article investigates the formation of European identification among members of the minority groups representing ‘split nations’ along the new eastern borders of the enlarged EU. The analysis reveals mechanisms of the formation of supranational identification by focusing on the relationships between subnational, national and European identifications to ascertain the degree of interconnectedness of these identification levels. These relationships are examined in the context of the potential impact of perceived ethnic conflict and utilitarian expectations of socio-economic and cultural gains from the process of European integration.     

从实务案例出发谈债务加入的认定方式与追偿问题

关于债务加入虽然我国法律上并无明文规定，但自“苏高发审委[2005]16号纪要”首先提出来之后，无论是法学理论上还是法律实务上均成为讨论和应用的热点。笔者以审判实践中遇到的一种特殊情况为出发点，旨在通过争议焦点分析的方式对债权人做出的替保证人还款这一情况应认定为债务加入，并以案例分析的方式系统的展示债务加入的认定方式，并在最后分析了债务加入人履行了债务之后应如何追偿的问题，希望能够作为在实务中分析认定债务加入的有效借鉴。     

Reflective Supervision for Child Protection Practice – Reaching Beneath the Surface

This paper describes a model of reflective supervision for child protection practice that is informed by psychoanalytic theory. Eileen Munro promotes the idea of depth in practice, referring to the skills and knowledge required to undertake the work. Her reports highlight the importance of supervision to provide a thinking space for practitioners where reflection can take place. This paper will explore the importance of supervision in more depth and describe how psychoanalytic ideas can help us understand the complexities of our work with families, anchoring us to a solid theoretical base and helping to make sense of the maelstrom of feelings that are stirred in us as well as in our colleagues and clients.     

基层党员坚定“四个自信”的实证研究——以浙江省嵊泗县为例

“四个自信”是党的最新理论成果，其对基层党员的影响理应是深远的。通过问卷、访谈以及文献分析等方法调查了以浙江省嵊泗县为代表的基层党员对“四个自信”的坚定状况。调研结果表明：其在总体上的坚定情况是可喜的，但也存在不少问题。通过对比参与调查的基层党员和非党员对在中国特色社会主义理论、道路、制度和文化等方面的差异，从民生问题、贫富差距扩大趋势、理论宣传教育程度和发展实际问题等方面分析原因，并据此提出了相应对策。     

Supporting the democratic political organisation of Muslim immigrants: the perspective of Muslims in the Netherlands and Germany

Using data from three survey studies, this paper examines the support for the democratic political organisation of Muslims among Muslim immigrants in the Netherlands (Studies 1, 2, and 3) and Germany (Study 3). Using a social psychological perspective, support is examined in relation to religious group identification, Muslim linked fate, perceived discrimination, fundamentalist religious belief, and host national identification. The findings in all three studies show support for the political organisation of Muslims. Furthermore, higher religious group identification and higher linked fate were associated with stronger support. More discrimination and more fundamentalist beliefs were also associated with stronger support, and part of these associations was mediated by linked fate. National identification was not associated with support for the political organisation of Muslims.     

高职《化工单元操作技术》课程改革中学生创新能力培养的探索与实践

目前,高职高专教育教学正在进行深层次的改革,工学结合的课程改革是高职高专教育面临的核心任务,而创新能力的培养则是高职高专课程改革的重要内容。在《化工单元操作技术》课程改革中,从教学模式、教学方式方法、教学评价体系和技能竞赛活动等方面进行了一系列探索,推进了学生创新能力的培养。     

农民社会阶层越高越幸福吗?——基于CGSS 2010-2015年数据的微观分析

针对农民社会阶层与幸福感问题，通过分析2010-2015年“中国综合社会调查”数据，采用有序响应Logit模型估计，实证检验了农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应。研究发现，农民社会阶层定位存在幸福效应，社会阶层定位越高的农民，其幸福感越强；进一步区域比较发现，此幸福效应在经济发达地区最为显著；而户籍比较发现，农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应低于城镇居民；但从发展趋势来看，农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应较10年前有所增强，且农民对社会阶层定位有较为乐观的预期。据此提出，民生建设中重视农民的发展诉求和精神需求，融通农民社会阶层上升的渠道，从而提高农民幸福感，保障农民公平共享社会发展的成果。     

The belonging model of trust

Although we know that high‐quality employee–organization relationships are beneficial, these relationships are complex and not fully understood, especially among employees of nonprofit organizations. In particular, we know little about how these employees perceive trust, which may overlook an important contributor to effective management. We begin to address this issue by testing a new theoretical model that conceptualizes perceived insider status, psychological ownership, and organizational identification as foundations for the perception of justice and subsequent trust. Our results indicate that psychological ownership and perceived insider status relate to trust through procedural and interpersonal justice. These results contrast those typically found in for‐profit contexts in that organizational identification did not predict justice and that distributive and informational justice did not predict trust.