Sensitivity,uncertainty, and decision analyses in the prioritization of research

The evaluation of hazards from complex, large scale, technologically advanced systems often requires the construction of computer implemented mathematical models. These models are used to evaluate the safety of the systems and to evaluate the consequences of modifications to the systems. These evaluations, however, are normally surrounded by significant uncertainties related to the uncertainty inherent in natural phenomena such as the weather and those related to uncertainties in the parameters and models used in the evaluation.

Another use of these models is to evaluate strategies for improving information used in the modeling process itself. While sensitivity analysis is useful in defining variables in the model that are important, uncertainty analysis provides a tool for assessing the importance of uncertainty about these variables. A third complementary technique, is decision analysis. It provides a methodology for explicitly evaluating and ranking potential improvements to the model. Its use in the development of information gathering strategies for a nuclear waste repository are discussed in this paper.     

阿尔及利亚D 区块储层特征及影响因素分析

下泥盆Siegenian 组砂岩储层是阿尔及利亚D 区块的主要勘探目的层。研究其储层特征及控制因素对勘探潜力的评价及后期开发有着重要的指导意义。经过研究，块内砂岩类型主要为石英砂岩，岩屑石英砂岩，储层储集空间主要为各种类型的次生孔隙和少量的裂缝，原生粒间孔不发育，多为粒间溶孔、粒内溶孔及微裂隙。孔隙结构主要为中小孔微细喉，储层物性较差，为中低孔、特低渗储层类储层；储层性质主要受到沉积条件和成岩作用的控制，成岩作用中以压实作用和溶蚀作用对储层物性影响最大，其次是胶结作用和交代作用。     

Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故单危险源风险度量模型研究

本文研究了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故危险源的分类,把危险源划分为人的不安全行为、机器设备不安全状态、环境不安全特征和管理缺陷四大类,并根据煤矿现场调查各类危险源的数据以及相应数学方法的特点,提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故人、机器设备(物)、环境、管理四类危险源的风险度量方法,在此基础上构建四类危险源的风险度量模型。研究表明,危险源的风险度量模型由风险发生的可能性、危险源重要度以及事故导致的损失构成;危险源风险发生的可能性,在具体应用中可以采用各类危险源的不可靠度、故障率等来衡量;危险源在事故中的重要度可以通过分析事故故障树种要素结构重要性获取。根据风险评价的结果,可以对危险源进行分级排序,从而为煤矿事故单危险源的控制提供依据。     

Psychological Testing in Child Custody Evaluations With Ethnically Diverse Families: Ethical Concerns and Practice Recommendations

Given increasing ethnic diversity of divorcing families, it is more important than ever for family court evaluators to understand the ethical concerns and principles underlying the use of psychological testing with ethnic family members. Major professional organizations have promulgated the guidelines of child custody evaluation with an imperative to consider cultural factors in the evaluation. However, there is a paucity of literature that addresses ethnicity and psychological testing in child custody evaluations. This article addresses three major ethical domains: (a) competence, (b) test fairness, and (c) test interpretation when psychological tests are used. Practice recommendations provide guidelines to ensure ethical standards and competence in using psychological testing with ethnically diverse families in child custody and other family court evaluations.     

Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

How to Evaluate Government Performance while Building a Rule of Law Government in China*

Building a law-based government is a central element of the comprehensive framework for promoting the rule of law in China, while using evaluation to catalyze growth is in line with the incentive principle of management studies. Since China started to implement reform and opening up over thirty years ago, rule of law development and organizational evaluation have gone through several stages, each with different characteristics. Efforts to build a law-based government have met with success, but what the country now has is essentially still goal-oriented assessment. At present, this suffers from the lack of a clear goal orientation or definition of functions, an imperfect technical system and unsound motivation mechanisms, not to mention the practical problems of each government department going its own way, duplicating evaluations or being left rudderless. Drawing on a combination of value rationality and instrumental rationality and using government performance evaluation to promote the building of a law-based government not only conforms to the spirit of the rule of law and value rationality in government performance, but also strengthens the role of evaluation as an instrument for organizational management. Therefore, we need to create new evaluation theories, expand public participation, introducing diversified evaluating entities, improve technical systems, strengthen institutional buildup, and foster a performance-based culture. In addition, replacing goal-oriented assessment with performance evaluation will help the emergence of a new discipline—the performance evaluation of rule of law government, thus promoting multidisciplinary efforts to integrate and create new public administration theories in China.     

How Can Low‐income Countries Gain from a Framework Agreement on Climate Change? An Analysis with Integrated Assessment Modelling

By using the integrated assessment model RICE this article carries out a scenario analysis with different assumptions about international negotiations on climate change, in particular hypothesising about reduction in targets for greenhouse gas emissions, technology transfers and financial transfer programmes. It finds that, in terms of growth, developing countries and in particular sub‐Saharan Africa will benefit from agreements that reduce the level of pollution and promote technological diffusion. Moreover, when developed countries are subject to emissions limits and poor regions have no such commitments, financial transfers from rich to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation enhance pro‐poor growth and help the effectiveness of poor countries in reducing emissions.     

Social impacts evaluation and insider-outsider paradigm: Floodwater spreading project on the Gareh-Bygone plain as an illustrative case

Selection of the appropriate social impact evaluation approach has become an important issue in agricultural and rural development projects in developing countries. The aim of this research was to use the lens of insider-outsider or mutual social impact assessment approach to assess the social impacts of floodwater spreading project (FWSP) on the Gareh-Bygone plain, Iran. A survey methodology with systematic sampling techniques was used to select 138 households as insider group in four villages’ of the Gareh-Bygone plain which is covered by FWSP. Furthermore, key person interview was used to assess the viewpoints of experts (outsider group) who had close, ongoing involvement with the project. Result indicated that the experts’ viewpoints were more positive towards social impacts of the project. Whereas, the project had some negative and positive social impacts from the local people point of view.     

An empirical assessment of writing and research proficiency in HBCU social work students

ABSTRACT

Lack of proficiency in writing and research among social work students has increasingly concerned social work educators and practitioners. Given the significance of written communication with clients and emphasis on evidence-based practice in the field of social work, it is critical to assess students’ competence in both writing and research. However, deficit-based approaches to assessing writing and research competence have disadvantaged students at historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). This pilot study aims to assess writing and research proficiency of HBCU master’s of social work (MSW) students through empirical analysis of their capstone papers and surveys from educators to provide implications for developing a writing and research manual for social work programs at HBCUs. Ten capstone papers were randomly selected and qualitatively analyzed; nine faculty and one field supervisor completed the survey, and their respondents were analyzed using cross-case analysis. Analyses of the capstone papers identified two themes for writing and research domains, respectively: (1) weakness in developing statements and lack of knowledge of writing style and (2) plagiarism and lack of understanding of research structure. Moreover, analyses of the surveys revealed four themes regarding assessment of writing and research skills among students struggling with basic writing mechanics, indicating that HBCU MSW students may have potential and capacity for learning, as evidenced by their ideas and critical thinking skills. These findings suggest both teaching- and research-oriented programs could employ the proposed writing and research assessment manual, as well as a writing and research lab/center for improving writing and research skills among their students.