观念竞合与国际体系的变迁

观念在国际关系中的作用及重要性已是不言而喻。在过去的四百多年里，国家主义和保守主义分别主导、塑造了威斯特伐利亚体系及维也纳体系，而威尔逊式的理想主义虽然塑造了凡尔赛—华盛顿体系，但主导该时期的却是激进主义。直到雅尔塔体系时期，民族主义才终于打败了帝国主义，自由主义则成功战胜了极权主义。因此，国际体系确立的背后是观念分配竞合的结果，是主流观念取向在竞合中占据主导地位的过程。观念作为深层次因素，始终是影响、塑造国际体系的更新与变迁的不可或缺的力量。     

A segmented regime-switching model with its application to stock market indices

This paper evaluates the ability of a Markov regime-switching log-normal (RSLN) model to capture the time-varying features of stock return and volatility. The model displays a better ability to depict a fat tail distribution as compared with using a log-normal model, which means that the RSLN model can describe observed market behavior better. Our major objective is to explore the capability of the model to capture stock market behavior over time. By analyzing the behavior of calibrated regime-switching parameters over different lengths of time intervals, the change-point concept is introduced and an algorithm is proposed for identifying the change-points in the series corresponding to the times when there are changes in parameter estimates. This algorithm for identifying change-points is tested on the Standard and Poor's 500 monthly index data from 1971 to 2008, and the Nikkei 225 monthly index data from 1984 to 2008. It is evident that the change-points we identify match the big events observed in the US stock market and the Japan stock market (e.g., the October 1987 stock market crash), and that the segmentations of stock index series, which are defined as the periods between change-points, match the observed bear–bull market phases.     

现代科学技术发展之哲学思考

现代科学技术的发展 ,尤其是信息技术、生物技术和新材料技术发展十分迅猛 ,而控制论、信息论和系统论又为现代科学技术的发展提供了崭新的思想和方法 ,推动了各门边缘学科和综合性学科的发展 ,并随着人类认识功能的深化 ,以及科学研究方法的不断完善 ,越来越深刻地反映着大自然、人类和社会的真实图景。     

An Enhanced Double MEWMA Controller for Drifted MIMO Systems

For a drifted multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) system, the double multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (dMEWMA) controller is a popular run-to-run (RTR) controller for adjusting the process mean to a desired target. The stability and performance of dMEWMA controller had been widely studied in literature. Although the dMEWMA controller (with suitable discount matrices) can guarantee long-term stability, it usually requires a moderately large number of runs to bring the process output to approach its desired target if the initial recipe is not chosen appropriately. Due to the initial recipe possibly having an infinite number of feasible solutions for MIMO systems, “how to determine an optimal setting for the initial recipe” turns out to be an interesting research topic. In this article, by solving a constrained optimization problem, we first obtain an optimal initial setting for the input recipe. Then, motivated by this setting, we propose an enhanced dMEWMA controller. The long-term stability conditions and short-term performance of the proposed controller are also addressed. Given a fixed and finite production run, it reveals that the proposed controller has the ability of reducing total mean squared error (TMSE) better than the conventional dMEWMA controller.     

Limited information bayesian analysis of a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system

An analytical expression is obtained for the marginal posterior density for a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system based on a limited information Bayesian analysis. A con- ditional posterior density is obtained given reduced form para- meters. This conditional posterior density is in univariate student t form. Numerical examples suggest that the conditional density hasa tighter distribution around the posterior mean than the unconditional density when the correlation between the endo- genous variables and the structural error term is high.     

《世界经济地理》教材编写体系研究

本文从理论上探讨世界经济地理研究的依据和体系，指出现行教材编写存在的问题，提出编写的新建议。认为世界经济地理侧重研究经济区→经济地域→经济地域系统及其运动规律，认为存在世界和国家级区域级别差异。为此，本文认为教材编写时要强调条件要素要与经济地域和经济地域系统形成发展过程一起进行论述，要突出研究对象的等级层次关系，突出城市或城市群的地位与作用，并要加强国家经济国际化进程对经济地域形成发展的影响作用。     

功能性能分离的可信服务构件模型

为了向分布式实时嵌入式系统(DRES)的运行过程提供可信保障服务,方便上层应用程序的开发,提出了一种针对DRES的可信构件服务模型QUOCCM。该模型将系统功能实现与性能确保分离开,把应用程序的性能确保模块抽象成通用的服务确保构件,为运行于动态环境下的应用程序提供自适应的可信保障服务。该文以一个模拟实现的飞行控制系统验证了QUOCCM模型的可行性和灵活性。     

Local Administrative Practice and AFDC Error in Maryland

Data from two Maryland AFDC quality control samples (n=2376) are joined with data from two surveys of local administrative practices to examine administrative correlates of error. Less error exists among cases processed by agencies that: 1) use checklists to simplify agency procedures, 2) use follow-up controls in conjunction with tickler files, 3) have in-house training to deal with earned income procedures, 4) provide training on reducing earned income errors, and 5) have less staff turnover. Surprisingly, the findings show client error to be more influenced by administrative practices than agency error, suggesting the distinction between the two may be misleading.     

聚合物/表面活性剂二元复合驱研究进展

从聚合物/表面活性剂二元体系的特点出发，综述了聚/表聚/表二元复合体系的实验室研究现状以及在胜利油田孤东七区54-61进行的矿场试验情况。聚/表二元复合驱是在聚/表/碱三元复合驱的基础上去掉碱所形成的低浓度的驱油体系，可以最大限度地发挥聚合物的粘度和弹性，减少乳化液处理带来的负面影响，减弱由于碱的存在引起的地层以及井筒结垢的现象。通过国内外研究结果分析表明，聚/表二元复合体系提高原油采收率幅度在20%左右；矿场试验取得了较好的效果。聚/表二元复合体系可以克服三元体系的缺点，作为一项新的驱油方法具有宽阔的发展空间。     

高职《财经写作》课程项目教学体系研究

转变高职教育传统的教学模式是一项重要的、具有创新意义的工作。建构主义学习理论、情境学习理论和杜威的实用主义教育理论成为构建高职财经写作课程项目教学新体系的理论依据。该课程项目教学新体系强调：以企业实际工作为行动导向，以具体情境为教学项目，以学生为主体组织教学活动，以多样化的解决问题的方法拓展学生思路，真正做到“学中做、做中用、用中学”。