货币政策规则对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变影响——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证检验

本文从货币政策理论出发,构建以稳定国际资本流动与人民币汇率的“多目标”货币政策规则理论模型,并采用1998年1月至2019年11月的月度数据,建立开放经济下的TVP-SV-VAR模型,实证检验不同货币政策规则下货币供应冲击、利率冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变与动态影响。结果表明：(1)不同时间阶段,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响存在较强的时变特征。(2)等间隔脉冲响应表明,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动的短期影响效应要高于中长期,而对人民币汇率的影响却存在一定滞后性和扩散性,且价格型规则更有利于熨平外部冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的影响。(3)时点脉冲响应表明,利率冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响弱于货币供应冲击,且利率冲击对国际资本流动的影响回到稳态均衡的速度更快。总体来看,在调节国际资本流动和稳定人民币汇率的效果上,价格型规则优于数量型规则,我国央行货币政策选择应逐步从数量型规则向价格型规则转变。     

六角芯棒角隅的测量方法及精度分析

简要论述了桑塔纳车灯ＲＲ反射器的加工模具单元器件六角芯棒的结构特点以及对其角隅的测量方法,最后给出了这一测量方法的精度分析．     

流动注射─—化学发光法同时测定痕量Cr(Ⅵ)/Cr(Ⅲ)

提出一个反相流动注射-化学发光法同时测定Cr（Ⅵ）Gr(Ⅲ）的方法,基于皮素－H2O2－Cr（Ⅵ）－KOH化学发光反应直接测定Cr（Ⅵ）;Cr（Ⅲ）在PbO2柱氧化后测定．方法简单,快速,检测限为1．0×10－9Cr（Ⅵ）,线性范围为1．0×10－8~1．0×10－6g/mlCr（Ⅵ）,用于淮河水样分析,结果满意．     

半导体激光器的光学准直

对半导体激光器进行光学准直是空间光通信系统必须进行的重要工作。文中简述了准直通常使用的方法,测试了使用单透镜对一种３５ｍＷ半导体激光器的准直结果,准直效率约为６０％,准直后的发射角为０４～０７５ｍｒａｄ。     

宏观连续交通流数值模拟

应用交通流宏观连续模型,模拟上下游信号灯作异步周期变化的协调信号灯路段的交通流动,经数值计算比较,选择改进Ｍｕｒｍａｎ格式求解．结果表明：改进Ｍｕｒｍａｎ格式能准确捕捉交通流中无振荡“激波”位置．     

Optimization Model and Algorithm for Crew Management During Airline Irregular Operations

Airline irregular operations have long been a realm where human experience and judgement are the most important tools to utilize. Crew management during irregular operations is usually the bottleneck of the whole system-recovering process due to complicated crew schedules and restrictive crew legalities as well as the size and scope of the hub-and-spoke networks adopted by major carriers. A system-wide multi-commodity integer network flow model and a heuristic search algorithm for the above purpose are presented and discussed in this paper. The computational experiences show that the algorithm is efficient enough to solve problems of realistic size and also has the flexibility to accommodate practical business requirements.     

基于向量夹角余弦的组合预测模型的性质研究

基于向量夹角余弦的组合预测是一种相关性的组合预测模型,它是研究组合预测方法的一个新途经.针对基于向量夹角余弦准则下组合预测模型,研究它的基本结构特征.首先提出新的优性组合预测、预测方法优超、冗余度等概念.然后探讨了非劣性组合预测、优性组合预测以及冗余预测方法的存在性,并给出冗余信息的判定定理.最后进行实例分析,表明该方法有较大的实际应用价值.     

Inverse Combinatorial Optimization: A Survey on Problems, Methods, and Results

Given a (combinatorial) optimization problem and a feasible solution to it, the corresponding inverse optimization problem is to find a minimal adjustment of the cost function such that the given solution becomes optimum.Several such problems have been studied in the last twelve years. After formalizing the notion of an inverse problem and its variants, we present various methods for solving them. Then we discuss the problems considered in the literature and the results that have been obtained. Finally, we formulate some open problems.     

Zen and the art of aut-ethnography: a tribute to Robert M. Pirsig

With the passing of Robert M. Pirsig, I felt that it was an appropriate time to write a tribute to his work and the influence it has had on my own theorising in regard to autistic ways of being. This reflection utilises the concept of an ‘aut-ethnography’ to examine passages that I had highlighted word by word when I first read Pirsig’s book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. These fragments contain links to a number of theoretical ‘lines of flight’ within my own work and that of others, from his concepts of dynamic ‘quality’ to his discussion on the tension between scientific method and lived experience.     

Limit Theorems for Semi-Markov Queues and Their Applications

We begin by definition of semi-Markov flow and discussion of its properties. Asymptotic behavior of multi-server and single-server queueing systems is studied under assumption of time-compression or service time growth. The results obtained are used for calculation of large systems reliability. Statistical estimates of parameters involved are also provided.