构建电子政务系统的研究

文章介绍了电子政务的内涵及其基本内容 ,分析了实施电子政务的意义 ,指出了实施电子政务的基本原则 ,提出了构建电子政务系统的网络模型和层次模型。     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the mean of a population containing many zero values

If a population contains many zero values and the sample size is not very large, the traditional normal approximation‐based confidence intervals for the population mean may have poor coverage probabilities. This problem is substantially reduced by constructing parametric likelihood ratio intervals when an appropriate mixture model can be found. In the context of survey sampling, however, there is a general preference for making minimal assumptions about the population under study. The authors have therefore investigated the coverage properties of nonparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the population mean. They show that under a variety of hypothetical populations, these intervals often outperformed parametric likelihood intervals by having more balanced coverage rates and larger lower bounds. The authors illustrate their methodology using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the year 2000.     

WTO与政府经济管理

加入WTO不仅使政府的经济管理理念、方式、程序等产生全新的变革,而且引发了政府经济管理的重新定位,更进一步强化了政府的服务职能。重新建构政府经济管理体制,转变政府职能,以应对WTO的挑战,从而实现政府经济管理的创新,增强政府经济管理能力。     

期权定价理论在技术商品定价中的应用探讨

技术商品不同于一般商品 ,具有报酬无限、风险有限的特性 ,尤其与支付红利的美式看涨期权特点极为相似。应用传统的资产评估方法为技术商品定价 ,其结果很难真实反映技术商品的价值。期权定价理论为技术商品的科学定价提供了一种新思路 ,特别是支付红利的美式看涨期权定价模型对解决技术商品价值评估有参考价值     

Bayesian analysis of mixture modelling using the multivariate t distribution

A finite mixture model using the multivariate t distribution has been shown as a robust extension of normal mixtures. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for inference about parameters of t-mixture models. The specifications of prior distributions are weakly informative to avoid causing nonintegrable posterior distributions. We present two efficient EM-type algorithms for computing the joint posterior mode with the observed data and an incomplete future vector as the sample. Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes are also developed to obtain the target posterior distribution of parameters. The advantages of Bayesian approach over the maximum likelihood method are demonstrated via a set of real data.     

群体决策支持系统的模型库研究

通过对传统模型及模型库的分析,指出其在网络环境下具有难以实现共享的不足.从模型在网络上共享及其软件实现的角度,在分布式网络数据库环境下,利用分布式网络数据库技术,设计了模型库的结构和机理;提出了模型库的构造方法;对模型库的内部控制方式进行了设计;提出了模型库对群体决策的支持方式;客户端的决策成员对模型库的共享与访问方法.     

对工程中几个哲学观念的思考

工程是人们利用现有的生产要素改造客观世界的过程和成果的总称,是人类某种需求的物化。我国工程建设需要树立新理念,特别应当克服重技术因素、经济因素和重短期利益而轻视和忽视综合效益、社会效益和长远效益的问题。工程领导者和工程技术人员都应该努力提高自己的哲学思维水平,运用哲学思维指导工程建设。     

A Bayesian Adjustment for Covariate Misclassification with Correlated Binary Outcome Data

Estimated associations between an outcome variable and misclassified covariates tend to be biased when the methods of estimation that ignore the classification error are applied. Available methods to account for misclassification often require the use of a validation sample (i.e. a gold standard). In practice, however, such a gold standard may be unavailable or impractical. We propose a Bayesian approach to adjust for misclassification in a binary covariate in the random effect logistic model when a gold standard is not available. This Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach uses two imperfect measures of a dichotomous exposure under the assumptions of conditional independence and non-differential misclassification. A simulated numerical example and a real clinical example are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Our results suggest that the estimated log odds of inpatient care and the corresponding standard deviation are much larger in our proposed method compared with the models ignoring misclassification. Ignoring misclassification produces downwardly biased estimates and underestimate uncertainty.     

构建沈阳自主创新科技投融资体系的途径选择

建立创新型城市离不开多元化、多渠道、多层次的科技投融资体系。通过有效的政策安排,不断完善科技投融资体系,对加快沈阳的发展,加速科技创新进程和科技成果转化具有重要意义。本文提出了沈阳自主创新亟待投融资体系的完善,着重分析了沈阳自主创新科技投融资体系的现状和存在的问题,提出了促进沈阳自主创新科技投融资体系完善的途径。     

城市化进程中土地利用之误区及其出路

土地利用是否合乎城市化进程的客观规律与内在要求，将直接决定城市化成就与否。我国可供利用的土地资源相对缺乏。土地的法律属性为公有制所有制，土地所有权不得转让，但土地使用权可以合法转让。在我国城市化进程中，土地利用存在着城市化等同于城市规模和功能的大而全、城市化等同于农村城市化（城镇化）和农民市民化、征收农业用地是城市化所需土地的唯一来源、城市规模的扩大有利于经济的发展和社会利益最大化等认识误区。我们应在参考借鉴国外相应制度的基础上，采取在条件适合地区推进农地的规模利用；科学规划，严格监控，建立有中国特色的集约用地制度：完善土地的市场定价机制，丰富土地取得方式，实现土地资源的市场化配置等措施，科学利用土地，合理推进城市化进程。