Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

解读人与自然的和谐

人与自然和谐包含着丰富和深刻的内涵 ,从理论层面上看 ,它应是人与自然互相适应的辩证统一 ;从实践层面上讲 ,它应是人与自然双方均处于既被改造又应保护的关系之中。必须反对在这个问题上的各种片面的观点与看法     

新制度经济学的意识形态理论及其启示

意识形态理论是新制度经济学制度变迁理论的分析工具之一。新制度经济学认为,意识形态是减少提供其他制度安排的服务费用的最重要的制度安排。在中国由计划经济体制向市场经济体制转轨过程中,借鉴新制度经济学的意识形态理论,建构有中国特色的社会主义意识形态理论,发挥意识形态在制度变迁和经济增长中的作用,具有重大的现实意义。     

从盐业契约看民事诉讼模式的转变

在现代民事诉讼制度中，一直存在职权主义诉讼与当事人主义诉讼两种模式之争，而我国的民事诉讼制度可以说基本上属于职权主义模式。在四川井盐生产历史过程中，保留了丰富的盐业契约档案，这些契约规范着各类的盐业生产经营活动，调解着复杂的盐业诉讼纠纷盐业契约以其突出的自由性、合意性以及遵从习惯等特点，在过去有效地调节着复杂的经济关系，我们探析其中有价值的成分，对于思考我国的民事诉讼制度应更多地引入当事人主义模式一定会有所启示。     

Women's Changing Attitudes Toward Divorce, 1974–2002: Evidence for an Educational Crossover

This article examines trends in divorce attitudes of young adult women in the United States by educational attainment from 1974 to 2002. Women with 4‐year college degrees, who previously had the most permissive attitudes toward divorce, have become more restrictive in their attitudes toward divorce than high school graduates and women with some college education, whereas women with no high school diplomas have increasingly permissive attitudes toward divorce. We examine this educational crossover in divorce attitudes in the context of variables correlated with women's educational attainment, including family attitudes and religion, income and occupational prestige, and family structure. We conclude that the educational crossover in divorce attitudes is associated most strongly with work and family structure variables.     

“一卡在手，走遍校园”——邯郸职业技术学院校园一卡通建设方案

“校园一卡通”系统将多项管理职能融为一体,实现“一卡在手,走遍校园”总体目标,不但提高了管理效率,降低了成本,方便了教师和学生,而且计算机管理工作也得到了进一步的深入完善。文章详细介绍了邯郸职业技术学院一卡通系统的设计目标、功能,以及系统组织结构。     

乌鲁木齐县安宁渠镇社会经济变化调查报告

该文通过对乌鲁木齐县安宁渠镇的调查 ,揭示了城镇化进程中所发生的社会经济变化 ,以及这一变化所产生的后果 ;论述了加快安宁渠镇发展急需解决的问题 ,即社会意识整合问题、知识更新问题、基础设施建设问题、体制问题等。     

我国金融风险的制度因素分析

对金融风险进行有效的防范和控制,必须抓住风险产生的根本原因.目前我国存在的金融风险实质上是制度性风险,而产权制度是形成制度性风险的根源.在深化产权改革,建立起我国市场化金融制度的同时,也要积极借鉴国际先进经验,推行有利于金融风险防范的新的金融制度,并注意金融制度的适用性问题,以免引起新的金融风险.     

区域制度变迁和中部地区经济发展的战略适应

我国区域制度变迁对中部地区的发展产生了深远影响。文章分析了区域经济新格局下中部地区的区域竞争环境，依据演化理论提出了环境变迁后中部地区区域发展的战略适应观点以及战略适应的现实路径，认为中部地区的战略适应路径在于区域制度创新和经济集聚战略，并就区域制度创新和经济集聚战略实施中的具体问题进行了探讨。     

二十世纪八九十年代女性文学变革探析

二十世纪八九十年代女性文学在传统女性文学的基础上发生嬗变,在中国文坛上引起巨大的震撼。试图从女性生存的环境和女性性别意识诠释女性文学发生流变的真实状态。探讨女性文学在变革时期所走过的不寻常的路。剥离出对现在文学有启迪的、有价值的女性文学。