基于Logit模型的区域集镇系统需求分析及规模确定研究

集镇迁建并非简单的将集镇按照原规模从一个地方搬到另一个地方，集镇迁建规模的大小．应该根据迁入区的实际需求（需求规模）来确定，需求的大小主要取决于村民对集镇的选择行为，即越多的人选择到某个集镇进行活动，该集镇的需求规模越大，反之越小。影响集镇需求的因素很多，包括交通时间、交通费用、集镇服务种类、服务质量等，本文将其概括为广义费用和集镇效用（服务能力），建立反映村民选择行为的Logit模型分析集镇需求情况，并将其应用于区域集镇系统布局优化中，以我国西部某地为例进行实证分析，反映搬迁前后一定区域内各榘镇需求规模的变化，同时计算出新集镇的需求规模，为集镇迁建规模的确定及其布局优化提供科学的参考。     

劳动合同理论研究

本文分析劳动合同的可执行特征和在可执行要求下,劳动合同条款须具备可检验性,这要求明确期限和工资,同时劳动强度与劳动范围却是模糊的.进一步阐释劳动合同中劳动强度与劳动范围的模糊性的原因以及在劳动合同中劳动强度与劳动范围的模糊性情况下,相关制度安排怎样抑制雇佣双方机会主义行为,雇佣双方退出权的不对称是有效抑制雇佣双方机会主义行为的安排.     

关于现代企业储备人才的培养研究——黄商特训：让员工快速成长

现代企业的竞争是企业服务的竞争、企业内涵的竞争、企业文化的竞争，归根结底是企业人才的竞争。走规模经济、走文化经济是我国企业发展的方向。黄商人坚持以市场为导向，专注于商业连锁发展，为至今还处在瓶颈期的企业提供了较好的借鉴作用，其具有特色的员工培训模式给现代企业也提供了一定的参考作用。     

Estimation of firm-specific technological bias,technical change and total factor productivity growth: a dual approach

This paper deals with modeling firm-specific technical change (TC), and technological biases (inputs and scale) in estimating total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Several dual parametric econometric models are used for this purpose. We examine robustness of TFP growth and TC among competing models. These models include the traditional time trend (TT) model and the general index (GI) model. The TT and the GI models are generalized to accommodate firm-specific TC and technological bias (in inputs and output). Both nested and non-nested tests are used to select the appropriate models. Firm-level panel data from the Japanese chemical industry during 1968- 1987 is used as an application.     

Using power transformations when approximating quantiles

Estimators are obtained tor quantiles of survival distributions. This is accomplished by approximating Lritr distribution of the transtorrneri data, where the transformation used is that of Box and Cox (1964). The normal approximation as in Box and Cox and, in addition, the extreme value approximation are considered. More generally, to use the methods given, the approximating distribution must come from a location-scale family. For some commonly used survival random variables T the performance of the above approximations are evaluated in terms of the ratio of the true quantiles of T to the estimated one, in the long run. This performance is also evaluated for lower quantiles using simulated lognormai, Weibull and gamma data. Several examples are given to illustrate the methodology herein, including one with actual data.     

The sensitivity of income polarization

This study looks at polarization and its components’ sensitivity to assumptions about equivalence scales, income definition, ethical income distribution parameters, and the income accounting period. A representative sample of Danish individual incomes from 1984 to 2002 is utilised. Results show that polarization has increased over time, regardless of the applied measure, when the last part of the period is compared to the first part of the period; primary causes being increased inequality (alienation) and faster income growth among high incomes relative to those in the middle of the distribution. Increasing the accounting period confirms the reduction in inequality found for shorter periods, but polarization is virtually unchanged, because income group identification increases. Applying different equivalence scales does not change polarization ranking for different years, but identification ranks are affected. The welfare state considerably reduces income polarization and inequality, but at the expense of some more identification.      

关于农民专业合作经济组织发展问题

研究了农民专业合作经济组织发挥组织功能、中介功能、服务功能、教育功能和改革功能具有的重要意义以及在现实中存在的政府部门重视不够、规范化程度低和风险共担等问题;阐述了在农民专业合作发展中应遵循的原则,同时给出了推进其发展的对策是明确责任、完善政策和强化服务等措施。     

论我国法定继承制度的完善

我国《继承法》规定的法定继承制度,内容简单且不够全面。《继承法》应以我国《民法典》的制订为历史契机进行修订和补充,扩大法定继承人范围,增加法定继承顺序,强化配偶继承权的法律保护,完善代位继承制度等,以进一步完善我国的法定继承制度,并为《民法典》的制订打好基础。     

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.