Has the Lewis Turning Point Arrived in China?—Theoretical Analysis and International Experience

各国农业劳动力占总劳动力的比重随着各国人均GDP增长呈现先加速下降而后减 速下降的趋势, 分界点就是刘易斯转折点。跨国平行数据的回归结果表明, 刘易斯转 折点在人均GDP为3,000-4,000美元 (购买力平价2000年国际美元) 之间出现。中国的 人均GDP超越了这一水平, 但农业劳动力比重远高于该经济发展水平下的世界平均水 平, 这很可能意味着中国的农业劳动力转移仍有较大潜力。

关键词: 刘易斯转折点 劳动力转移 跨国平行数据

Using World Bank cross-country panel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewis turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the share of rural labor in the total labor force tends to decrease first at an accelerated rate and then, after passing the Lewis turning point, at a reduced rate. Regression analysis of cross- country panel data shows that the Lewis turning point is reached when GDP per capita reaches somewhere between US$3,000 and US$4,000 dollars (PPP, constant international US dollars for the year 2000). GDP per capita in China has exceeded this level, but the proportion of rural labor in the total labor force remains much higher than the average for countries at the same level of economic development. This may imply that there is still considerable potential for rural labor transfer in China.     

两组特殊标点符号的用法分析

为了防止或减少媒介因不当使用相关特殊标点符号而导致信息传播的质量下降，提高有关人员的写作或编辑质量，针对图书、期刊和报纸等出版物在使用标点符号“．”与“·”及“：”与“：”中出现的错误，利用典型例子，阐述了它们的常见用法，并对使用过程中易犯的一些错误进行了分析，提出了相关建议。     

我国劳动力供给优势减弱与劳动力转移的优化

近年来，对于我国劳动力供给优势减弱以及劳动力成本上升的问题，不少学者利用刘易斯模型分析了其原因，并提出各种促进、完善我国农村剩余劳动力转移机制的政策措施。文章仍从分析这一问题的经典模型——刘易斯模型入手，但重点借鉴了日本的成功经验，为促进我国农村剩余劳动力转移提出了一系列对策。     

Order statistics from the linear-exponential distribution,part I: increasing hazard rate case

For the linear-exponential distribution with increasing hazard rate, exact and explicit expressions for means, product moments and percentage points of order statistics are obtained. Some recurrence relations for both single and product moments of order statistics are also derived. These recurrence relations would enable one to obtain all the higher order moments of order statistics for all sample sizes from those of the lower order     

Contrasting the Gini and Zenga indices of economic inequality

The current financial turbulence in Europe inspires and perhaps requires researchers to rethink how to measure incomes, wealth, and other parameters of interest to policy-makers and others. The noticeable increase in disparities between less and more fortunate individuals suggests that measures based upon comparing the incomes of less fortunate with the mean of the entire population may not be adequate. The classical Gini and related indices of economic inequality, however, are based exactly on such comparisons. It is because of this reason that in this paper we explore and contrast the classical Gini index with a new Zenga index, the latter being based on comparisons of the means of less and more fortunate sub-populations, irrespectively of the threshold that might be used to delineate the two sub-populations. The empirical part of the paper is based on the 2001 wave of the European Community Household Panel data set provided by EuroStat. Even though sample sizes appear to be large, we supplement the estimated Gini and Zenga indices with measures of variability in the form of normal, t-bootstrap, and bootstrap bias-corrected and accelerated confidence intervals.     

Testing for a change in covariance operator

The paper considers a problem of equality of two covariance operators. Using functional principal component analysis, a method for testing equality of K largest eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenfunctions, together with its generalization to a corresponding change point problem is suggested. Asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are presented.     

教育:必要的乌托邦和可能存在的问题

教育需要乌托邦精神,教育的终极目标是实现人的全面发展;教育是社会变革的"阿基米德点",或大或小的内部变化都将会渗透到社会的各个子机构中;认清必要的乌托邦中教育可能存在的问题,才能保证教育朝着健康、有益、良性的方向发展。     

基于服务驱动假说的消费者自提包裹选择意愿研究

基于淘宝网买家样本,分析了上门投递服务缺陷、上门投递感知风险与消费者自提意愿的关系,试图在新的认知环境下重新检验服务驱动假说。研究表明,上门投递服务缺陷一方面对消费者自提意愿产生了直接的促进作用,另一方面也通过上门投递感知风险的中介效应施加了间接作用;自提感知价值既在上门投递服务缺陷与消费者自提意愿间发挥了调节作用,又对上门投递感知风险的中介作用产生了调节。根据研究结论,可推测当前阶段下服务驱动假说具有一定合理性,相关企业应当明确自提点服务定位,并且需要调整营销推广思路。     

Asymptotic behaviour of a test statistic for detection of change in mean of vectors

The paper gives an asymptotic distribution of a test statistic for detecting a change in a mean of random vectors with dependent components. The studied test statistic has a form of a maximum of a square Euclidean norms of vectors with components being standardized partial cumulative sums of deviations from means. The limit distribution was obtained using a result of Piterbarg [1994. High deviations for multidimensional stationary Gaussian processes with independent components. In: Zolotarev, V.M. (Ed.), Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, pp. 197–210].     

编辑选题策划中的营销策略

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