“人心”与“文心”的分裂——论王褒诗品与人品中的两面性

王褒为人的行为方式与其诗文作品之间始终存在着矛盾,从人心这个角度看,他是荷恩眄,忘羁旅,性格是软弱谨慎的,从文心即文学作品的角度来看,他又不断地抒写着羁旅之感与归乡之念,不断地在和不幸的命运作着抗争。这种分裂人格的存在是由于王褒在历史的大变革以后戴上了人格面具,从而造成了人心与文心分裂的结果。     

农村土地综合整治项目效益评价方法研究

农村土地综合整治是实现城乡统筹发展的重要平台,对农村经济发展、生态环境和社会发展有重要影响。本文首先建立了土地综合整治有关经济效益、社会效益和生态效益方面的各项评价指标,并利用灰色系统理论中的关联投影法构造了灰色关联度判断矩阵,通过计算各评价方案的灰色关联投影值,判断各决策方案与理想方案之间的接近程度,以此来比较所选项目区内各个项目效益的大小,并根据评价结果对实施不同整治工程内容的两类项目进一步进行比较分析,得出以居民点整理和新村建设为中心的综合整治效益较好,但对农村土地不能忽视农田整治的结论。     

基于PPR的天津市工业废水排放量预测

为了保证城市的可持续发展,科学准确地预测废水排放量是十分必要的。因为它是城市排水系统规划和管理的基础,也关系到城市的污水系统及污水处理厂的合理规划。文章基于天津市1990—2009年工业废水排放量的历史数据,采用投影寻踪回归法,对天津市2010—2015年工业废水排放量进行了预测研究。结果表明,在＂十二五＂期间,天津市的经济继续保持快速发展,但由于加强了＂减排＂工作的力度和对废水的治理,＂十二五＂期间的工业废水排放量整体趋向于平稳,相比＂十一五＂期间还有小幅降低。     

对魏晋士人同一性危机的探源与思考——兼评郭世轩先生的《魏晋艺术精神研究》

魏晋士人的同一性危机,既是一个时代问题,也是一个世代问题。研究魏晋士人的同一性危机,不仅要着眼于魏晋时期的政治、经济与文化,也要探源逐流,研究两汉时期的历史状况。魏晋士人的同一性危机在两汉时期就已经埋下了伏笔。两汉时期,尤其是儒学取得至尊地位以后,士人受儒家伦理道德观念的浸染,志行高洁,少有违礼纵情的。但由于两汉政治局势的混乱,儒学一度低迷,士人的思想极端混乱,这为魏晋士人的自我认同埋下了祸根。同时,由于魏晋的政局更加无序,尤其是统治者对名教的破坏,使得魏晋士人的同一性危机更加突出。     

基于实数编码加速遗传投影寻踪方法在物流供应商选择中的应用

针对第三方物流供应商评价指标数据的不确定性和高维性,为克服以往评价方法的不足,提出了综合评价的基于实数编码加速遗传投影寻踪方法。采用投影寻踪模型将高维数据投影到低维子空间上,并对数据结构进行分析;采用基于实数编码的加速遗传算法优化投影方向,克服了投影寻踪模型最佳投影方向难于寻找或容易陷入局部最优的问题;通过最佳投影方向来判断各评价指标对综合评价目标的影响程度和方向,得出投影指标值从大到小的排序。同时,对物流供应商做深入分析,将这一方法用于对低维数据（二级指标）进行评价排序,结果显示与综合评价基本一致,达到了对第三方物流供应商科学、准确的评价,可为企业正确选择物流供应商提供依据。     

沈阳市残疾人社会保障体系的制度设计与供需预测分析

针对在覆盖城乡居民的社会保障进程中,亟待构建符合残疾人需求、完善、适度的社会保障制度体系问题,在全国第一、二次残疾人抽样调查资料的基础上,结合沈阳市城乡残疾人社会保障调研数据,设计残疾人社会保障制度的框架、内容,并深入分析制度设计的合意性,同时对未来城乡残疾人社会保障进行供需预测分析,并提出完善特殊群体社会保障制度的政策建议。     

Variability explained by covariates in linear mixed‐effect models for longitudinal data

Variability explained by covariates or explained variance is a well‐known concept in assessing the importance of covariates for dependent outcomes. In this paper we study R² statistics of explained variance pertinent to longitudinal data under linear mixed‐effect models, where the R² statistics are computed at two different levels to measure, respectively, within‐ and between‐subject variabilities explained by the covariates. By deriving the limits of R² statistics, we find that the interpretation of explained variance for the existing R² statistics is clear only in the case where the covariance matrix of the outcome vector is compound symmetric. Two new R² statistics are proposed to address the effect of time‐dependent covariate means. In the general case where the outcome covariance matrix is not compound symmetric, we introduce the concept of compound symmetry projection and use it to define level‐one and level‐two R² statistics. Numerical results are provided to support the theoretical findings and demonstrate the performance of the R² statistics. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 352–368; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

中国宏观经济情境设计与路径预测

路径预测是通过构建联合置信区间来获得未来多期预测的可能范围,覆盖了中国宏观经济的可能运行路径。通过系统迭代和直接预测方法对我国宏观经济中的产出,通胀和利率进行蒙特卡洛模拟和路径预测,并在特定宏观经济情景下进行伪样本外条件路径预测。基于中国数据的蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示Scheffé方法构建的预测路径具有合理的路径覆盖范围,是判定预测不确定性的合理且有效方法,伪样本外条件路径预测显示合理的情境设计能够得出更为有效的预测路径。     

Estimation and inference for generalized semi-varying coefficient models

This paper is concerned with the estimation and inference in generalized semi-varying coefficient models. An orthogonal projection local quasi-likelihood estimation is investigated, which can easily be used to estimate the model parametric and nonparametric parts. Then an empirical likelihood logarithmic approach to construct the confidence regions/intervals of the nonparametric parts is developed. Under some mild conditions, the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are studied explicitly, respectively. Some simulation studies are carried out to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. Finally, the methodologies are illustrated by a real data set.     

Sharp bounds for the mean of the total time on test for distributions with increasing generalized failure rate

The results of this paper are the continuation of the research presented by Bieniek [Optimal bounds for the mean of the total time on test for distributions with decreasing generalized failure rate. Statistics. 2016;50:1206–1220]. We consider the remaining total time on test after a given failure in a life test experiment. We derive sharp upper bounds on the mean of the total time on test optimal in the class of distributions with increasing generalized failure rate with respect to generalized Pareto distributions. Specific results are obtained for distributions with increasing density and increasing failure rate. We also provide exemplary numerical values of the obtained bounds and we compare them with the corresponding bounds for distributions with decreasing generalized failure rate.