社会转型背景下农村生计方式变迁研究——以河北省D县为例

生计方式变迁属于社会整体性变迁的一个重要组成部分。论文以河北省D县为例,通过对D县农村生计方式的变迁进行实地研究,描述了生计方式变迁的内容,并深入分析生计方式变迁的动力机制。生计方式变迁导致了农民家庭收入的不稳定、人际关系的功利化、社会流动的不合理、"熟人社会"的陌生化等问题,积极寻求农民理性适应生计方式变迁的途径直接关系到新农村建设和稳定。     

胡尖山地区长 6、长 4+5 储层有利区预测

摘要：以胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏为例，综合应用地质资料、岩芯分析资料、测井资料以及试油资料，开展了长 6和长 4+5 油藏小层划分和对比、单井相分析，建立测井相识别模式，编制小层沉积相平面展布图，进而分析沉积相演化规律；探讨储层砂体展布以及物性分布规律，从而深入认识研究区的储层特征。在此基础上对储层进行流动单元的划分，然后结合试油资料对胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏的储层进行有利区域的预测，为油田待开发区域的合理建产开发提供了理论指导     

农村校车安全事故背后的教育公平问题

近年来农村校车事故频发,使得校车安全问题浮出了水面。其实,校车不够规范只是校车事故频发的表层原因,而更深层次的原因却在于城乡教育资源配置的不公平。所以要解决校车安全问题,不仅在于规范校车、提高校车的质量,还在于合理配置教育资源,实现城乡教育公平。     

Generating synthetic data to produce public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data with application to the National Health Interview Survey

Small area statistics obtained from sample survey data provide a critical source of information used to study health, economic, and sociological trends. However, most large-scale sample surveys are not designed for the purpose of producing small area statistics. Moreover, data disseminators are prevented from releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas for disclosure reasons; thus, limiting the utility of the data they collect. This research evaluates a synthetic data method, intended for data disseminators, for releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data. The method replaces all observed survey values with synthetic (or imputed) values generated from a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly accounts for complex sample design features, including stratification, clustering, and sampling weights. The method is applied to restricted microdata from the National Health Interview Survey and synthetic data are generated for both sampled and non-sampled small areas. The analytic validity of the resulting small area inferences is assessed by direct comparison with the actual data, a simulation study, and a cross-validation study.     

晚清私寓的戏曲传承活动

晚清私寓是戏曲史上的一种独特现象,它既是一种培养艺人、传承戏曲的组织,同时又具有浓厚的娱乐性,形同歌楼酒馆。私寓弟子演戏之外,亦凭借自身姿色,兼营侑酒等娱乐活动,同时具有倡、优两种身份。因而,与普通的科班、戏班等传承组织相比,私寓在弟子的来源与选择、培养方式、师徒关系等方面,均有鲜明的特色,并对后世戏曲的面貌产生了深刻的影响。     

试论民族地区建立“环境侵权责任社会分担机制”的必要性

环境侵权责任社会分担是一种将因环境侵权行为所造成的损失转移到社会,由侵权行为人以外的主体完全或部分分担损失金额的侵权赔偿责任机制。社会连带理论为其提供了正当性基础。从伦理学、经济学、政治学和社会学角度均能证明民族地区建立环境侵权责任社会分担机制的必要性。     

四川民族地区旅游资源开发与生态安全保障机制研究

旅游资源开发一直被认为是促进四川、云南、贵州等西部民族地区地方脱贫致富的重要路径,然而过度的资源开发必将直接危及当地生态安全。四川地处长江上游,其民族地区的生态安全状况关系着长江流域以及整个国家的安全。本文从人与自然、人与社会关系的视角,探寻四川民族地区旅游资源开发过程中自然生态环境、民族文化生态环境的生态安全保障机制,以期切实有效地维护社会和谐稳定发展。     

清末潮汕地区瘟疫流行原因与社会救助研究

清末潮汕地区瘟疫流行给潮汕地区的经济和社会造成了巨大影响,而此次瘟疫流行是气候、地理位置等因素共同作用的结果。当地政府和社会各界采取了一系列措施进行救助和防治,极大地降低了死亡率,同时提高了民众的防疫意识。     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

浅谈高职院校的创先争优活动

高职院校作为高技能人才培养的重要阵地，其中心工作就是要提高人才培养的质量，为社会培养大量的高级技能型人才，因此，高职院校应紧紧围绕这一中心工作，不断深化创先争优活动。