文化塑校,以文化人：地方本科高校文化建设刍议

地方本科高校的文化建设从目标而言就是“文化塑校”,就是要以校园特色文化塑造学校的品牌形象,全面提升办学层次。地方本科高校文化建设的核心是“以文化人”,就是要以优秀的校园文化潜移默化地影响人的思想意识与言行举止,从而实现“以德育人、以文化人”的大学功能。按照“文化塑校”的战略,凝炼大学的育人文化,实现校园文化的“以文化人”功能,需要传承校史的根的文化、弘扬校训的励志文化、彰显校友的创业文化和优化校园的环境文化。     

Social capital in Croatia: measurement and regional distribution

By using partial least squares path modeling, this paper develops a complex index of social capital, selects Croatia as the case for testing and validating the index, and investigates the regional distribution of social capital. The social capital index is defined as a complex hierarchical structured construct of third-order with social trust, participation, and civism as its core dimensions. The main results indicate that civism is the most important cause of social capital followed by active participation and social trust. As far as the regional distribution of social capital is concerned, there are statistically significant differences across the Croatian regions. Although the lowest or below the national average level of social capital and its dimensions can be mostly found in the least developed regions (with the exception of the capital), the highest level of social capital and its particular dimensions is not achieved in the most developed regions.     

Drug resistance in an age-of-infection model

ABSTRACT

In the case of a disease spreading over a time-scale comparable to the average lifetime in a host population, when the infectiousness of individuals depends on the tine since the onset of infection and when infections involve both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains of a pathogen, resistance may develop during the treatment of drug-sensitive strains. If increasing the treatment rate reduces the reproduction number of the drug-sensitive strain to a value below the reproduction number of the drug-resistant strain, then the disease may persist at a boundary equilibrium where only drug-resistant infection is present.     

An optional randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute using Poisson distribution

The crux of this article is to estimate the mean of the number of persons possessing a rare sensitive attribute based on the Mangat (1991 Mangat, N.S. (1991). An optional randomized response sampling technique using non–stigmatized attribute. Statistica. 51(4):595–602. [Google Scholar]) randomization device by utilizing the Poisson distribution in simple random sampling and stratified sampling. Properties of the proposed randomized response (RR) model have been studied along with recommendations. It is also shown that the proposed model is more efficient than that of Land et al. (2011 Land, M., Singh, S., Sedory, S.A. (2011). Estimation of a rare attribute using Poisson distribution. Statistics. 46(3):351–360.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in simple random sampling and that of Lee et al. (2013 Lee, G.S., Uhm, D., Kim, J.M. (2013). Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in stratified sampling using Poisson distribution. Statistics. 47(3):575–589.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in stratified random sampling when the proportion of persons possessing a rare unrelated attribute is known. Numerical illustrations are also given in support of the present study.     

A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

论后现代技术的品性和实践

以信息、语言、记忆工业和时间物体为代表的后现代技术,批判现代技术的机械化、商品化、功利化、权力化人类中心主义以及物化和异化带来的各类难以预测的事故和灾难。主张在非祛魅性、多元性、生态性和非决定论的后现代科学基础上,根除"技术官僚主义",推动后现代技术往更加人道、民主、自由、智慧和艺术的方向发展,将技术进一步人性化和真善美一体化,使其真正为新人民和全人类的文明服务。     

New calibration estimator based on two auxiliary variables in stratified sampling

In recent years, calibration estimation has become an important field of research in survey sampling. This paper proposes a new calibration estimator for the population mean in the presence of two auxiliary variables in stratified sampling. The theory of new calibration estimator is given and optimum calibration weights are derived. A simulation study is carried out to performance of the proposed calibration estimator over other existing calibration estimators. The results reveal that the proposed calibration estimators are more efficient than other existing calibration estimators in stratified sampling.     

A closer look at de-aliasing effects using an efficient foldover technique

Foldover techniques are used to reduce the confounding when some important effects (usually lower order effects) cannot be estimated independently. This article develops an efficient foldover mechanism for symmetric or asymmetric designs, whether regular or nonregular. In this paper, we take the uniformity criteria (UC) as the optimality measures to construct the optimal combined designs (initial design plus its corresponding foldover design) which have better capability of estimating lower order effects. The relationship between any initial design and its combined design is studied. A comparison study between the combined designs via different UC is provided. Equivalence between any combined design and its complementary combined design is investigated, which is a very useful constraint that reduce the search space. Using our results as benchmarks, we can implement a powerful algorithm for constructing optimal combined designs. Our work covers as well as gives results better than recent works of about 20 articles in the last few years as special cases. So this article is a good reference for constructing effective designs.     

A Blueprint for Full Collective Flood Risk Estimation: Demonstration for European River Flooding

Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio‐temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis. To overcome this limit, we move from the analysis of extreme events to the modeling of continuous stream flow records preserving spatio‐temporal correlation structures of the entire process, and making a more efficient use of the information provided by continuous flow records. The approach is based on the dynamic copula framework, which allows for splitting the modeling of spatio‐temporal properties by coupling suitable time series models accounting for temporal dynamics, and multivariate distributions describing spatial dependence. The model is applied to 490 stream flow sequences recorded across 10 of the largest river basins in central and eastern Europe (Danube, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Waser, Meuse, Rhone, Seine, Loire, and Garonne). Using available proxy data to quantify local flood exposure and vulnerability, we show that the temporal dependence exerts a key role in reproducing interannual persistence, and thus magnitude and frequency of annual proxy flood losses aggregated at a basin‐wide scale, while copulas allow the preservation of the spatial dependence of losses at weekly and annual time scales.     

A Comparative Pharmacokinetic Estimate of Mercury in U.S. Infants Following Yearly Exposures to Inactivated Influenza Vaccines Containing Thimerosal

The use of thimerosal preservative in childhood vaccines has been largely eliminated over the past decade in the United States because vaccines have been reformulated in single‐dose vials that do not require preservative. An exception is the inactivated influenza vaccines, which are formulated in both multidose vials requiring preservative and preservative‐free single‐dose vials. As part of an ongoing evaluation by USFDA of the safety of biologics throughout their lifecycle, the infant body burden of mercury following scheduled exposures to thimerosal preservative in inactivated influenza vaccines in the United States was estimated and compared to the infant body burden of mercury following daily exposures to dietary methylmercury at the reference dose established by the USEPA. Body burdens were estimated using kinetic parameters derived from experiments conducted in infant monkeys that were exposed episodically to thimerosal or MeHg at identical doses. We found that the body burden of mercury (AUC) in infants (including low birth weight) over the first 4.5 years of life following yearly exposures to thimerosal was two orders of magnitude lower than that estimated for exposures to the lowest regulatory threshold for MeHg over the same time period. In addition, peak body burdens of mercury following episodic exposures to thimerosal in this worst‐case analysis did not exceed the corresponding safe body burden of mercury from methylmercury at any time, even for low‐birth‐weight infants. Our pharmacokinetic analysis supports the acknowledged safety of thimerosal when used as a preservative at current levels in certain multidose infant vaccines in the United States.