中国农村民间借贷市场融资约束环境下利率定价模型分析——以广东农村实地调查数据为例

通过对广东农户民间借贷行为实地调查的问卷进行数据分析,了解农村民间借贷中的资金供求关系,发现存在的融资约束问题,进而对融资约束环境下民间借贷资金利率定价过程进行实证分析;着重考察农村民间借贷利率受公共信息和私人信息影响的程度,从借款人和贷款人的角度分别建立定价模型进行经验分析。结果显示,定价模型在F检验1%水平上显著,其他模型具有R2的统计显著性;反映借款用途的变量在10%水平上显著,其他变量均在5%水平上显著。这说明该市场利率能够反映公共信息的影响,借款人和贷款人的利率定价也反映了各自私人信息中相关风险和财务能力因素的影响,得到的经验结论主要是:第一,农村民间借贷市场是自主交易的金融市场;第二,其利率定价过程基本市场化。     

我国农村信贷市场重建的合作制基础

随着新农村建设的深入开展,农村金融发展尤其是农村金融市场建设成为人们关注的焦点。我国农村有普遍的存款服务和汇兑服务,但缺乏有效率和规模的信贷供给。如何重建农村信贷市场成为制约农村金融市场建设的关键因素。通过对农户信贷需求的满足问题的探讨,可以发现,在目前城乡二元经济结构下,小农经济与市场化的矛盾成为制约农户借贷供求的根源。突破这一制约的有效途径是发展合作经济和建立"农民所有"的合作金融。     

An oracle-based algorithm for robust planning of production routing problems in closed-loop supply chains of beverage glass bottles

The demand for glass bottles is exhibiting an upward trend over time. The manufacturing of glass bottles is costlier in terms of time and resources and is associated with a higher level of heat generation and environmental pollution compared to recycling processes. In response to the aforementioned challenges, companies that use glass bottles need to implement strategies to manage their reverse supply chains in conjunction with their traditional supply chains, as the economic and environmental benefits of returned products are unquestionable. Closed-loop supply chains (CLSCs) integrate forward and reverse flows of products and information. This integration helps companies to have a broader view of the whole chain. Despite these advantages, managing CLSCs can be challenging as they are exposed to many uncertainties regarding supply and demand processes, travel times, and quantity/quality of returned products.In this study, we consider the production planning, inventory management, and vehicle routing decisions of a CLSC of beverage glass bottles. We propose an MILP model and rely on a multi-stage adjustable robust optimization (ARO) formulation to deal with the randomness in both the demand for filled bottles and the requests for pickups of empty bottles. We develop an exact oracle-based algorithm to solve the ARO problem and propose a heuristic search algorithm to reduce the solution time. Our numerical experiments not only show the incompetency of the customary method, namely the affine decision rule approach, but also illustrate how our algorithms can solve the small-size problems and significantly improve the quality of the obtained solution for large problems. Furthermore, our numerical results show that robust plans tend to be sparse, meaning the routes are chosen so that empty bottles are transported to production sites in such a way that fewer new bottles need to be ordered. Thus, robust planning makes the CLSCs more environmentally friendly.     

‘Family money’ and ‘business money’: bankrupt entrepreneurs in a ‘question situation’

This paper addresses the question of bankruptcy and honesty in local contexts, and especially the problem of the bankrupt small businessman in conveying ‘honesty’ to the local community. Studying bankrupt entrepreneurs, the analysis explores a tacit dialogue between the failed businessmen and the small town communities where they live and work. The bankrupts respond to their seemingly mistrustful surroundings by demonstrating their respect for the dividing line between two social categories of money: ‘company money’ and ‘family money’. This discursive resource expresses business ethics and respectability, both essential for the bankrupt entrepreneur to start another business in the local community. The empirical material in the study consists of interviews with 22 businessmen who had created small businesses and experienced at least one bankruptcy, half of them in small towns. The entrepreneurs were found through court records and word of mouth. Interviews were conducted by the author and by graduate students from the Department of Sociology in Lund. All interviews were tape-recorded and transcribed verbatim.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

论图书馆的信息推送服务

信息推送服务是一种个性化的主动信息服务，图书馆在服务过程中必须贯彻以人为本、主动服务、一站式服务、个性化服务理念；网络环境下，基于RSS的信息推送模式比较好的解决信息推送的技术手段，图书馆根据学校的特性选择信息，建立用户需求库、信息资源库，定制用户界面并协同数据库完成信息推送。因此，以用户为中心的信息推送技术必将成为未来信息获取技术的一个重要发展方向。     

土地流转、资本兼并与扩大内需

立足于我国“三农”问题的根源性问题——土地问题，关注党的十七届三中全会提出的土地经营权流转问题，分析土地经营权流转的意义，主要在于土地、资本、劳动这三个基本生产要素的激活，盘活土地资源，引入非农资本，释放劳动力资源。同时，在土地流转过程中要警惕资本兼并问题；要循序渐进，谨慎推进土地流转。     

论中国扩大消费需求的供给侧支撑

以消费供给来促进消费需求的上扬有着深厚的理论与实践基础,仅从需求侧探求消费需求的增长无法对现实问题给出全面解释,秉承需求侧与供给侧对接的理念才能共同拉动经济进步,从根本上推动消费需求的上涨。中国目前的消费供给面临着有效供给的不足,主要体现在高质量供给不足、高端消费供给不足、个性化消费供给不足三个方面。要提振中国消费需求,需要重视供给侧的重要作用,从提升产品质量、提高消费层次、增加个性化供给等方面进行努力。     

基于城市特征分析模型的智慧城市建设需求分析——以新乡市为例

如何在智慧城市建设过程中确定建设需求一直是智慧城市建设的重点与难点,本文通过构建城市特征分析模型,提出从城市特征出发进行比较分析确定智慧城市建设需求的方法。在完成城市特征分析模型的构建后,本文运用这一模型对新乡市智慧城市建设需求进行了分析并给出了相应的解决方案,展现了这一模型的使用方法。     

河北省生源地助学贷款需求、供给与还款分析——以河北农业大学为例

：生源地助学贷款具有承贷主体多元化、放款形式多样化、贷款管理属地化等优势，作为国家助学贷款的有益补充具有广阔的发展前景。根据对河北农业大学生源地助学贷款在校生和毕业生的问卷调查和数据分析，在需求和供给方面存在着供给量不足、供给形式单一等问题；在还款方面，存在着还款期限短、违约率较高等问题。针对上述问题，应通过加大政策扶持力度、建立风险基金和信用体系等措施来解决，以促进河北省生源地助学贷款的健康发展。