试论元初“重农不抑商”政策思想及其对社会经济的积极影响

“重农不抑商”是元初特有的经济政策思想，与当时的时代和社会结构直接相关，对社会经济影响深远     

Running Away from Out‐of‐Home Care: A Multilevel Analysis

Previous research suggests that the likelihood of runaway episodes among children in out‐of‐home care varies across different communities/regions. However, the potential regional variation has rarely been reflected in attempts to understand runaway episodes in out‐of‐home care systems. The current study examines the effects of child characteristics, family characteristics and child welfare system‐related characteristics on the likelihood of runaway episodes among children in out‐of‐home care, while accounting for county‐level variations in the risk of runaway behaviours. The authors employed multilevel analyses using data on children aged 12–17 from the 2009 AFCARS database. Results demonstrate that the likelihood of runaway episodes varied across counties. Accounting for county variation, children's ages, gender, diagnosed clinical conditions, family structures, number of removals, number of placements, removal manner, and case plan goals significantly predicted runaway status. Implications are discussed.     

Bayesian estimation with integrated nested Laplace approximation for binary logit mixed models

In multilevel models for binary responses, estimation is computationally challenging due to the need to evaluate intractable integrals. In this paper, we investigate the performance of integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a fast deterministic method for Bayesian inference. In particular, we conduct an extensive simulation study to compare the results obtained with INLA to the results obtained with a traditional stochastic method for Bayesian inference (MCMC Gibbs sampling), and with maximum likelihood through adaptive quadrature. Particular attention is devoted to the case of small number of clusters. The specification of the prior distribution for the cluster variance plays a crucial role and it turns out to be more relevant than the choice of the estimation method. The simulations show that INLA has an excellent performance as it achieves good accuracy (similar to MCMC) with reduced computational times (similar to adaptive quadrature).     

论运用WTO规则解决美欧对华纺织品贸易摩擦

美欧联手对华纺织品设立贸易限制的依据是《中国加入工作组报告书》的第242条款,而以此设限缺乏法律根据。必须依法应对美国的“特保”限制,美欧设限损害了中国纺织业的发展和W TO的信誉度。为解决与美欧的贸易摩擦,中国主动提高纺织品出口关税税率,政府实施“主动配额”的斡旋方式,对纺织品实施临时出口许可管理。中国纺织品服装企业必须正确应对国际竞争中的贸易壁垒。     

论虚假广告的法律规制

虚假广告是损害消费者与合法商家利益的一种违法行为,表现形式多种多样,广告内容夸大、失真;广告语言模糊,令人误解;广告内容不正当,有着极大的危害性。但在我国现行的法律法规中,并没有对虚假广告行为明确的定义。要从立法上明确虚假广告的概念和标准,完善以《广告法》为中心的虚假广告立法规制,尽快出台《网络广告法》,对网络虚假广告进行规制,使虚假广告在市场上没有立足之地。     

Relationship Preferences Among Gay and Lesbian Online Daters: Individual and Contextual Influences

There is currently little knowledge about what gay men and lesbians seek in a romantic relationship. This study extends the literature on gay men and lesbians' partnership preferences by engaging in the first large‐scale empirical study of the long‐term dating intentions and monogamy beliefs of gay and lesbian online daters across 53 regions in 8 European countries (N = 24,598). Looking at profile and preference information, the authors examined both individual and contextual determinants in a series of multilevel logistic regression analyses. They show that lesbians give more importance to monogamy but show less interest in starting a long‐term relationship. The data also reveal the importance of life course aspects such as relationship history and presence of children. Finally, the authors empirically demonstrate that social tolerance and legal recognition of same‐sex unions are associated with higher long‐term dating intentions and stronger monogamy beliefs.     

斯塔茨多水平的理论与方法

多水平的理论与方法是斯塔茨心理学整合观的具体体现,它将传统心理学的各个相对独立的研究领域看作是相互联系、相互影响的不同研究水平。这些水平从简单到复杂依次包括生物学水平、基本的动物学习水平、人类学习水平、社会交互作用水平、儿童发展水平、人格水平、心理测量水平、变态心理学水平、行为治疗水平。多水平的理论与方法为心理学的整合提供了新的视角与思路。     

Bayesian hierarchical duration model for repeated events: an application to behavioral observations

This article presents a continuous-time Bayesian model for analyzing durations of behavior displays in social interactions. Duration data of social interactions are often complex because of repeated behaviors (events) at individual or group (e.g. dyad) level, multiple behaviors (multistates), and several choices of exit from a current event (competing risks). A multilevel, multistate model is proposed to adequately characterize the behavioral processes. The model incorporates dyad-specific and transition-specific random effects to account for heterogeneity among dyads and interdependence among competing risks. The proposed method is applied to child–parent observational data derived from the School Transitions Project to assess the relation of emotional expression in child–parent interaction to risk for early and persisting child conduct problems.     

Team resilience: A scoping review of conceptual and empirical work

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this scoping review was to examine the literature on team resilience to gain insight into current thinking regarding its definition and conceptualisation, and to identify how researchers have operationalised and measured this concept. We conducted a systematic scoping review using the 5-phase approach proposed by Arksey and O’Malley. A total of seven databases were searched, followed by a citation search of eligible papers via Google Scholar. Of the 275 articles identified via the search process, 27 papers were deemed eligible for review. Several key findings regarding the literature on team resilience were observed: (i) definitions varied in terms of content (e.g. input or process), breadth (e.g. unidimensional versus multidimensional), and quality (e.g. essential and necessary attributes of key components); (ii) there was a predominance of single-level conceptualisations of team resilience; and (iii) there has been a reliance on cross-sectional research designs in empirical studies, which is incongruent with the dynamic nature of this concept. Key recommendations from this scoping review focus on definitional, theoretical, and methodological issues.     

Interethnic Marriage: Bringing in the Context through Multilevel Modelling

This article deals with the underlying causes of interethnic marriages of Turks and Moroccans living in Belgium. Predictions derived from assimilation theory (micro-perspective) and from the macro-structural perspective are combined in a single empirical model through multilevel modelling. It is found that both individual and higher-level determinants independently influence the propensity for being interethnically married. Higher odds are generally found for the second generation and at higher levels of age at marriage and educational attainment. Interethnic marriage is further promoted by a small size of the ethnic group, by low ethnic heterogeneity and by low correlation between the ethnic and the socio-economic dimension. Interethnic marriages are generally more prevalent in districts where the common language is French and where the majority of immigrants originate from urban regions in the country of origin.