城投公司债券信用利差影响因素与对策研究

为防范政府债务风险,减少城投债信用违约事件的发生,采用多元线性回归模型,选取2014～2016年新发城投债中7年期公司债为样本,将政府财政及债券等个体因素相关指标作为自变量,以宏观因素指标作为控制变量,分析中国不同行政级别城投债信用利差的影响因素。研究认为,债券个体因素对县、市和省级城投债信用利差均有显著影响,宏观因素的影响随城投公司所属行政级别升高而升高;地方政府财政因素对各行政级别的影响方向相同,由于城投公司资质存在差异,政府财政因素对低行政级别信用利差的影响显著;不同行政级别下,各类因素对信用利差的影响略有不同,城投公司债券发行信用利差与评级情况和发行规模都呈负向关系,系数绝对值随行政级别的升高而降低,企业自身财务因素影响并不显著。地方政府应大力发展经济使城投公司融资成本降低,投资者在投资前利用多种指标估算债券发行信用利差,城投公司也要注意合理设计发债规模,使自身融资成本达到最低,监管机构加强对低行政级别城投公司债券发行的监管和宏观经济方面的政策引导,以此促进解决城投债问题和推动城投债公司合理发行债券。     

英语口语教学中的多元化评价

教学与评价是现代教育中的两个重要方面.随着语言评价研究的发展,对语言能力的评价逐渐从单一维度的测试转向各种评价工具和评价方式的多元化评价.本文在总结多元化评价的基本理念的基础上,分析了多元化评价在口语能力评价中的作用,结合口语课堂教学,提出多元化评价在口语教学中的具体实施方法.     

基于高维分步投影的多重分区聚类算法

数据分布密度划分的聚类算法是数据挖掘聚类算法的主要方法之一。针对传统密度划分聚类算法存在运算复杂、运行效率不高等缺陷，设计高维分步投影的多重分区聚类算法；以高维分布投影密度为依据，对数据集进行多重分区，产生数据集的子簇空间，并进行子簇合并，形成理想的聚类结果；依据该算法进行实验，结果证明该算法具有运算简单和运行效率高等优良性。     

全球化背景下的中国现代性建构

全球化并不预示着一个全球大同时代的来临，反而在很大程度上表现了文化之间的差异性甚至对抗性。在这样的时代背景下，对于各民族文化尤其是对非西方社会来说，如何理解现代性与追求自身的现代化，成为一个紧迫的任务。在中国现代性的建构过程中，既要求加深对现代性的理解，也要求更好地把握自己的文化传统。     

岩体变形参数的应力状态效应研究

岩体力学参数存在随应力状态不同而变化的特性，称为应力状态效应。岩体力学特性的实测值具有空间场分布特征，分析表明地应力（或围压）的有规律变化是造成岩体力学参数空间变化的主要原因。考虑到实测地应力多具有较大的离散型，尝试利用反演方法获取地应力场信息，通过多元回归分析得到实测岩体变形参数与地应力的经验关系，以研究岩体变形参数的应力状态效应。通过一工程实例研究：得到地下厂房区域的岩体变形模量为16 GPa左右，与反演分析结果也比较符合；通过应力状态效应研究得到的岩体变形参数物理场，是一个渐变的物理场模型，是更为符     

Using multiple imputation to estimate cumulative distribution functions in longitudinal data analysis with data missing at random

In longitudinal clinical studies, after randomization at baseline, subjects are followed for a period of time for development of symptoms. The interested inference could be the mean change from baseline to a particular visit in some lab values, the proportion of responders to some threshold category at a particular visit post baseline, or the time to some important event. However, in some applications, the interest may be in estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) at a fixed time point post baseline. When the data are fully observed, the CDF can be estimated by the empirical CDF. When patients discontinue prematurely during the course of the study, the empirical CDF cannot be directly used. In this paper, we use multiple imputation as a way to estimate the CDF in longitudinal studies when data are missing at random. The validity of the method is assessed on the basis of the bias and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance. The results suggest that multiple imputation yields less bias and less variability than the often used last observation carried forward method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Who by Accident? The Social Morphology of Car Accidents

Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers’ social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road‐accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death.     

马达海洋区块分段压制多次波方法

马达海洋工区海底深度变化很大，多次波异常发育，多次波衰减一直是该区地震资料处理难题之一。首先分 析与自由表面相关多次波衰减方法（SRME）、预测反褶积、抛物线Radon 变换的方法原理，针对各方法的不同特点制 定方案：采用SRME 方法衰减与自由表面相关的多次波，预测反褶积方法压制层间多次波，抛物线Radon 变换法衰减 剩余的多次波。实际资料处理表明：这种分步分段压制多次波的方法能够很好地衰减海底深度变化范围大、海底构造 复杂的海洋地震资料的多次波，很好地改善海洋地震资料的成像效果。实际资料处理表明，这种分段压制多次波方法 能够广泛应用于海底深度变化大，海底地质构造复杂的海洋地震资料多次波衰减处理。     

Some efficient random imputation methods

Imputation methods that assign a selection of respondents’ values for missing i tern nonresponses give rise to an addd,tional source of sampling variation, which we term imputation varLance , We examine the effect of imputation variance on the precision of the mean, and propose four procedures for sampling the rEespondents that reduce this additional variance. Two of the procedures employ improved sample designs through selection of respc,ndents by sampling without replacement and by stratified sampl;lng. The other two increase the sample base by the use of multiple imputations.     

The Relationship Between Child Sexual Abuse and Alexithymic Symptoms in a Population of Recovering Adult Substance Abusers

ABSTRACT

Recovering substance abusers with a history of childhood sexual abuse (n = 69) or no history of childhood sexual abuse (n = 68) completed the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS) and a background survey assessing demographic data and (In the case of sexually abused respondents) parameters of the childhood abuse experienced. The sexually abused group scored significantly higher than the non-abused group on the TAS. Within the abused group, measured alexithymic symptomatology was found to be related positively to the duration of the abuse. Alexithymia was significantly higher when the sexual abuse first occurred after the victim had reached the age of 12, when a perpetrator of the sexual abuse was a father or stepfather, and when the abuse involved oral, vaginal, and/or anal penetration. Results were interpreted as indicating that the development of alexithymic symptoms may represent another defense victims may employ to insulate themselves from painful affect, along with dissociative symptoms and substance abuse, which have been shown previously to characterize adult survivors of child sexual abuse.