A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

城市景观河流生态修复的产出研究及有效性可靠性检验——基于上海城市内河水质改善价值评估的实证分析

意愿价值评估法(CVM)为具有显著外部性的生态环境服务的价值评估提供可能,但只有经过有效性和可靠性检验的CVM成果才能应用于环境公共政策与治理。本文以CVM评价上海市城市景观内河——漕河泾港的生态恢复的产出,在国内经常采用的线形对数模型基础上,加入二值响应的Logit概率模型对受访者社会经济变量进行回归分析,验证本次CVM应用的理论有效性。回归中首次引入反映我国特殊社会结构的户籍变量、收入差距变量两者的交互项,并纳入间接反映环境问题历史成因的居民沿河居住期变量,以验证调查结果与一般经济理论的相容性和与我国特殊社会构成、经济态势以及环境历史成因的吻合性。以预调查和正式调查为试验—复试样本验证了研究结果的可靠性。结果表明:平均支付意愿是160元/(a.户),改善漕河泾水环境的年经济效益至少在6.1×106元。     

电子商务立法的国际比较及对我国的启示

电子商务的迅速发展实质性地改变了传统市场交易的形式。而作为法律调整和规范的主要对象之一，交易形式的变化要求有新的法律规定与之相适应。在国际上，关于电子商务的立法活动已经形成了一种浪潮。而我国的电子商务立法工作却一直进展缓慢。其中有认识上的问题，更主要的是立法经验的不足。借鉴有关国家电子商务立法的先进经验，我国应当尽快建立和完善电子商务法制，这其中包括应当建立关于电子签名、电子商务认证、电子合同、电子支付等方面的法律规则与制度。     

当前财务公司存在的问题及对策

阐述了我国财务公司的性质和特点；指出并分析了当前我国财务公司存在的业务定位不准，融资渠道狭窄，缺乏人才资源和行政干预过多等主要问题；提出了明确财务公司的定位，拓展金融服务功能，拓宽融资渠道，开发人才资源，制定长远发展战略，提高竞争力和抗风险能力等解决问题的对策。     

Dementia Problem Behavior and the Production of Informal Caregiving Services

Informal caregivers of individuals with Alzheimer's disease spend a considerable amount of time providing care. In this paper, we use Grossman's health production and Becker's time allocation models to develop a model of informal care provision to elderly dementia patients. In our model, time inputs produce caregiving services, which provides utility to the caregiver, but reduces leisure. We assume that time is less productive of services on the margin as the disease progresses. In this framework, an increase in patients' disease severity does not necessarily increase informal caregiver time input. The cost of formal care establishes a reservation price for informal caregiving. When the costs of informal caregiving rise above this reservation level, the patient is institutionalized. We test empirically the effect of deterioration in the patients' condition, proxied by both disease severity and dementia problem behavior, on informal caregiving time. We find that dementia-related problem behaviors and functional limitations significantly increase inputs of informal caregiving time. Patients' problem behavior exerts a modifying effect on functional limitations, and patients' comorbidities have no effect on informal caregiving time.     

网络环境下图书馆信息服务创新初探

信息资源网络化给图书馆的生存和发展带来了巨大的冲击,图书馆惟有创新才有出路。本文提出转变观念是信息服务创新的前提;加强网络信息资源的开发利用是信息服务创新的基础;技术创新是信息服务创新的手段;高素质的图书馆员是信息服务创新的关键。     

产业组织的垂直解体与生产者服务业的发展

生产者服务业逐渐从制造业领域分离是当代世界经济发展的重要趋势，是国际分工不断深化的必然结果。在分析了国际分工的演进脉络基础上，本文论述了产业组织的垂直解体对生产者服务业发展的影响，最后提出了加快我国生产者服务业发展的对策。     

政府绩效评估与企业绩效评估比较及借鉴意义

政府部门与企业同属社会公共组织,两者的绩效评估具有可比性。政府绩效评估和企业绩效评估可以相互借鉴:政府绩效评估可以借鉴企业绩效评估的评估技术、价值导向、评估方法;政府绩效评估可以引导企业绩效评估关注企业的社会责任。     

全力支持河套大学人才培养水平评估 构建巴彦淖尔完善的国民教育体系

10月份,教育部将组织专家组对河套大学进行人才培养工作水平评估,对河套大学而言,这既是机遇也是挑战。经过21年的发展,河套大学取得了可喜的成绩。通过这次评估,河套大学要理清思路、深化改革,认真整改,迈向新高。教育行政部门大力支持对河套大学人才培养水平评估,支持河套大学的发展。     

Effects of Medicaid managed care policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system

Children in the child welfare system are dependent upon Medicaid to finance services for their considerable mental health needs. This study examines the effects of Medicaid policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system. Data for this study came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the Caring for Children in Child Welfare study, and the Area Resource File. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects of policy variables on children's use of mental health services, controlling for child-level covariates and county-level health resources. Children in counties with behavioral carve-outs under Medicaid managed care had lower odds of inpatient mental health service use. Medicaid managed care enrollment and variations in type of provider reimbursement did not affect use of mental health services. Older age, greater need for mental health services, and higher levels of caregiver education were associated with increased odds of service use. Restrictions on use of inpatient mental healthcare caused by behavioral carve-outs may disproportionately affect children in the child welfare system who have high rates of such use. Careful adoption of carve-outs is necessary to assure appropriate care for these children.