Three pseudo-paradoxes in ‘quantum’ decision theory: Apparent effects of observation on probability and utility

In quantum domains, the measurement (or observation) of one of a pair of complementary variables introduces an unavoidable uncertainty in the value of that variable's complement. Such uncertainties are negligible in Newtonian worlds, where observations can be made without appreciably disturbing the observed system. Hence, one would not expect that an observation of a non-quantum probabilistic outcome could affect a probability distribution over subsequently possible states, in a way that would conflict with classical probability calculations. This paper examines three problems in which observations appear to affect the probabilities and expected utilities of subsequent outcomes, in ways which may appear paradoxical. Deeper analysis of these problems reveals that the anomalies arise, not from paradox, but rather from faulty inferences drawn from the observations themselves. Thus the notion of quantum decision theory is disparaged.     

Managing Uncertainty through Profit Sharing Contracts from Medieval Italy to Silicon Valley

Organizational innovation is essential to economic development. But, the way successful societies have organized new ventures has been remarkably similar in both past and present. The commenda organizations of medieval Italy shared many characteristics with modern startups that are financed by venture capital. Profit share contracts; limited liability and periodic reevaluations are cases in point. Agency contracts in both types of ventures are designed to absorb the high uncertainty inherent to these enterprises through risk sharing. Uncertainty prohibits a unique ex ante ranking order of investment projects and prompts investors to look for hidden human capital. Equity finance is better equipped to even out unexpected losses and gains that are inherent to uncertainty than debt finance.     

基于可变参数优化的相关证据合成方法研究

总结了相关证据合成的理论方法,分析了已有合成方法的不足,对相关证据的相关焦元 的分布情况进行了分析,提出一种面向问题的基于可变参数的相关证据的合成方法. 方法只对 相关焦元的基本可信数进行修正,克服了对相关证据所有焦元进行修正的弱点,使修正的对象 更加合理,修正系数可用基于学习的寻优方法得到. 在相关证据的相关焦元的基本可信数未知 的情况下也可进行相关证据的合成. 计算结果表明该方法对合成的结果有明显的改进     

中国内地和香港能否构成最优货币区研究--来自实证结果的分析

亚洲金融危机后 ,东亚和东南亚国家开始探讨亚洲货币合作问题 ,“亚元”也被提出并受到越来越多的关注。对于统一主权下的中国内地和香港来说 ,在这方面能否先行一步 ?尤其是随着两地经济一体化的发展 ,内地和香港会不会像欧盟那样在经济一体化条件成熟后采用单一货币呢 ?文章在最优货币区理论的基础上对内地和香港经济冲击的对称性进行研究 ,探讨人民币和港币是否有条件实现货币一体化。研究表明目前内地和香港经济冲击的对称性不够高 ,还没有满足组成最优货币区的条件 ,但是从内地和香港未来的发展方向来看 ,经济冲击的对称性将随着经济一体化程度的提高而提高 ,货币一体化的条件也将逐渐成熟。     

Optimization Model and Algorithm for Crew Management During Airline Irregular Operations

Airline irregular operations have long been a realm where human experience and judgement are the most important tools to utilize. Crew management during irregular operations is usually the bottleneck of the whole system-recovering process due to complicated crew schedules and restrictive crew legalities as well as the size and scope of the hub-and-spoke networks adopted by major carriers. A system-wide multi-commodity integer network flow model and a heuristic search algorithm for the above purpose are presented and discussed in this paper. The computational experiences show that the algorithm is efficient enough to solve problems of realistic size and also has the flexibility to accommodate practical business requirements.     

On the effectiveness of cognitive feedback from an interface agent

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of task information (TI) provided by an interface agent during the idea evaluation and integration step of the problem formulation stage of the problem solving process. The effectiveness assessment was based on solving diagnostic decision problems in the domain of complex industrial machinery. Ten domain experts participated in this study. Decision support was provided by a case-based reasoning system. Findings suggest that TI provided by the interface agent had no effect on the decision maker's performance, nor on the associated cognitive effort. However, a verbal protocol analysis revealed that the ten subjects used the interface agent to verify their decision processes. The results and their implications are discussed with respect to current findings in the area of decision support systems.     

不同质量权重评分规则下的多维招标机制设计

本文主要研究包括价格变量及非价格变量(质量)的多维招标机制设计,在Che模型评分规则的基础上引入新的参数,研究了赋予质量不同权重的第一高分和第二高分招标机制的均衡情况。研究发现,不管新参数如何变化,第一高分招标和第二高分招标是等价的。在该评分规则下,买方还可以灵活根据自己的质量偏好、设定质量门槛筛选企业。如果买方和中标企业在中标后有协调机制,则能实现共赢、社会福利的最大化。     

语言多属性决策的目标规划模型

研究了只有部分属性权重信息、属性值以语言变量或不确定语言变量形式给出且决策者对方案有偏好信息的语言多属性决策问题.给出了语言变量和不确定语言变量的运算法则,以及不确定语言变量之间比较的可能度公式,定义了语言变量的偏离度概念.在属性值以1)语言变量和2)不确定语言变量,这两种形式给出的情形下,分别建立了一个基于偏离度的目标规划模型,并通过求解这两种模型分别获得相应的属性权重.然后对于情形1),利用语言加权平均(LWA)算子,对语言决策信息进行加权集成,继而对方案进行排序和择优;对于情形2),利用不确定语言加权平均(ULWA)算子,对不确定语言决策信息进行加权集成,并利用可能度公式构造可能度矩阵(互补判断矩阵),继而利用互补判断矩阵排序公式对决策方案进行排序和择优.最后进行了实例分析.     

具有网络外部性的产品兼容性决策分析

通过Stachelberg竞争模型,本文研究了在具有网络外部性的市场中,拥有专有技术的主导厂商对其兼容技术的授权动机问题。并且得到了主导厂商在纵向兼容决策中最优厂商数量的控制的关系。     

GM Foods and the Misperception of Risk Perception

Public opposition to genetically modified (GM) food and crops is widely interpreted as the result of the public's misperception of the risks. With scientific assessment pointing to no unique risks from GM crops and foods, a strategy of accurate risk communication from trusted sources has been advocated. This is based on the assumption that the benefits of GM crops and foods are self-evident. Informed by the interpretation of some qualitative interviews with lay people, we use data from the Eurobarometer survey on biotechnology to explore the hypothesis that it is not so much the perception of risks as the absence of benefits that is the basis of the widespread rejection of GM foods and crops by the European public. Some respondents perceive both risks and benefits, and may be trading off these attributes along the lines of a rational choice model. However, for others, one attribute-benefit-appears to dominate their judgments: the lexicographic heuristic. For these respondents, their perception of risk is of limited importance in the formation of attitudes toward GM food and crops. The implication is that the absence of perceived benefits from GM foods and crops calls into question the relevance of risk communication strategies for bringing about change in public opinion.