Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures

In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.     

Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

A framework for the comparison of maximum pseudo-likelihood and maximum likelihood estimation of exponential family random graph models

The statistical modeling of social network data is difficult due to the complex dependence structure of the tie variables. Statistical exponential families of distributions provide a flexible way to model such dependence. They enable the statistical characteristics of the network to be encapsulated within an exponential family random graph (ERG) model. For a long time, however, likelihood-based estimation was only feasible for ERG models assuming dyad independence. For more realistic and complex models inference has been based on the pseudo-likelihood. Recent advances in computational methods have made likelihood-based inference practical, and comparison of the different estimators possible.     

Power and dependence perspectives on outsourcing decisions

Since the 1980s outsourcing has been a major topic in both economic and management literature. Economic literature tends to focus on the transaction cost perspective. In management literature the core competence approach prevails. An emerging alternative view on outsourcing is the power and dependence perspective. Aspects of power and dependence become visible in four case studies involving the maintenance of capital assets. In each instance both the buyer and supplier sides of the dyad are examined. The paper concludes with managerial implications and research opportunities.     

高校服务农村经济建设的路径研究

建设社会主义新农村的核心是增强农村经济建设,提高农民收入。高校肩负着服务区域经济的神圣历史使命,高校要发挥育人功能,培养农村经济建设人才;发挥科研优势,为农村经济建设提供智力支撑;突出服务社会职能,积极探索科技扶贫新途径;加强信息沟通与交流,提高农民综合素质;强化政策支持,提高师生服务农村的积极性,强化对农村经济建设的服务功能。     

辽宁资源枯竭型城市的持续发展路径。

走出资源枯竭型城市发展的现实困惑是辽宁经济社会全面发展的关键。从经济角度分析辽宁资源枯竭型城市困境之因，指出经济、社会和环境可持续发展路径是辽宁资源枯竭型城市脱困并发展的必然选择，且具有示范意义。     

由表及里:地方服务型政府建构向度研究

服务型政府效能化与人本化建构是公共管理发展的基本向度,也是我国政府体制改革的目标.多年来,我国地方政府体制改革林林总总,风生水起.但是,由于受转型背景的复杂性、体制体系的惯性以及传统社会结构的粘性等因素制约,总体仍处于表象层面.为此,需要相应支点结构性的循序移位,由表及里,实现地方政府体制改革的路径创新,从而把技术性、手段性改革转变为真正为人民服务的体制性改革.     

增强青海经济活力问题研究

本文首先运用数量分析法对西北五省区经济活力进行排位,其结果是:青海经济活力综合指数低于陕西和新疆,高于宁夏和甘肃,位居西北五省区第三。在此基础上,梳理和分析了制约青海经济活力的主要因素,最后提出了进一步增强青海经济活力的主要措施与路径。     

权威重构:司法公开机制的新视角

从新意识形态研究范式论证司法公开正当性成为人们的惯常路径,其最大问题是忽视司法公开及其保障机制背后的非法律因素、资源配置或司法体制方面的问题.实际上,司法公开成为一种司法技艺.通过赋予程序选择权、参与权,司法公开机制勾连当事人和社会公众力量互动,最终激活了司法机关权威的“重生”.     

生态文明建设视角下创新大学生党建工作的路径研究——以宿州学院为例

大学生党员是生态文明观念的传播者,更是推进生态文明建设的先锋队和主力军.当前,在校大学生党员在生态文明方面存在一些意识淡薄与行为失范的问题.高校学生党建工作应以这些问题为导向,分析其在学校生态教育、基层党组织、生态道德修养等方面的成因,找到解决问题的对策.在此基础上,围绕生态文明建设来探索大学生党建工作的路径,如创新党支部设置方式和党建工作模式、丰富宣传教育形式、提升党员服务能力、开展实践活动、构建党员评价体系等,以提升大学生党员的生态文明意识与实践能力.