Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

中国决策情境下的多源流模型及其优化研究

作为当今公共政策研究领域最炙手可热的理论模型之一,约翰·金登的多源流分析理论业已得到国内外学者的广泛应用与认可。在对该模型的相关内容进行简单铺陈后,通过辨析国内外不同的政策主体参与逻辑,进一步厘清了我国公共决策的独有特征。研究重点是在整合提炼西方既有修正思路的基础上,沿袭模型的模糊性假设,结合我国具体实践案例,对多源流模型进行优化与补充。研究表明,中国决策情境下的多源流模型优化主要有提高源流间的融合性、政治源流的核心化、焦点事件的独立化以及特殊情况下的临时决策等四种路径,四种优化与补充路径的有机结合将为进一步提升模型适用性提供帮助。     

采矿工程专业人才培养方案优化与实践

随着全球经济一体化的发展,我国煤炭行业得到了快速发展,煤炭工业需要大量的高素质复合型采矿工程专业毕业生,因此,修订和完善采矿专业人才培养方案具有重要意义。河南理工大学采矿工程专业为了不断提高人才培养质量,对采矿工程专业人才培养方案进行了优化,2010年10月通过全国工程教育专家委员会的认证工作。新的人才培养方案已经得到实施,效果明显。     

大学生专业操作能力优化教学模式的构建——以人力资源管理专业课程为例

高校人才培养与企业实际需求存在匹配度较低的问题,因而有必要构建新的大学生专业操作能力优化教学模式.新的教学模式涵盖目标描述、目标支撑、流程管理、经验教训、工具与表单五个方面.它可以让学生的学习从抽象到具体,从理论到实践,从宏观到微观,从被动接受到主动思考,达到对该模块更深刻的学习、掌握与运用,从而更加适应企业与社会的需求.     

地方高校大学英语课程结构的优化

本文阐述了地方高校大学英语教学长期延用的课程结构体系中存在的一些主要问题,并针对这些问题,提出了建立新型课程结构应该考虑的五个方面。     

基本药物遴选方法的宏观经济效果比较

基本药物遴选的结果与百姓医保报销利益密切相关。我国医改新政关于基本药物遴选的方法学习西方国家，又有所发展。应用比较经济学原理，使用中国统计年鉴数据，测量了世界卫生组织的专家委员会法、中国现行的专家库两轮评审法、循证评价法、药物经济法等四种方法遴选所得基本药物方案的宏观卫生经济数据，得出在医疗卫生体制改革的社会医学领域可以借鉴自然科学统筹优化的组合方法，以获得综合更优的社会期望。     

辽宁资源枯竭型城市的持续发展路径。

走出资源枯竭型城市发展的现实困惑是辽宁经济社会全面发展的关键。从经济角度分析辽宁资源枯竭型城市困境之因，指出经济、社会和环境可持续发展路径是辽宁资源枯竭型城市脱困并发展的必然选择，且具有示范意义。     

由表及里:地方服务型政府建构向度研究

服务型政府效能化与人本化建构是公共管理发展的基本向度,也是我国政府体制改革的目标.多年来,我国地方政府体制改革林林总总,风生水起.但是,由于受转型背景的复杂性、体制体系的惯性以及传统社会结构的粘性等因素制约,总体仍处于表象层面.为此,需要相应支点结构性的循序移位,由表及里,实现地方政府体制改革的路径创新,从而把技术性、手段性改革转变为真正为人民服务的体制性改革.     

增强青海经济活力问题研究

本文首先运用数量分析法对西北五省区经济活力进行排位,其结果是:青海经济活力综合指数低于陕西和新疆,高于宁夏和甘肃,位居西北五省区第三。在此基础上,梳理和分析了制约青海经济活力的主要因素,最后提出了进一步增强青海经济活力的主要措施与路径。     

Bounding Optimal Expected Revenues for Assortment Optimization under Mixtures of Multinomial Logits

We consider assortment problems under a mixture of multinomial logit models. There is a fixed revenue associated with each product. There are multiple customer types. Customers of different types choose according to different multinomial logit models whose parameters depend on the type of the customer. The goal is to find a set of products to offer so as to maximize the expected revenue obtained over all customer types. This assortment problem under the multinomial logit model with multiple customer types is NP‐complete. Although there are heuristics to find good assortments, it is difficult to verify the optimality gap of the heuristics. In this study, motivated by the difficulty of finding optimal solutions and verifying the optimality gap of heuristics, we develop an approach to construct an upper bound on the optimal expected revenue. Our approach can quickly provide upper bounds and these upper bounds can be quite tight. In our computational experiments, over a large set of randomly generated problem instances, the upper bounds provided by our approach deviate from the optimal expected revenues by 0.15% on average and by less than one percent in the worst case. By using our upper bounds, we are able to verify the optimality gaps of a greedy heuristic accurately, even when optimal solutions are not available.