中国快递业发展的区域不平衡性测度研究

选取大陆31个省份2007—2014年样本数据,分别测算三区域、八区域分组下快递业发展的不平衡性及极化趋势。研究结果表明:中国快递业发展存在较强的区域不平衡性,且这种不平衡性还呈现不断加大趋势;东中西快递业发展不平衡性明显,总体呈现东部强中西部弱的特点,基尼系数分解结果显示,东中西组间差异为不平衡性贡献了70%以上的份额,同时东部和西部地区内部也存在相当程度的不平衡性;八区域不平衡性也非常明显,总体呈现沿海强内陆弱、东强西弱、南强北弱的基本格局,组间差异贡献了88%左右的份额,就区域内而言,南部沿海和西北地区不平衡性较强,东部沿海、长江中游及东北地区则较为平衡;三区域及八区域分组下快递业不平衡发展均呈现出不断增强的极化趋势。     

福建省“十一五”期间人口变化与人力资源供给分析

人口预测和人力资源供给分析是为了适应社会经济发展的客观需要而提出的,它们未来的发展状况,对于一个地区的社会经济的发展影响深远。在对福建省"十五"期间人口与人力资源状况分析的基础上,对福建省"十一五"期间人口与人力资源状况进行初步预测,旨在为福建省制定未来的社会经济发展战略提供人口统计上的数据依据。     

An Experiment on the Social Facilitation of Gambling Behavior

Research and theory regarding the social facilitation effect generates the expectation that the presence of other gamblers (or co-actors) in a gaming venue is likely to intensify individual gambling behavior and magnify losses. Fifty male and 66 female participants (116 total) played a computer-simulated electronic gaming machine with a fixed winning sequence, followed by an indefinite losing sequence. Measures of the intensity of gambling behavior included the final payout (a direct measure of losses), average bet-size, number of trials played, and the speed of play. Some participants received false feedback from the computer designed to suggest that other gamers in adjacent rooms were playing and sometimes winning at the same game. Persons who received both sight and sound information, including winning bells and instant messages regarding the wins of other (fake) players, placed more bets and lost more money compared to the other conditions with less information.     

Reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization: Sensitivity analysis

The reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization solves the nontrivial problem of finding demographic flows from population registers or vital statistics and censuses, if available. These flows allow the reconstruction of stocks (age pyramids and vital statistics). After a review of reconstruction methods, the sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the method by stochastic optimization to flawed or missing values, to the length of the reconstruction period, and to variations in the actual demographic flows.     

计划生育工作新机制与人口管理科学的发展

计划生育工作新机制反映了人口管理科学的发展。回顾人口管理学的发展历史,研究我国计划生育工作从旧机制转向新机制,与人口管理科学从传统走向现代的密切联系,积极推动人口管理科学的进一步发展。     

从2010年美国人口普查数据看当前美国种族关系现状

进入21世纪后,美国人口结构发生了巨大的变化,2010年人口普查数据显示出美国正处在人口发展的历史转折点,少数族裔人口增加,拉美裔成为美国第一大少数族裔。与此同时,白人不仅人口数量增长缓慢,而且老龄化严重。这种人口结构的变化将对美国政治、社会、文化等方面产生巨大的影响。年轻人是国家的未来,少数族裔年轻人(18岁以下),尤其是拉美裔青年人数的增加,将给美国的教育和经济发展等带来新的问题和挑战,而且他们的投票取向也将直接影响到政治版图的变化,这种影响将随着他们的成长和进入社会,逐步显现出来。     

Link-tracing sampling with an initial sequential sample of sites: Estimating the size of a hidden human population

We proposed a modification to the variant of link-tracing sampling suggested by Félix-Medina and Thompson [M.H. Félix-Medina, S.K. Thompson, Combining cluster sampling and link-tracing sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations, Journal of Official Statistics 20 (2004) 19–38] that allows the researcher to have certain control of the final sample size, precision of the estimates or other characteristics of the sample that the researcher is interested in controlling. We achieve this goal by selecting an initial sequential sample of sites instead of an initial simple random sample of sites as those authors suggested. We estimate the population size by means of the maximum likelihood estimators suggested by the above-mentioned authors or by the Bayesian estimators proposed by Félix-Medina and Monjardin [M.H. Félix-Medina, P.E. Monjardin, Combining link-tracing sampling and cluster sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations: A Bayesian-assisted approach, Survey Methodology 32 (2006) 187–195]. Variances are estimated by means of jackknife and bootstrap estimators as well as by the delta estimators proposed in the two above-mentioned papers. Interval estimates of the population size are obtained by means of Wald and bootstrap confidence intervals. The results of an exploratory simulation study indicate good performance of the proposed sampling strategy.     

青岛市人口迁移特征及其对经济增长的影响

改革开放以来青岛市一直保持着人口净迁入的态势,人口净迁移率不但很高,而且一直在快速递增.同时,通过实证分析可知,青岛市的人均产出与人口净迁移之间存在很高的正相关性,净迁移人口对经济增长具有显著的影响.据此可以判定:随着青岛市经济的高速持续增长,同时随着户籍制度改革的不断深化,可以预计在今后较长的一个时期内,青岛还会继续保持较高的人口净迁入,并由此对经济发展产生积极的促进作用.     

西部地区社会保障体系的模式设计与理论创新

西部地区的经济发展需要社会保障制度为其构筑一道“安全网”。回顾西部地区社会保障的发展历史，从社会保障中几个重要指标出发对西部地区社会保障制度作出绩效评估、分析其原因，并且提出西部地区建立覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系的基本框架、实现路径、步骤与措施。     

Compter : l’invention de la statistique des fonctionnaires en France (1890-1930)

Civil servant statistics in France were invented on the margins of the state during the period from 1890 to 1930. This invention came out of activist and/or professional rationales that were desynchronized with the drafting or application of polices for reducing the number of government employees. There were three successive phases. At the dawn of the xx^th century, civil servants were counted in order to inveigh against “functionarism” and “depopulation”. During the decade before World War I, counting them was a matter of improving the expertise of statisticians. Between the two World Wars, sharp cuts were made in personnel, while civil service statistics were held in abeyance. By focusing on how civil servant statistics have been produced and used, the approach proposed herein sheds new light on a persistent but paradoxical discourse in France that ignores how many civil servants there are while claiming that there are too many.