交通警察权与其他行政权的关系及其实现——行政权谱系中的考察

处于行政权谱系的交通警察权与其他行政权的关系主要表现为职务协助,该定位不仅可为相关规章内容不统一问题提供正当性注解,而且基于法规范与法事实的错位以及城市治理的合作化诉求,也有其存在的正当性基础。两者职务协助关系应在双重维度下展开:交通警察的协助行为应具备基础性条件、职权性要求、被动性情势、裁量性过程4要件;而其他行政主体协助行为的"基础性条件"应更为宽泛。对协助请求遭拒与协助行为责任承担,应规定不同的救济路径。     

不同震级作用下的设备 结构动力相互作用体系地震反应分析

为研究是否考虑设备 结构动力相互作用在不同地震阶段的差别,对建筑结构中常见的设备 结构相互作用体系进行了小震、中震和大震阶段的地震时程反应分析。分析了不同震级作用下考虑相互作用后给结构与设备的地震反应带来的变化。结果表明：考虑设备 结构动力相互作用与不考虑相互作用相比,结构的地震反应有较明显的区别,设备的地震反应有很大的区别,处于完全失真的状态。大震阶段由于设备和结构均进入了弹塑性阶段,刚度等主要参数发生了变化,导致动力相互作用的影响降低。虽然设备质量占结构总地震质量的比例很小,但仍会对结构位移与内力造成较大的影响。     

平稳性检验方法的有效性研究

平稳性检验是时间序列分析的重要研究内容,现有检验方法的性能缺乏系统的比较分析。文章从样本长度的视角研究平稳性检验方法的性能,采用ADF检验、PP检验、KPSS检验和LMC检验四种方法展开实证研究。仿真实验结果表明:时间序列数据长度会对检验方法的准确率产生明显的影响,数据长度较小时检验准确率偏低;数据长度增大时可以提升检验方法的准确率,但仍未能达到100%的上限值。当样本长度较小时,这些方法的检验统计量的渐进分布难以满足,因此其实际检验效果值得探究。样本长度是有限的,因此渐进分布检验方式的改进空间有限,新的检验方式值得探究。     

The intersection of class origin and immigration background in structuring social capital: the role of transnational ties

The study investigates inequalities in access to social capital based on social class origin and immigration background and examines the role of transnational ties in explaining these differences. Social capital is measured with a position generator methodology that separates between national and transnational contacts in a sample of young adults in Sweden with three parental backgrounds: at least one parent born in Iran or Yugoslavia, or two Sweden‐born parents. The results show that having socioeconomically advantaged parents is associated with higher levels of social capital. Children of immigrants are found to have a greater access to social capital compared to individuals with native background, and the study shows that this is related to transnational contacts, parents’ education and social class in their country of origin. Children of immigrants tend to have more contacts abroad, while there is little difference in the amount of contacts living in Sweden across the three groups. It is concluded that knowledge about immigration group resources help us predict its member's social capital, but that the analysis also needs to consider how social class trajectories and migration jointly structure national and transnational contacts.     

后改制时代中小型出版社发展模式探析

伴随着出版业转企改制的全面完成,中小型出版单位处在一个变幻莫测的拐点,针对这一现状,阐述了亟需关注与解决的核心问题:中小型出版社如何在竞争中获得持续发展。进而从出版主体的准确定位、出版内容的理性选择等方面分析,得出了用现代企业的发展理念促进中小型出版社均衡发展这一结论。研究结果为中小出版单位发展具有指导作用。     

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model

Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.     

Non-asymptotic sequential confidence regions with fixed sizes for the multivariate nonlinear parameters of regression

In this paper we consider a sequential design for the estimation of nonlinear parameters of regression with guaranteed accuracy. Non-asymptotic confidence regions with fixed sizes for the least squares estimates are used. The obtained confidence region is valid for finite numbers of data points when the distributions of the observations are unknown.     

反腐倡廉的历史方位、主要特点与发展走势

中国在社会大转型与改革开放的伟大实践中走出了一条具有中国特色的反腐败之路。新时期，反腐倡廉建设对于党的建设新的伟大工程具有重要的意义。民主与法治是中国反腐倡廉的根本之道。而通过制度建设来构建国家廉政体系则是反腐倡廉的未来蓝图。     

“为”的语法化考察

从词义、句法位置、重新分析三个方面对“为”的语法化过程进行考察，可以发现，“为”的语法化是“为动”双宾语句消失的主要原因。动词“为”在词义泛化的基础上，由于句法位置和组合功能的变化而最终失去其原来的动词意义和在句子的核心谓词地位，虚化成表引进服务对象的介词，从而导致其双宾语结构的消失，形成新的“介·宾·动”结构。     

Multiperiod Forecasts of Interest Rates

The accuracy of forecasts of interest rates over different forecast horizons and time periods is examined. The results indicate a deterioration in “absolute” forecast accuracy measured by the mean absolute error and the root mean squared error but no decrease in “relative” accuracy measured by the Theil coefficient with an increase in the forecast span. The results also indicate a decline in accuracy in periods of volatile interest rates. Support is found for the hypothesis that the ratio of the variability of predicted changes to that of actual changes falls with an increase in the forecast horizon.