谈广播节目主持人的自我定位

主持人节目是当今深受听众欢迎的广播形式。主持人的自我定位应该是听众的朋友,为他们传达心声,与他们同喜同忧,满足他们的各种需求;同时努力争当合格的"师长",为听众答疑解惑释道,成为他们学习生活以及做人的引导者;另外还要虚心学习,甘当"学生",不断充实提高自己。     

智库的科学分类与准确定位

对智库进行合理分类与准确定位是智库发展的必然。现阶段中国智库的分类标准普遍采用外部标准,并形成了独特的圈层结构和依附属性。智库分类不清、定位不明、评价缺失的不足限制了智库的质量提升。智库的分类需要以其内部因素作为分类标准,形成以研究目标和研究领域两个维度的分类体系,从而形成多样化、分层次的智库类型。未来中国智库发展的要义,在于遵循智库发展的内在规律,依托于科学分类,准确定位,更多按其内在发展机理来优化结构,提升质量,谋划发展。     

Impact of Reseller's Forecasting Accuracy on Channel Member Performance

This article studies a three‐layer supply chain where a manufacturer sells a product through a reseller who then relies on its own salesperson to sell to the end market. The reseller has superior capability in demand forecasting relative to the manufacturer. We explore the main trade‐offs between the risk‐reduction effect and the information–asymmetry–aggravation effect of the improved forecasting accuracy. We show that under the optimal wholesale price contract, both the manufacturer and the reseller are always better off as the reseller's forecasting accuracy improves. Nevertheless, under the menu of two‐part tariffs, the manufacturer prefers the reseller to be either uninformed or perfectly informed about the market condition. We further find that the improved forecasting accuracy is beneficial for the reseller if its current forecasting system is either very poor or very good.     

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

上海国际汽车城环同济知识经济圈的定位及发展思路

上海国际汽车城环同济知识经济圈在嘉定区和同济大学的战略合作布局中居于重要位置。在对上海国际汽车城的产业发展现状、环同济13平方公里的城区发展和土地利用等情况进行充分调研和分析的基础上,结合同济大学嘉定校区的学科现状及未来发展方向,探讨了产学研结合的主要方向,提出上海国际汽车城环同济知识经济圈的整体定位和具体发展思路。     

《墨子》的思维语言艺术

《墨子》是战国时期墨家著作的总集。由墨子初创,墨子后学增益。现存53篇,9万余字,包含多种文体类别。本文从《墨子》全书,勾勒其思维语言艺术,认为其文字表达具有3个重要的特征,即是准确性和鲜明性,生动性和简练性,理趣性和功利性的统一。在中国古籍浩瀚的思维语言艺术历史长河中,具有独特的原创性价值和意义,值得仔细品味,借鉴传承。     

Modelling the tradeoff between postponement capacity and forecast accuracy

The ability to offer rapid delivery of a wide variety of customised products requires companies to maintain high levels of product inventories to quickly respond to customer demands. One alternative for reducing final product inventories while providing the required customer service level is delayed product differentiation, known as postponement. This strategy, however, can result in significant costs of increasing capacity at the postponement stage. Another alternative is to improve forecast accuracy, resulting in costs associated with more sophisticated forecasting methodologies. In this study we model the costs associated with each alternative and the resulting reductions in inventory levels, while maintaining a constant service level. We illustrate the interaction between these variables using a numerical example motivated by our work with a local manufacturer of non-durable household goods. Our findings show that large cost differences can exist between the two strategies, and that these costs play a significant role in determining the best strategy. Also, the value of the product (through holding cost) sets a limit on the benefit that can be realised by either strategy. These results have important managerial implications that should be considered when making the postponement decision.     

实现宁夏旅游产业跨越式发展的定位研究

根据宁夏旅游业的重要作用及地位,结合实践工作经验对发展宁夏旅游业具备的优势条件进行了分析定位;阐明了实现宁夏旅游产业跨越式发展的战略定位在于完善产业规划体系、优化产品区域结构、扶持做大旅游企业等,而相应的具体措施应定位于提升旅游市场营销竞争力、加快六盘山旅游扶贫试验区建设、扶持企业产品转型升级等.     

邯郸市马头生态工业城产业定位研究

论述了发展生态工业城的必然性,调查了邯郸市马头生态工业城的现状,详细分析了马头生态工业城自身条件的优势与劣势,以及外部环境的机会与威胁,并运用战略管理、生态经济、循环经济、区域经济的理论知识,结合国内外生态工业城的成功案例,制定出适合马头生态工业城实际的产业定位战略。     

Between stability and higher-order asymptotics

We discuss the effects of model misspecifications on higher-order asymptotic approximations of the distribution of estimators and test statistics. In particular we show that small deviations from the model can wipe out the nominal improvements of the accuracy obtained at the model by second-order approximations of the distribution of classical statistics. Although there is no guarantee that the first-order robustness properties of robust estimators and tests will carry over to second-order in a neighbourhood of the model, the behaviour of robust procedures in terms of second-order accuracy is generally more stable and reliable than that of their classical counterparts. Finally, we discuss some related work on robust adjustments of the profile likelihood and outline the role of computer algebra in this type of research.