政策转移的若干理论问题探究

政策转移是全球化时代各国公共政策制定领域的普遍现象。西方政治学界对政策转移的研究始于20世纪90年代，在政策转移的衡量标准、分析框架等方面英国学者进行了探讨。但总体来看，政策转移的研究仍存在诸多盲点。我国国内对政策转移的研究目前刚刚起步，许多问题都处于模糊状态，特别是政策转移的基本理论问题亟待探讨，诸如政策转移的内涵与衡量标准，政策转移的发生前提与条件，政策转移的要素、类型与途径，政策转移的性质与特点，政策转移的功能与作用等都需要深入研究。     

马克思辩证法次生态衍义之应然意蕴与可然诠释

近年来，在对马克思辩证法做“原生态”解读与超越的衍义进程中，出现了某种程度上的偏离马克思辩证法本真精神的倾向。笔者对马克思辩证法衍义的“应然”与“可然”意蕴作了尝试性的阐释，旨在还原马克思辩证法的本来面目。     

区域企业群落形成过程中的自组织集聚机理研究

文章从复杂性系统自组织理论及生态物理学的视角,分析和研究了区域产业群落形成过程中的集聚机理,讨论了区域产业群落形成过程中产业生态位,产业集聚核,区域产业场、产业聚集势的作用和重要性,导出了产业聚集势及其势曲线随产业场的变化情况,在一定程度上分析和揭示了区域产业群落的生成机理和发展演化规律。     

基于Wigner高阶谱的ECG信号分析

采用二阶Choi-Wigner Ville变换来分析晚电位信号,解决了用时域或频域方法不能观测到晚电位的问题,并对消除交叉干扰项的问题进行了研究。该方法取得很好的效果,特别针对非高斯信号,它能给出更好的时频分辨率,给医生提供一种新的诊断工具。     

关于地区经济发展潜力指标体系的思考

社会经济量化研究是目前中国社会经济研究的主要方式，是符合当前国际社会经济研究发展潮流的，也是大势所趋。社会经济量化研究这一方式所借助的研究手段主要包含两个方面：一是建立科学、可行的指标体系；二是量化分析的方法或模型的应用。研究要取得成功，首先要有合理、科学的指标体系，在此基础上方能展开各种模型的应用，以达到对社会经济现象的新的认识。只有通过对地区经济发展从概念到实际内容的定性分析，并结合实际指标理论以及实现指标的可能性，方能对地区经济发展潜力评价指标体系以及一般评价指标体系的建立进行比较充分和完整的讨论。     

基于环境学习曲线的山东省SO2排放及节能减排潜力分析

基于1981—2006年的数据对山东省SO2排放的规律进行研究，得到山东省SO2排放的环境学习曲线。应用这一曲线，定量分析山东省17个地级市减少SO2排放的潜力，并结合2006年各市的万元GDP能耗情况，对它们的节能减排潜力进行综合评价。     

公共服务民营化中的关系性契约——以美国廉租房民营化为例

利用民营化向个人提供公共服务已经成为现代行政活动方式的一个中心内容。为确保公共目标的实现,政府采取的主要控制手段是与私人主体缔结清晰全面的行政契约并加强其监督实施。而美国住房福利民营化的实践表明民营化契约更多地体现出关系性契约的特征,这种认知模式可以指导我们调整政府定位,进一步转变以规制为核心的干预行政理念,走向政府与公民之间协作式管理的善治,从而更加有利于实现民营化效率与公共责任的共赢。     

中国省际资本使用效率测算:1981～2005

采用永续盘存法和最新的数据测算中国31个省份1980年~2005年的建筑和设备资本存量,而后结合各省的GDP数据测得中国各省份1981年~2005年的资本边际产出比。从计算结果看,东部省份资本积累已经相对饱和且在2001年前后开始出现资本边际产出递减的情况;中部省份资本存量水平适中;西部省份资本积累还不足,应继续加大资本投入。     

Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.     

A Likelihood‐Based Analysis for Relaxing the Exclusion Restriction in Randomized Experiments with Noncompliance

The exclusion restriction is usually assumed for identifying causal effects in true or only natural randomized experiments with noncompliance. It requires that the assignment to treatment does not have a direct causal effect on the outcome. Despite its importance, the restriction can often be unrealistic, especially in situations of natural experiments. It is shown that, without the exclusion restriction, the parametric model is identified if the outcome distributions of various compliance statuses are in the same parametric class and that class is a linearly independent set over the field of real numbers. However, the relaxation of the exclusion restriction yields a parametric model that is characterized by the presence of mixtures of distributions. This scenario complicates the likelihood‐based estimation procedures because it implies more than one maximum likelihood point. A two‐step estimation procedure based on detecting the root that is closest to the method of moments estimate of the parameter vector is then proposed and analyzed in detail, under normally distributed outcomes. An economic example with real data concerning returns to schooling concludes the paper.