On prediction from the location-scale model with equi correlated response

The location-scale model with equi-correlated responses is discussed. The structure of the location-scale model is utilised to genera-te the prediction distribution of a future response and that of a set of future responses. The method avoids the integration procedures usually involved in derivation of prediction distributions and yields results same as those obtained by the Bayes method with the vague prior distribution* Finally the re-suits have been specialised to cover the case of the normal intra-class model.     

A note on approximate confidence limits for the negative binomial model

Four methods of approximating confidence limits for the single negative binomial parameter, P, are outlined and an empirical study is presented. Some remarks on prediction intervals are also included.     

基于灰色系统建模技术的人体疾病早期预测预警研究

传统健康体检主要通过对单次体检指标进行横向比较和静态分析,忽略个体差异,纯粹从指标高低来判断体检者健康状况与身体状态,难以及时发现体检者可能存在的疾病隐患。由于个体体检指标具有样本量小、信息不确定、数据类型异构、影响因素构成复杂等特征,传统以大样本为基础的数学模型均难以适应此类小数据系统的建模要求。为此,通过建立适用于人体主要指标趋势预测的灰色系统模型（简称HIGM（1,1）模型）,实现对人体主要健康指标的动态建模与趋势分析,从而可以掌握体检者未来一段时间身体指标的变化趋势及可能存在的疾病隐患。研究成果对提升体检效果、强化体检意义,促进灰色理论与现实问题的有效对接等方面,均具有积极意义。     

基于人体膳食均衡视角下的我国果蔬消费趋势预测与结构优化

水果和蔬菜是为人体提供矿物质、维生素、膳食纤维等营养元素的重要农产品,我国居民饮食中普遍存在着能量相对过剩、果蔬摄入量不足的问题。以人体膳食均衡为研究视角,研究我国果蔬消费趋势和结构优化问题,结果表明：按照当前的消费趋势发展,我国居民营养摄入不足与过剩同在的问题依然无法得到解决;我国政府在制定水果和蔬菜战略布局的决策中,应综合考虑人体的膳食营养均衡和未来市场营养需求,以实现我国果蔬产业布局优化;消费者在进行水果和蔬菜消费购买行为时,应在营养膳食均衡的基础上进行合理消费。     

平稳性检验方法的有效性研究

平稳性检验是时间序列分析的重要研究内容,现有检验方法的性能缺乏系统的比较分析。文章从样本长度的视角研究平稳性检验方法的性能,采用ADF检验、PP检验、KPSS检验和LMC检验四种方法展开实证研究。仿真实验结果表明:时间序列数据长度会对检验方法的准确率产生明显的影响,数据长度较小时检验准确率偏低;数据长度增大时可以提升检验方法的准确率,但仍未能达到100%的上限值。当样本长度较小时,这些方法的检验统计量的渐进分布难以满足,因此其实际检验效果值得探究。样本长度是有限的,因此渐进分布检验方式的改进空间有限,新的检验方式值得探究。     

On asymptotic distribution of prediction in functional linear regression

There has been substantial recent attention on problems involving a functional linear regression model with scalar response. Among them, there have been few works dealing with asymptotic distribution of prediction in functional linear regression models. In recent literature, the centeral limit theorem for prediction has been discussed, but the proof and conditions under which the random bias terms for a fixed predictor converge to zero have been ignored so that the impact of these terms on the convergence of the prediction has not been well understood. Clarifying the proof and conditions under which the bias terms converge to zero, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the prediction is normal. Furthermore, we have derived those results related to other terms that already obtained by others, under milder conditions. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to investigate performance of the asymptotic distribution under various parameter settings.     

陕西高校各类教育提升全人素质的预测模型

采用"高校全人素质量表"随机抽样省部属8所高校4 953名大学生,对调查数据做SPSS多元回归参数估计和AMOS结构方程模型构建。结果表明,德育教育和专业教育分别对大学生全人素质16项指数产生显著正效应;德育教育"立德效应"主提升德道品质、心身健康、人生意义等素质;专业教育"树人效应"主提升求知钻研、学术探索、技术能力、语言思维等素质。研究结果为陕西高校全人素质教育提供了实证参数和理论依据。