新一代信息技术驱动的产品适应性创新机制

现有产品创新研究多从用户、产品以及技术单一视角出发,然而,进入数字经济时代,在新一代信息技术驱动下,产品以用户、企业、环境多维互动的方式进行创新,呈现出特有的适应性创新特征。本文采取多案例研究方法,探讨在新一代信息技术驱动下产品适应性创新的特征和实现机制。研究发现:产品适应创新具有高频互动、即时反馈、快速适应性和用户主导创新四个显著特征,形成用户、企业、产品多方互动的适应性创新实现机制。与此同时,通过案例论证以产品、场景、用户为核心特征的产品适应创新实现机制的存在性,指出其本质是深入挖掘用户需求并实现用户需求的快速匹配。     

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future.     

Response-adaptive trial designs with accelerated Thompson sampling

In a clinical trial, sometimes it is desirable to allocate as many patients as possible to the best treatment, in particular, when a trial for a rare disease may contain a considerable portion of the whole target population. The Gittins index rule is a powerful tool for sequentially allocating patients to the best treatment based on the responses of patients already treated. However, its application in clinical trials is limited due to technical complexity and lack of randomness. Thompson sampling is an appealing approach, since it makes a compromise between optimal treatment allocation and randomness with some desirable optimal properties in the machine learning context. However, in clinical trial settings, multiple simulation studies have shown disappointing results with Thompson samplers. We consider how to improve short-run performance of Thompson sampling and propose a novel acceleration approach. This approach can also be applied to situations when patients can only be allocated by batch and is very easy to implement without using complex algorithms. A simulation study showed that this approach could improve the performance of Thompson sampling in terms of average total response rate. An application to a redesign of a preference trial to maximize patient's satisfaction is also presented.     

桶装水灌装机优化设计

针对现有桶装水灌装生产线中灌装机产能较低、产品适应能力差的缺点,提出了能够适用于19升、17升、11升等多种桶型的高速柔性化灌装机的设计方案。灌装机的灌装头采用气动比例调节阀搭配传感器进行闭环控制,使得灌装液位精确,减少液体飞溅;进瓶装置采用星轮拨爪和由伺服电机驱动的链条传动装置联动的方式,实现水桶的精准拉距,实现多种瓶型快速切换的功能;瓶盖输送机构,结合盖子杀菌柜,实现在线杀菌功能,安全可靠。应用结果表明文章的设计能改善原有桶装水灌装机柔性差、速度慢、可靠性低的现状。优化设计的桶装水灌装机提高了生产效率,降低成本。     

附着与隧通——心智的工作模式

深度学习框架加速了人工智能技术的发展,越来越多的人工智能系统在专业领域超越人类,但沿此路径能否指引机器模拟出类人智能仍然没有定论。强计算主义的观点主张意识和智能可以被物理还原,甚至可以忽略意识。哥德尔等学者则倾向于机器无法模拟或超越人类。文章提出认知坎陷（意识片段）的“附着”与“隧通”这一对范畴,从新的视角探讨心智的工作模式。认知坎陷具有超越时空和流变的特性,在某时某地某景可以“附着”在某个具体对象之上。认知坎陷之间可以通过“隧通”链接成一个网络。“自我”作为最原初和最重要的认知坎陷,是人类意识与智能的发端。智能的作用之一是在情景改变时将“自我”“附着”到更合适的对象上。     

基于人工神经网络的在线设备状态监测系统的研究(英文)

研究了基于人工神经网络在线设备状态监测系统,简要介绍了人工神经网络的基础理论,描述了基于人工神经网络在线设备状态监测系的结构和工作过程,给出该系统对卷烟机MK9-5的状态监测和故障诊断的结果。实验结果表明,将多层前馈人工种经网络用于设备在线状态监测具有较好的效果,并可对设备故障进行可靠诊断。     

机器翻译中的多义问题探析

机器翻译(MachineTranslation)是自然语言处理中的一个研究分支,其发展应建立在完善的语言学研究的基础上。词义学层面中词性的多样性、词义的多义性和格的多义性,语用学层面中的指示多义性及会话含义多义性给机器翻译造成了障碍,而加强机译系统中的词典研究,重视机译系统中上下文的处理,设计强有力的机译文法体系则是解决这些问题的有效途径。     

汉英平行语料库双语语义对应空位研究

双语词语语义对应空位现象是英汉互译的常见障碍。在建立英汉平行语料库的过程中,这也是无法回避的问题。本文拟总结目前已建成的一些语料库处理这一问题的习惯方式,并在此基础上借鉴机器翻译研究领域的理论成果,试图做出更加细致的分析并提出更加可行的解决方案。     

谈受限汉语在机器翻译中的运用——以中文简历英译为例

随着国际交流的深入,越来越多的中国人需要把中文简历翻译成英文。但是,简历汉语的特殊性使机器翻译还存有许多不足,导致汉译英的简历表达不尽如人意。要解决这一问题,就有必要对简历中汉语的词汇、句法和语义等进行限制,并建立翻译句模,以简化句子结构,减少或消除汉语表达的歧义,从而提高机器翻译系统的译文质量。受限汉语和句模在机器翻译中的应用,可以推广到饭店订餐和房间预订等受限领域的机器翻译系统中。     

机器翻译系统的历史与研究现状分析

机器翻译系统的研究发展已有50多年的历史,应用领域也由原本的单一局限扩展为如今更广的范围。一些旨在提高并改善机器翻译系统翻译质量的研究正在陆续进行,但如何能更好地探索机器翻译的新理论和新技术,满足用户的使用需求,解决机器翻译系统存在的问题,仍是研究者面临的严峻考验。