中国—东盟政治合作机制研究

本文根据中国—东盟区域合作发展的政治合作机制的概念及呈现的多维特性,运用政治合作的目标分解和构成要素,对政治合作机制进行综合的结构分析。通过利益泛化(低度)、制度分化(中度)和价值固化(深度)生成的三个阶段性使命目标(和睦共享、和平共处与和谐共荣)合作过程的剖析,对中国—东盟政治合作机制建设的结构性问题进行探讨,以此助推区域政治合作机制的改进和优化。     

长吉区域一体化的城际轨道交通出行表征

区域一体化进程中，城际轨道交通客流成为城市区域功能联系的重要表征，本研究选取长吉城际动车出行为研究对象，通过对乘客群体问卷访谈式的实证调查，从微观个体的角度分析城际轨道交通所表征的空间一体化。研究发现：（1）在总体的客流属性方面，乘坐动车的人群以高学历白领群体为主，表征了一体化进程中城际轨道交通作为流动空间物质基础的社会极化效应；（2）在到发客流空间分布方面，长春与吉林的中心城区都属于城际出行强度集中区，郊区县市属于客流稀疏区，空间分布的极化效应非常明显，同时相对于前往吉林市的客流来说，更多比例的客流以长春市为目的地：（3）在功能性活动空间交互方面，若固定户籍地考察居住、工作和消费等功能性活动的偏移，更多的乘客属于户籍地在吉林、其余基本活动在长春的情形，说明一体化进程中城际轨道交通客流表征了区域发展的空间不均衡。     

建构区域文化认同的“影视叙事综合体”——以“京津冀协同发展”为视角

“京津冀区域协同发展”的历史机遇已然到来，而长期以来各成气象的文化形象影响了三地之间的融通和发展。打通文化根脉，营造共通的文化空间，建构区域文化认同，消解隔膜与屏障，是推动区域协同发展的当务之急。在大众传播时代，影视艺术是蕴藉文化，构建形象，传播共识的主要媒介类型。“影视叙事综合体”以影视艺术为传播载体，通过叙事行为、叙事故事、叙事话语、叙事反应等影视叙事功能建构区域文化认同的影像文化空间，提升区域文化形象，促进区域文化的融通和协同发展。     

Global adjustment to US disengagement from the world trading system

US trade policy in the Trump administration is protectionist, raising tariffs outside of WTO rules, threatening trade wars, withdrawing from existing trade agreements, and negotiating new bilateral trade deals rather than free trade agreements. The reaction of the rest of the world has been to support the WTO rules-based trading system and to pursue new and expanded regional trade agreements that do not include the US. The result may be US disengagement from the world trading system, with countries diverting trade around the US. We use a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze changes in trade and production patterns for a variety of scenarios, including US trade wars. We find that adjustment to US disengagement is feasible—the changes in trade shares as countries divert trade are modest and achievable, with very little impact on the volume of global trade. If the US engages in trade wars with major partners, the best response for other trade partners is to sit out the trade war, accept higher US tariffs, and gain markets from global trade diversion around the US. Finally, because of indirect effects, widespread tariffs fail to benefit the protected sectors—a fallacy of composition in a protectionist trade policy.     

非期望产出下我国能源消耗产出效率差异研究

提高能源消耗产出效率是新常态下经济发展的必然趋势，随机扰动和外部环境是研究能源消耗产出效率不可回避的问题，而传统的DEA模型无法剔除非期望产出对效率值的影响。本文通过构建四阶段Bootstrap-DEA-Malmquist模型，采用1990~2014年的省际面板数据作为样本数据，通过松弛指标调整能源投入，剔除外部环境和随机因素对能源效率和能源全要素生产率的扰动，并借助Bootstrap随机抽样法进一步减小由于样本差异造成的影响，从静态和动态两个维度测算了中国能源消耗产出效率和全要素生产率。研究发现，外部环境和随机扰动对能源效率的估算具有显著影响，剔除外部环境影响因素后得到的能源效率值、技术效率变化以及全要素生产率变动均有不同程度的下降，而调整初始投入后的技术进步值有所上升。此外，考虑环境因素时，能源效率值下降，但是进一步运用Bootstrap随机抽样法消除随机因素的影响后，能源效率值有所上升。本文的主要贡献在于将环境因素和随机因素从能源效率与能源全要素生产率的测算中剥离，获得更为准确的能源效率值和能源全要素生产率值。     

区域多元化抑或产品多元化?制度环境约束下民营企业核心能力构建与成长战略选择

在文献与理论研究的基础上,构建了制度环境、核心能力与企业成长战略选择之间关系的概念模型,并提出了相关假设。然后,以中国民营上市公司2007-2014年数据为对象进行实证检验,结果发现:市场化程度更高的区域,民营企业倾向于构建"行业专家"型核心能力,进而倾向于选择"做强"的区域多元化战略;市场化程度相对较低的区域,民营企业更多倾向于构建"社会资本"型核心能力,进而会选择"做大"的产品多元化战略。上述发现为企业成长与多元化战略理论补充了新的内容。     

Bounded risk estimation of a linear combination of location parameters in negative exponential distributions via three-stage sampling

The paper deals with the problem of bounded risk point estimation for a linear combination of location parameters of two negative exponential distributions. Isogai and Futschik considered the situation when the location and scale parameters are all unknown. They proposed purely sequential procedures and gave second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. In this paper we propose three-stage procedures and derive second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. Further, we compare the results with those from previous work.     

安徽教育投资发展状况及优化路径研究

近年来，安徽省教育投资环境明显改善，大力推进教育均衡发展，教育投资总量不断增加，教育事业稳步发展，但同时也暴露出诸多问题。安徽省教育投资发展存在的主要问题是：教育投资增速放缓，多元化投资渠道尚未形成，投资结构不合理，区域分布不均衡。在“十九大”提出的教育发展精神指导下，针对安徽省教育投资发展现状与存在的主要问题，提出优化安徽省教育投资发展的主要路径。     

地域文化在环境艺术设计中的应用与传承

为了更好地实现在环境艺术设计中传承地域文化，了解两者的基本定义是基础。从地域文化与环境艺术的概念出发，就地域文化对环境艺术表现与缺失进行深入分析，同时通过探析地域文化对环境艺术设计的现实意义，对环境设计中地域文化的应用与传承进行研究。     

韩国全罗南道岁时风俗研究

Seasonal customs, also called“performances that take place within a one year cycle”, refer to a series of customs, patterns or norms practiced periodically and habitually on spe-cific days within the regular cycle of the four sea-sons. Seasonal customs are found in every month, such as the Spring Festival in the first month, Laborers’ Day in the second month, The 3rd day in the third month, the birthday of Sakyamuni in the fourth month, the Dano Festival in the fifth month, etc. ( all dates mentioned in this paper are in the lunar calendar) . As the years go by, the seasonal customs change constantly. Many of them have been faded as society has changed, and they have been replaced by National Holidays or other legal holidays which regulate people’s lives. In addition, as western and other cultures filter in, holidays like Valentine’s Day, and Christmas have stepped into people’s lives. Because these festivals are no longer linked with traditional religious meanings found in the old customs, and place more emphasis on entertainment, they have been accepted almost instantly, taking up social space, and changing people’s activities and behaviors. Apart from these, festivals in some particular areas became popular and spread nationwide as the result of na-tional policies. As an important constituent, seasonal customs can reveal the cultural state and spiritual world of a country or region. Jeollanam-do in South Korea, known as the treasure house of customs, possesses rich customs and heritage and various annual cus-toms can be seen here. This paper, by making a general investigation of the customs in Jeollanam-do, can help us further understand the state of this region’s history and ideology, and the cultural im-plications hidden within it. In the first month of the lunar calendar, the primary festivals are the Spring Festival, the First Day of the First Lunar Month, and the Fifteenth Day of the First Lunar Month. 1 ) In the Spring Festival, the most important activities are offering sacrifices to gods and ancestors, sweeping tombs, and paying New Year’s visits. People also believe that this is the proper time to avoid the“three dis-asters”, keep away night ghosts, burn hair, and go to fortune tellers, etc. There are also games played in this period, such as the see-saw and board-turning. 2) the First Day of the First Lunar Month cannot be counted as a traditional festival. However, a day’s rest is taken in the countryside when every house sticks spring couplets on their doors or pillars. These are pairs of long strips of paper on which auspicious words or sayings are written. 3 ) In traditional society, when farming dominated, people observed the Fifteenth Day of the First Lunar Month with grand ceremony, main-ly through engaging in entertaining activities. In Jeollanam-do, the festival atmosphere is warmly created by playing folk or peasant music, flying kites, playing tug-of-war games, or Gohssaum, and so on. In addition to the group activities, indi-vidual families might offer sacrifices in their hou-ses. Each village also offers sacrifices together, known as the Tangshan Sacrifice and Dragon King Sacrifice. There are various superstitions related to this day. For example, many people will buy a strainer and hang it at home, believing that it will bring blessings. Or, on the eve of this day people might set fires on field ridges, believing that this will bring a good harvest. People might also set up Changsheng or Changganzi, along the borders or milestones separating villages from each other, which are known as the patron gods protecting their territory. On this day the staple food is supposed to be“Wugufan”, literally“Rice with Five Grains”, which actually includes more than five kinds of va-rious grains. It is so-called because all the main grains are collectively called “five grains”. In ad-dition, people also cook the“Eight Treasures Rice Soup” which contains glutinous rice, Chinese dates, chestnut, honey, pine nuts, an beans, etc. In the second lunar month, there are the Laborers’ Day and the Yongdung Festival. On the 1st of the second month, Laborers’ Day, laborers used to be given a day’s rest when people made a kind of dessert known as “Agecake”. However, because no one hires laborers nowadays, this cus-tom has actually disappeared. It is said that on 1st day of the second month, Yongdung Halmoni de-scends from the sky, and returns there on the 15th or 20th day. Yongdung Halmoni is said to be the goddess in charge of wind, so, in fishing areas where wind matters a lot, people will offer sacri-fices to her. It is said that if Yongdung Halmoni descends with her daughter-in-law, the wind throughout the whole year will be too strong to guarantee a good harvest, but good sailings can be counted on if she descends with her daughter. On the 3rd day of the third month, women in Jeollanam-do bring simple cooking equipment to the riverside, and pass a pleasant day there. They mix glutinous rice powder with rhododendron petals to make pancakes which they call “flower pan-cakes”. While they eat, they sing songs about flower pancakes or other folk songs. Around 3 rd day of the third month, butterflies start to appear and “dance”. It is believed that if yellow butter-flies are seen first, the coming year will be smooth, but if white butterflies are seen first, there will be many funerals or other inauspicious things. On the 8 th day of the fourth month the birthday of Sakyamuni, many people go to the temples and hang Buddhist lanterns. The display of lanterns on that day is truly grand. It is attended mainly by women who pray for happiness, safety, good health, success and prosperity for their family members. In the temples, people perform the ritu-al of“circumambulating the stupas”, spending the entire night sleepless walking around the stupas, praising gods’ merits and credits, and repeating their wishes in their hearts. While circling the stu-pas, people usually listen to Buddhist chants,some places may play the traditional music with tradi-fional instrument. On the 5th day of the fifth month, on the Dano Festival, the following activities are found in Jeol-lanam-do. 1 ) wrestling, a competitive game played mainly by males; 2 ) swinging, played mainly by females; 3 ) washing hair with acorus calamus. It is believed that hair becomes smooth and shiny if washed with water boiled with acorus calamus. Therefore, many women wash their hair in this way on the 5th day of the fifth month. 4) imbibing herbal medicine. During the Dano Festi-val, all things on the earth are said to be suitable for medicine. There are drinkable herbal juices made from Leonurus heterophyllus, or Ay Tsao. People pluck all kinds of herbs and dry them for future use. The 15 th day of the sixth lunar month is Yudu Day. It is believed that if you wash your hair with clear stream water on this day, bad luck is kept a-way and you will not suffer heatstroke in summer. According to local folklore, the Dragon God and God of the field ditches check on the crops on this day, so no fieldwork is allowed, and a day’s rest is required. If people insist on going to work, it is said they will not have a good harvest. Rice cakes are also prepared on this day and placed in the crop fields as simple offerings to the Dragon God for a good harvest. In June, which has the hottest days in the year, the month is divided into the ini-tial, middle and final hottest days. In order to build up their health, people cook delicious gin-seng chicken soup by putting ginseng, jujubes and glutinous rice into the chicken’s abdomen. Or, for the sake of vitality, some men may drink a body-protecting soup, the so-called dog meat soup. The 7 th day of the seventh month is the Chilseok Festival. Since Chilseok is closely con-nected with the Chilseok God, every family will pray to the Chilseok God for blessings, or go to temples to offer sacrifices. In this festival some families may offer sacrifices to Chengzhu God as in other festivals, but not many offerings are required except for some rice and vegetable dishes. On the 15th day, the Baekjung Day, all kinds of fortune-telling activities prevail. All fieldwork stops and a day’s rest is taken. On this day people also prepare food to offer to the ancestors. The 15th day of the eight month, the Mid-Au-tumn Festival, is characterized by harvest and thanks-giving. Various activities can be seen in Je-ollanam-do, among which offering sacrifices and sweeping tombs are given priority, even more than during the Spring Festival. During the mid-autumn days everyone, rich or poor, makes Songbing, which is very much like a Chinese moon cake, and it is still the most representative festival food for the Mid-Autumn Festival Day. After finishing mak-ing the Songbing with newly harvested rice, people will carry them together with many fruits to offer sacrifices in the early morning and sweep tombs. Some people may go to the cemetery to pull weeds before sweeping tombs. At night, during the full moon, in order to liven up atmosphere, women will perform traditional dance . There is also a custom observed on the Mid-autumn day—married daugh-ters will meet with their own parents and relatives in a place located mid-way between the two homes. Sometimes, female neighbors may agree to meet with each other at a certain appointed place and bring food along to spend a pleasant day to-gether. The 9 th day of the ninth month is the Jungu Festival. It is no longer regarded as a particular festival, but it is still considered a lucky day. In the past, on this day, people would make wine, rice cakes and even medicine, out of chrysanthe-mums. Moreover, literati would appreciate poems as well as maple leaves, which were quite scenic. There are no special festivals during the 10 th lunar month, though this is considered a lucky month because many things forbidden in other months are permissible during this month. The 15th day is a day for some families to offer sacrifices to ancestors or drive away disasters. In rural areas, one of the family customs is for women to bathe and change their clothes before replacing the old rice in ancestor pot with newly harvested rice. This is re-garded as a recommended ritual to domestic gods of new rice. In the 11th lunar month, at the winter sol-stice, it is customary to have red bean soup, which is cooked with glutinous rice powder and red beans mixed together. Its red color is believed to protect people against evil spirits. People offer the red bean soup to their ancestors, and, splash it in front of doors, on walls, around the kitchen, and in their yards. This is all done in order to keep ghosts outside. The 30th day of the 12th month, New Year’s Eve, is the time to stay up late to see in the New Year. So, every house has lights on overnight. It is customary to visit elderly people and inquire a-bout their physical condition and to show care on this eve. This is called “paying an old year’s call”. In olden times, snow which fell in the 12 th month was put into bottles, and when the snow melted the water was believed to be a good medi-cine for curing heatstroke in summer. To sum up, seasonal customs in Jeollanam-do are multi-functional, including the following five aspects:1 ) worshipping the ancestors;2 ) praying for a good harvest and good fishing;3 ) keeping a-way bad luck and calling for blessings;4 ) sharing happiness and improving harmony;5 ) hygiene and health care. Folk customs in Jeollanam-do are diversified. While taken as the concrete outward representa-tions of seasonal customs, these folk scenarios car-ry distinctive features of local customs: 1 ) rural music is the most important factor constituting these seasonal customs by enriching the functions and connotations; 2 ) With its keen local charac-teristics, distinctive quality of including spells, and carrying a religious sensibility, games are part and parcel to seasonal customs; 3 ) Different cul-tural circles are accompanied by different customs and habits. So there are differences between inland and coastal or island areas, and even within the coastal area, differences can occur among particu-lar sea areas.