Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

试论我国刑事附带民事诉讼执行

刑事附带民事案件执行比普通民事执行更难,有其自身特殊的原因。解决刑事附带民事执行难问题已不是执行机构单方面的努力所能解决的,而需要公安机关、人民检察院、监狱和刑事审判庭等各个部门的通力合作。解决刑事附带民事执行难的最终机制在于建立国家补偿制度。     

一种自适应斜坡补偿电路

基于CMOS工艺设计了一种能够自动调节补偿斜率的斜坡补偿电路。该电路可以跟随输入和输出信号的变化,相应地给出适当的斜坡补偿量,不仅使得峰值电流模式BOOST变换器可以稳定工作,而且可以避免补偿不当的现象,保证变换器有足够快的瞬态响应。仿真结果表明该电路产生的斜坡补偿信号的精度可以达到83%以上。     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

浅议精神损害赔偿举证责任制度的完善

作者分析了精神损害赔偿举证责任问题的现状,认为精神损害赔偿案件的受害者在事实上存在着举证困难的问题,如果局限于传统的民事诉讼举证责任原则,作为受害方可能无法进行有效的举证。因此,应当对精神损害赔偿举证责任问题作出特别规定,以切实维护受害者的合法权益。为了提高我国精神损害赔偿制度中的司法裁判的统一性,有效的保障当事人的合法权益,在精神损害赔偿案件中,应该从三个方面完善我国精神损害赔偿的举证责任制度:首先,慎重对待精神损害赔偿案件中的事实推定;其次,细化精神损害赔偿案件中的举证责任;第三,确立精神损害标准化的制度。     

浅谈负债经营与偿债保障机制

一直以来,企业的负债经营是企业经营中倍受关注的问题之一。究竟负债对企业的经营有何影响,在实践中又该如何降低偿债风险呢?本文从分析举债经营的利弊入手,初步探讨了经营企业的最佳负债率问题,并提出了较为行之有效的偿债保障机制,以期能对企业的负债经营有所借鉴意义。     

银行个人住房抵押贷款预警系统构想

在分析银行住房抵押贷款的各种风险因素的基础之上，提出模糊预警模型，给出预警结果。     

Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.     

薪酬策略与公司竞争战略的匹配机制研究

文章通过对185家企业的实地调研,比较了薪酬策略和公司竞争战略的两种匹配模式:中介匹配和调节匹配.否定了中介匹配模式,支持了调节匹配模式,从而解决了薪酬管理研究中长期存在的争议:两者到底是如何匹配的.公司竞争战略并不能自发地促生出相应的薪酬策略,而是需要相关部门较为独立地开发出相应的薪酬策略与之配套.最后,根据研究发现并提出了一些增进薪酬策略与公司竞争战略匹配度的建议.     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.