Errors in inspection and grading distributional aspects ofscreening and merarchal screening

Continuing the studies of Johnson et al (1980) and Johnson and Kotz (1981), further distributions arising from models of errors in inspection and grading of samples from finite, possibly stratified lots are obtained. Screening, and hierarchal screening forms of inspection are also considered, and the effects of errors on the advantages of these techniques assessed.     

Estimation of Location Parameters Under Nonnormal Errors and Quadratic Loss

Assuming a statistical model in which the joint distribution of the unobservable errors is drawn from independent univariate Student t's that are identically and symmetrically distributed, the sampling performance of traditional robust estimators and a family of Stein-like estimators are compared and evaluated. These results suggest that under thick-tailed distributions, the relative sampling performances and risk characteristics for a range of nonconventional Stein estimators remains approximately the same as in the case of their normal counterparts. The empirical risk implications of misspecifying the error distribution are investigated.     

用人谋略浅谈

本文探究用人谋略的几个方面，即自用、识观、选荐、聚用、借力、激励、统御和培教等，并浅析其意义     

“How Exposed Is Exposed Enough?” Lay Inferences About Chemical Exposure

The concept of exposure is central to chemical risk assessment and plays an important role in communicating to the public about the potential health risks of chemicals. Research on chemical risk perception has found some indication that the model lay people use to judge chemical exposure differs from that of toxicologists, thereby leading to different conclusions about chemical safety. This paper presents the results of a series of studies directed toward developing a model for understanding how lay people interpret the concept of chemical exposure. The results indicate that people's beliefs about chemical exposure (and its risks) are based on two broad categories of inferences. One category of inferences relates to the nature in which contact with a chemical has taken place, including the amount of a chemical involved and its potential health consequences. A second category of inferences about chemical exposure relates to the pragmatics of language interpretation, leading to beliefs about the motives and purposes behind chemical risk communication. Risk communicators are encouraged to consider how alternative models of exposure and language interpretation can lead to conflicting conclusions on the part of the public about chemical safety.     

Use of Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Support Weight of Evidence Evaluation

Weight of evidence (WOE) methods are key components of ecological and human health risk assessments. Most WOE applications rely on the qualitative integration of diverse lines of evidence (LOE) representing impact on ecological receptors and humans. Recent calls for transparency in assessments and justifiability of management decisions are pushing the community to consider quantitative methods for integrated risk assessment and management. This article compares and contrasts the type of information required for application of individual WOE techniques and the outcomes that they provide in ecological risk assessment and proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for integrating individual LOE in support of management decisions. The use of quantitative WOE techniques is illustrated for a hypothetical but realistic case study of selecting remedial alternatives at a contaminated aquatic site. Use of formal MCDA does not necessarily eliminate biases and judgment calls necessary for selecting remedial alternatives, but allows for transparent evaluation and fusion of individual LOE. It also provides justifiable methods for selecting remedial alternatives consistent with stakeholder and decision‐maker values.     

应用数字仿真技术提高电液伺服课教学效果

针对电液伺服课内容抽象、理论推导多、不易理解,且学校实验经费紧张,无法实现物理实验的难点,应用数字仿真方法建立了能完成该课程相关试验内容的虚拟实验环境,同时该软件也可配合课堂教学,对所授内容进行直观演示.     

我国风险投资业面临的问题与对策

风险投资业的发展对我国未来经济的发展起着决定性的作用 ,目前我国风险投资业中存在的问题包括风险资本来源渠道单一、风险投资运营过程不规范、行业人才缺乏以及风险资本退出通道不畅等几个方面。通过对这些问题的分析 ,探讨具体的对策 ,对进一步发展我国的风险投资业具有一定的现实意义。     

Who Lives Near Coke Plants and Oil Refineries? An Exploration of the Environmental Inequity Hypothesis

Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations.The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.The authors are all affiliated with the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis     

大学生抵御创业风险的途径研究

大学生创业作为一个机会，存在着风险，抗风险能力对大学生创业者来说极其重要。分析大学生创业可能遇到的风险形式，剖析大学生创业风险的决定因素，笔者认为大学生提升抵御风险能力的途径是：创业准备要充分、资金管理要科学、创业技能要精通、社会经验要丰富、心理素质要提升。     

正式社会控制为何失败? ———对云南平县拐卖妇女现象的田野调查

通过对平县的实地调查,发现大量的妇女流动伴生了拐卖妇女现象。研究表明,国家的正式社会控制在面对大量的拐卖妇女问题时是无力的,民间的非正式社会控制也是衰弱的。这是因为社会的结构性紧张以及一些存在缺陷的国家制度导致了拐卖妇女这一大规模越轨行为的发生,并制约着社会控制的运作。这一个案说明运动式或执法式的正式社会控制无力消除基于社会的结构性紧张产生出的大规模越轨,面对大量的越轨需要考虑的是调整政策和法律,建构均衡、和谐的社会结构,而不是简单强调对现有政策、法律的实施。