论我国保险资金的运用及对策

保险业作为服务于社会生产和生活的第三产业 ,以组织后备资金形式为国民经济的发展提供风险保障。虽然中国保险业资金运用方面存在着保险资金运用渠道较窄、保险公司资产面临较高利率风险、保险资金运用中短期行为严重等问题 ,在很大程度上与当今中国保险市场发展实践和保险业经营运作趋势不适应 ,但可以通过修改《保险法》 ,提高资金运用收益率以明确资金运用方式、范围 ;通过建立专业化资金运用体系 ,提高专业化经营水平和风险监督机制 ;为保险资金运用拓宽渠道 ,提高资金运用的安全性。     

我国财政赤字和货币供应量联动性的实证模型分析

近期以来国际金融危机的加深,进一步揭示了一国财政赤字与宏观经济之间的深刻关联。进入新世纪以来,我国运用财政赤字的手段和方法不断改进,对于我们应对国际金融市场的动荡、促进内需和经济增长起到了很大作用。但同时,财政赤字与货币发行量之间不可调和的正向关系,也给我国经济体系带来了一定的隐患。因此,通过理论梳理与实证分析来理清赤字规模和货币供应量之间的关系,有助于我们今后宏观经济管理手段和金融市场监管能力的提升。     

金融科技、财务风险与公司治理

以沪深A股上市企业2011—2020年数据为研究样本，运用固定效应模型，研究金融科技与公司治理水平的关系以及财务风险在其中的中介作用。结果表明：金融科技能够显著提高公司治理水平，企业财务风险在两者之间发挥部分中介作用；金融科技对会计信息披露质量优秀企业的治理水平影响最大，对会计信息披露质量不合格企业的治理水平没有显著影响；相对于内部控制存在缺陷的企业，金融科技对内部控制不存在缺陷的企业促进作用更大。为此，政府应对金融科技企业给予足够的政策支持，完善金融监管体系；企业应加大运用金融科技的力度，提高会计信息披露质量，减少企业内部控制缺陷，降低企业财务风险，以提高公司治理水平，促进企业高质量发展。     

我国企业海外撤资的实物期权分析

由于世界经济形势变化、地区政局不稳和企业对国际市场的误判,我国部分对外投资企业亏损严重,面临着从海外撤资的决择。利用实物期权法分析企业退出问题,参照贝尔曼方程,构建撤资决策的实物期权模型,分析对外投资企业撤资决策的价值。算例分析表明,对外投资企业选择的贴现率、利润的波动率和撤资成本的变化均能影响撤资的时机和方式。我国对外投资企业应根据形势变化和自身实力,不断加强自身抵抗风险的能力,灵活选择趁机抢占国外市场的进攻策略,或尽早撤出以获得放弃期权价值的防守策略。     

Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case

In foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.     

A longitudinal analysis of infant and senescent mortality using mixture models

We construct a mixture distribution including infant, exogenous and Gompertzian/non-Gompertzian senescent mortality. Using mortality data from Swedish females 1751–, we show that this outperforms models without these features, and compare its trends in cohort and period mortality over time. We find an almost complete disappearance of exogenous mortality within the last century of period mortality, with cohort mortality approaching the same limits. Both Gompertzian and non-Gompertzian senescent mortality are consistently present, with the estimated balance between them oscillating constantly. While the parameters of the latter appear to be trending over time, the parameters of the former do not.     

“浙商”海外非商业风险及避险机制分析

近年来,随着国际形势不确定因素的增加以及世界经济的不稳定,＂浙商＂海外非行商风险日益凸显,不断遭遇特定行政限制、恐怖袭击、绑架等非商业风险,其海外安全状况令人担忧。因此,提高＂浙商＂安全意识,强化海外风险防范能力,构筑避险机制,既是＂浙商＂自身发展的需要,也是各级政府落实＂以人为本,执政为民＂理念的具体表现。     

The Influence of Intimate Violence on Transitions out of Cohabitation

Does the experience of violence in a cohabiting union lead participants away from marriage and toward separation, or does violence have only minimal impact once other characteristics of unions and their participants are controlled? This issue is examined using a sample of 411 cohabiting couples followed in both waves of the National Survey of Families and Households. Marriage and separation are treated as competing risks. Results show that violence does have an effect, although dissimilar effects emerge for transitions to separation, as opposed to marriage. Net of other factors, intense male violence—male violence that is more severe than the female partner's—raises the hazard of separation. In contrast, female violence, but not male violence, lowers the rate of marriage. The findings appear robust to a variety of operationalizations of partner violence.     

产业集群品牌风险与规避措施探析

集群品牌是集群的共有财富,是集群产品提高竞争力的重要途径。但集群品牌的公共物品属性会造成集群内企业对其维护与发展的投入不足,而且个别企业的投机行为可能会产生"多米诺骨牌"效应,造成"公共地风险",给集群品牌带来破坏。为规避集群品牌风险,需要企业、政府和中介机构等多方面共同努力,通过申请注册集群商标、完善质量认证监督体系、多渠道开展集群品牌营销活动、集体应对贸易摩擦等措施来做好集群品牌的发展与维护工作。     

大中型企业技术创新的实证分析——以山东省为例

山东省大中型企业已具有较强的创新意识和创新能力。但企业在创新费用的使用,技术引进方式的渠道、目标,技术来源等方面还存在一些问题。现阶段,山东省企业技术创新的主要障碍因素依次是企业家决策、资金、人才、科研体制和创新风险。建立有效的企业内部技术创新机制及政府相关配套机制,实施大公司大集团发展战略,支持企业间的兼并、收购、联合和重组,完善中介机构,优化企业技术创新的外部环境,是推动山东省企业技术创新现实的对策选择。