浅析高校负债办学

负债办学是目前高校实现跨越式发展的必由之路。负债在给高校带来快速发展的同时 ,也给高校带来了财务风险。因此 ,高校负债办学既要根据学校的发展规划和对资金的需求 ,适度负债 ,又要加强负债的管理 ,提高资金使用效益     

A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop-out in the UK

Summary.  From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness—both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein—is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons.     

Pseudo Self-Consistent Estimation of a Copula Model with Informative Censoring

Abstract.  We consider the case where a terminal event censors a non-terminal event, but not vice versa. When the events are dependent, estimation of the distribution of the non-terminal event is a competing risks problem, while estimation of the distribution of the terminal event is not. The dependence structure of the event times is formulated with the gamma frailty copula on the upper wedge, with the marginal distributions unspecified. With a consistent estimator of the association parameter, pseudo self-consistency equations are derived and adapted to the semiparametric model. Existence, uniform consistency and weak convergence of the new estimator for the marginal distribution of the non-terminal event is established using theories of empirical processes, U -statistics and Z -estimation. The potential practical utility of the methodology is illustrated with simulated and real data sets.     

The Protective Impact of a Covariate on Competing Failures with an Example from a Bone Marrow Transplantation Study

Starting from an applied Bone Marrow Transplantation(BMT) study, the problem of “unexpected protectivity” in competing risks models is introduced, which occurs when one covariate shows a protective impact not expected from a medical perspective. Current explanations found in the statistical literature suggest that unexpected protectivity might be due to the lack of independence between the competing failures. Actually, in the presence of dependence, the Kaplan-Meier curves are not interpretable. Conversely, the cumulative incidence curves remain interpretable, and therefore seem to be a candidate for solving the problem. We discuss the particular nature of dependence in a competing risks framework and illustrate how this dependence may be created via a common frailty factor. A Monte Carlo experiment is set up which accounts also for the association between the observable covariates and the frailty factor. The aim of the experiment is to understand whether and how the bias showed by the estimates could be related to the omitted frailty variable. The results show that dependence alone does not cause false protectivity, and that the cumulative incidence curves suffer the same bias as the survival curves and therefore do not seem to be a solution to false protectivity. Conversely, false protectivity may occur according to the magnitude and the sign of the dependence between the frailty factor and the covariate. The paper ends with some suggestions for empirical research. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国与哈萨克斯坦双边贸易与区域经济合作的比较优势与风险分析——一项基于地理区位与跨国公共品供给的实证研究

新亚欧大陆桥和中哈石油管道的开通及中哈之间签署的一系列双边和多边协定。为跨国区域经济合作创造了良好的跨国公共产品与跨国俱乐部产品供求基础；地理区位优势和跨国公共产品有效供给是国际贸易和跨国区域经济合作比较优势充分发挥的重要条件和基本前提；双边贸易和跨区域合作中既有比较优势，又面临风险。中国与哈萨克斯坦双边经贸必须充分发挥双方的优势，防止贸易摩擦、贸易不平衡性、贸易波动性、地缘政治和恐怖主义活动带来的风险。     

农业产业化的经营风险与风险控制

与独立的非产业化经营相比,农业产业化经营存在更多、更大的潜在风险.这是由农业产业化经营本身的组织制度安排、契约关系、要素规模、技术水平和对外部环境的依赖等特点决定的.农业产业化经营的风险类型主要包括自然风险、市场风险、资产风险、技术风险和契约风险等.根据农业产业化经营的风险特点及其表现形式,结合农业产业化实践,吸取国外农业风险管理的经验和教训,农业产业化经营风险管理应该是政府、市场、企业、农民自助的多元复合结构管理模式.     

Evaluating the Efficacy of a Mental Models Approach for Improving Occupational Chemical Risk Protection

Chemical risk protection in the workplace relies partly on informing workers about possible risks using material safety data sheets (MSDS). This article reports on phase 2 of a project (phase 1 reported in Cox et al.), which employed a mental models approach to improve on data sheets as communicative interventions for perchloroethylene in dry cleaning and rosin-based solder flux in the electronics industry within small businesses in the United Kingdom (small enterprises (SEs) < 25 employees in the workplace). It focuses on the efficacy of a multimethod evaluation strategy to assess (1) the capacity of a mental models approach to yield contextually relevant data for intervention design and (2) the effectiveness of the strategy itself in validating the mental models data. The evaluation was conducted using postal questionnaires and semi-structured verbal protocols to provide responses to the alternative intervention content and to prioritize risk messages. User discussion groups were then employed, particularly as a means of establishing whether contextual information could be obtained that would differ qualitatively from the kind elicited through individual (semi) structured methods. We conclude that the mental models approach as part of an iterative process including systematic multimethod evaluation is successful in supporting the design of relevant communications to the users of chemicals. The overall viability of communicative interventions in the context of health and safety in small businesses remains in question. Future research might aim to develop a more holistic approach to interventions in complex occupational contexts.     

中国商业银行的现状分析

国有商业银行是我国金融体系的主体，但由于长期受计划经济的影响，国有商业银行远远不能适应市场经济，特别是金融全球化发展趋势的需要。作者针对我国四大国有商业银行在机构设置、业务经营、管理手段以及金融创新等方面存在的问题，提出收缩管理半径，减员增效；实行本币与外币业务经营及管理一体化；强化商业银行市场营销；提高金融电子化水平，开展和完善网上银行业务；加强国有商业银行内部风险控制等有效对策，完善网上银行的运行机制，加强国有商业银行的竞争力。     

论高校贷款办学风险及其防范

高校为了适应高等教育大众化的要求,扩大办学规模,加快发展高等教育事业,同时为了解决资金紧缺而引入贷款机制.文章对贷款所产生的风险进行分析,揭示贷款风险不良后果的主要表现,并在风险防范方面提出了若干建议.