论高校贷款办学风险及其防范

高校为了适应高等教育大众化的要求,扩大办学规模,加快发展高等教育事业,同时为了解决资金紧缺而引入贷款机制.文章对贷款所产生的风险进行分析,揭示贷款风险不良后果的主要表现,并在风险防范方面提出了若干建议.     

"一带一路"背景下中国海外利益在小国的保护研究

在推进“一带一路”中,中国在小国的物质性与非物质性海外利益均面临风险,原因主要有内外两个方面:从内部看,对小国尚存错误认知,人文外交总体规划待完善,也存在着企业或个人的不规范行为;从外部看,“一带一路”沿线小国的脆弱性、对外依赖性及边缘性特征导致中国的海外利益遭受风险。中国应根据海外利益的具体风险状况及遭受风险原因制定措施,从自身出发,纠正对小国的错误认知,建立小国专属投资政策,增强针对小国的避险意识,开展有效宣传以改善中国形象;针对小国特性,提高应对突发事件能力,增强对小国的战略惩戒能力。从而有效保护中国在“一带一路”沿线小国的海外利益,并为沿线小国稳步构建命运共同体服务。     

代耕农——新农村建设中的“租约农民”——以惠州博罗县石湾镇铁场村为例

近年来,随着珠江三角洲地区工业化步伐进程的加快与地区经济差异扩大,发达地区农民将田地以签定合同或达成口头协议的方式租给落后地区农民耕种,出现了“代耕农”群体。由于与传统的租佃关系形成制度背景不同,产生了新型的农业租佃关系。本文分析了新型的农业租佃关系构成,与传统农业租佃关系进行了比较,并进一步对“新农村”建设中“租约”农民的问题提出了一些建议。     

中国转型期的社会安全隐患与对策

中国转型期面临着严重的社会安全隐患,具体表现为多重风险共生、社会自身在保障安全方面具有脆弱性、社会应对风险的思维具有极化倾向。为了走向更加安全的社会,不仅要充分认识社会安全问题的重要性,而且要完善风险管理体系,实施多元化风险管理策略,正确认识国家的作用,高度重视风险教育,积极实践新型发展观。     

Mixtures of Toxic Agents and Attributable Risk Calculations

Calculations of attributable risks have attracted increasing interest recently. However, these efforts have been limited to mostly one agent, radiation, and no interactions with effects of other toxic agents have been taken into account. This paper outlines a generic approach to the calculation of attributable risks for an exposure to several toxic agents and interaction effects associated with them. In this calculation, the partition of interaction terms between the agents responsible is of particular importance. At present, there are no rules on how to assign equitable shares, so one methodology will be proposed and others discussed briefly. For one example of an assignment, the standard errors of the attributable risks are determined in terms of the uncertainties of the input parameters, thus setting the stage for a comparison of the different shares of responsibility.     

Credibility, Information Preferences, and Information Interests

The Seveso Directive of the European Union demands that information be provided to the public by companies and authorities about facts, risks, and behaviors related to hazardous facilities, in particular chemical facilities. On behalf of the Commission of the European Communities, a survey was run in five European countries on the credibility of various information sources. This article describes the results of the German study. 430 persons were interviewed with a questionnaire of 50 items, in particular about their perceptions and evaluations of technical risks, the credibility of sources of information about chemical risks, their preferences for receiving risk information from these sources, and their interests in receiving information. Major findings are great differences in credibility, differentiated information preferences, and strong information interests. Surprisingly, credibility played only a minor role with regard to the respondents'information preferences and interests.     

Nonparametric estimation of discrete hazard functions

A smoothing procedure for discrete time failure data is proposed which allows for the inclusion of covariates. This purely nonparametric method is based on discrete or continuous kernel smoothing techniques that gives a compromise between the data and smoothness. The method may be used as an exploratory tool to uncover the underlying structure or as an alternative to parametric methods when prediction is the primary objective. Confidence intervals are considered and alternative techniques of cross validation based choices of smoothing parameters are investigated.     

中小型钢铁贸易企业的融资问题

随着中小型钢铁贸易企业融资问题的日益突出,与其密切相关的融资风险问题逐步成为业界关注的热点。中小型钢铁贸易企业由于受各种因素影响,面临融资难的困境:中小型钢铁贸易企业融资需求大,上游钢厂的垄断性较高,下游企业议价能力强;中小型钢铁贸易企业融资难,银行授信难度大,多层次资本市场尚未形成,自身管理存在缺陷。融资风险是中小型钢铁贸易企业筹集资金时所面临的一大难题,融资风险产生的原因有很多:从内因上看,融资结构比例失调,融资的时机和方式选择不当,筹集的资金缺乏有效的管理和运用;从外因上看,包括政策性风险和金融市场风险等。对中小型钢铁贸易企业进行融资风险评估后发现:负债规模普遍过高、担保能力不强,中小型钢铁贸易企业实力较弱,抵质押物补偿性偏弱,经营风险大。对于中小型钢铁贸易企业,争取最大程度的融资并且合理控制融资风险,需要做好以下几个方面:针对行业特点制定稳健的金融决策;优化客户结构;认真做好贷前检查;加强中小型钢铁贸易企业的信贷管理。     

多元化选择:业务纵向整合的优势与风险分析

进入21世纪,以信息、资金、技术的跨国界流动为特征的全球化的趋势日益明显。伴随着中国加入WTO,我国市场的对外开放程度逐渐加大,国外企业纷纷进入。在这样一个充满竞争的市场中,没有一个行业可以持续地维持高额利润,也没有哪个企业能够轻易保持持续的竞争优势。这就迫使我国企业要在自己的主营业务稳定增长的基础上积极寻求企业的新的发展空间,多元化经营成为可选择的竞争战略之一。基于对众多国内外案例的研究,本文论述了企业多元化经营过程中业务纵向整合的优势与风险,对于我国企业的多元化决策,有一定的参考价值。     

A proportional hazards model for the analysis of doubly censored competing risks data

ABSTRACT

Competing risks data are common in medical research in which lifetime of individuals can be classified in terms of causes of failure. In survival or reliability studies, it is common that the patients (objects) are subjected to both left censoring and right censoring, which is refereed as double censoring. The analysis of doubly censored competing risks data in presence of covariates is the objective of this study. We propose a proportional hazards model for the analysis of doubly censored competing risks data, using the hazard rate functions of Gray (1988 Gray, R.J. (1988). A class of k-sample tests for comparing the cumulative incidence of a competing risk. Ann. Statist. 16:1141–1154.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), while focusing upon one major cause of failure. We derive estimators for regression parameter vector and cumulative baseline cause specific hazard rate function. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are discussed. A simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators. We illustrate the method using a real life doubly censored competing risks data.