论电话监听的合理性及其限度

电话监听是技术侦查手段的一种。适当运用电话监听,能够提高对抗犯罪的效能。然而,电话监听具有对公民隐私权、言论自由权等权利造成侵害的很大的危险性。因此,既要认识到其合理性,又要对其适用确定必要的限度,并在运用过程中,保障犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的基本人权和诉讼权利。     

校园暴力的成因分析及预防策略探究

校园暴力看似一种个别的、简单的社会现象,其实却具有复杂的社会心理背景,它是家庭结构或功能不健全、学校管理理念落后、教师管教失当、接受大众传媒负面影响、结交不良同伴等相互作用的混合产物.对校园暴力的预防应充分运用政府、社会、学校、家庭等各方面的资源,职责明确、责任到位,形成校园暴力治理的合力,才能为青少年学生全面和谐发展提供良好的条件.     

反向抵押贷款:养老保障新视角

我国正快速步入老龄化社会,养老压力日益突出,传统养老模式已不能满足市场经济条件下人们对养老的需求。作为避免老龄化危机的有效途径,反向抵押贷款在美国取得了巨大的成功。文章分析了在我国实施反向抵押贷款的必要性和可行性,并指出了存在的风险。     

农村土地制度与构建社会保障体系的关系分析

农村土地不具备社会保障功能,但农村土地是构建社会保障体系的基础。不仅如此,在当前和今后很长一段时期内,农村土地和农地制度在构建社会保障体系中的基础地位是不可替代的。因此,在保障土地合理利用的前提下构建社会保障体系,是当前我国农村特定条件下的必然选择。     

社会转型中农民工社会保障问题探析

加快城市化进程首先是加快人口的城市化进程,而人口的城市化首先要解决的是农民工问题.建立农民工社会保障制度是我国社会结构转型的需要,它兼顾了公平与效率,是社会保障制度改革的长期目标,也是构建和谐社会的先决条件.     

关于有效促进社会公正的几个问题

本文认为:(1)为了顺利地推进改革,为了中国社会经济持续、有效和健康的发展,就必须适应新的历史条件,顺应民意、顺应现代社会的基本趋势,把社会公正放到一个突出的位置。(2)在中国现阶段应当开始建立一个初级的社会公平保障体系。初级社会公平保障体系的基本特征是低水准、广覆盖、有实效。对于国家来说,近期需要做的事情可以分为两大块,一是国家的直接投入,二是国家的立法、监督、执行和引导。(3)有一些根深蒂固的观念在妨碍着我们重视社会公正问题。这些观念主要包括:“原始积累不可避免”,“国家财力不足”,“重视公正便会妨碍效率”,因此我们必须对这些观念进行一番必要的反思。(4)要想构建一个公正而和谐的社会,就必须培育一个庞大的中等收入者人群,形成一个“两头小,中间大”的橄榄型的社会结构,那么社会就会变得越来越稳定了。     

中国行政效率的公共选择理论分析

从公共选择理论看来,政府在弥补市场失灵的同时,自身也会产生失灵。但是,中国在从计划经济向市场经济转型过程中,政府行政低效问题主要原因在于自身制度不够完善,如组织的约束机制和组织监控机制的不完善等。主要表现为政府决策达不到帕累托最优、无法评价市场机制与政府干预,何者的作用更大等。因此,必须通过引入竞争机制、进行成本-受益分析和加强监督等措施加以解决。     

中国粮食物流体系现代化建设策略

粮食物流体系是连接粮食生产和消费的重要一环,加快推进其现代化建设将有力保障我国的粮食安全。基于对现阶段中国粮食物流体系的全面调研,详细分析了我国粮食物流体系现代化建设的发展现状、存在问题和面临形势,并提出推进粮食物流体系现代化的策略。第一,提升粮食物流体系建设系统化水平,增强粮食流通能力;第二,加快粮食流通立法和标准化建设工作,打破要素流通制约;第三,提高粮食物流设施建设专业化水平,提升物流体系效能;第四,积极开展粮食物流体系信息化改革,优化资源配置效率;第五,统筹各地并优化资金配置,推进项目整体布局;第六,构建粮食流通“双循环”格局,培育国际化大粮商。     

An analytic method for randomized trials with informative censoring: Part 1

Consider a randomized trial in which time to the occurrence of a particular disease, say pneumocystis pneumonia in an AIDS trial or breast cancer in a mammographic screening trial, is the failure time of primary interest. Suppose that time to disease is subject to informative censoring by the minimum of time to death, loss to and end of follow-up. In such a trial, the censoring time is observed for all study subjects, including failures. In the presence of informative censoring, it is not possible to consistently estimate the effect of treatment on time to disease without imposing additional non-identifiable assumptions. The goals of this paper are to specify two non-identifiable assumptions that allow one to test for and estimate an effect of treatment on time to disease in the presence of informative censoring. In a companion paper (Robins, 1995), we provide consistent and reasonably efficient semiparametric estimators for the treatment effect under these assumptions. In this paper we largely restrict attention to testing. We propose tests that, like standard weighted-log-rank tests, are asymptotically distribution-free -level tests under the null hypothesis of no causal effect of treatment on time to disease whenever the censoring and failure distributions are conditionally independent given treatment arm. However, our tests remain asymptotically distribution-free -level tests in the presence of informative censoring provided either of our assumptions are true. In contrast, a weighted log-rank test will be an -level test in the presence of informative censoring only if (1) one of our two non-identifiable assumptions hold, and (2) the distribution of time to censoring is the same in the two treatment arms. We also extend our methods to studies of the effect of a treatment on the evolution over time of the mean of a repeated measures outcome, such as CD-4 count.     

A Multivariate Model for Repeated Failure Time Measurements

A parametric multivariate failure time distribution is derived from a frailty-type model with a particular frailty distribution. It covers as special cases certain distributions which have been used for multivariate survival data in recent years. Some properties of the distribution are derived: its marginal and conditional distributions lie within the parametric family, and association between the component variates can be positive or, to a limited extent, negative. The simple closed form of the survivor function is useful for right-censored data, as occur commonly in survival analysis, and for calculating uniform residuals. Also featured is the distribution of ratios of paired failure times. The model is applied to data from the literature