基于活动敏感性的动态缓冲监控方法研究

缓冲监控问题对于企业成功应用关键性项目管理,提高项目进度管理绩效和确保项目按时完工,都至关重要。本文针对现有缓冲监控方法在项目进度监控中所存在的忽视内部情况的问题,引入项目进度风险分析方法中的活动敏感性信息。研究了动态环境下活动敏感性指标的计算和监控阀值的设定,在缓冲的黄区监控中集成了考虑活动敏感信息的动态监控过程。在综合考虑缓冲指标和活动关联度指标的监控指标体系,综合设置各指标的监控阀值的基础上,提出了基于活动敏感性信息的关键链动态缓冲监控方法。最后通过一个算例将所提方法与现有方法进行比较,实验结果表明,合理设置活动关联度的监控阀值后,所提方法在总赶工时间、总赶工活动数、超计划完工次数以及监控负荷这四个绩效方面的结果更优。     

On the generalized process capability under simple and mixture models

Process capability (PC) indices measure the ability of a process of interest to meet the desired specifications under certain restrictions. There are a variety of capability indices available in literature for different interest variables such as weights, lengths, thickness, and the life time of items among many others. The goal of this article is to study the generalized capability indices from the Bayesian view point under different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions for the simple and mixture of generalized lifetime models. For our study purposes, we have covered a simple and two component mixture of Maxwell distribution as a special case of the generalized class of models. A comparative discussion of the PC with the mixture models under Laplace and inverse Rayleigh are also included. Bayesian point estimation of maintenance performance of the system is also part of the study (considering the Maxwell failure lifetime model and the repair time model). A real-life example is also included to illustrate the procedural details of the proposed method.     

CRM中客户忠诚对价格敏感性的影响研究

综合考虑了CRM中的客户竞争、客户保持和转移成本因素,建立了基于客户忠诚度的客户关系保持的数学模型。然后以客户保持模型为基础,从理论上分析了不同忠诚度水平的客户的价格敏感性的不同及其原因。最后以客户价格敏感性为基础,得到了可供企业CRM系统借鉴的客户保持的定量策略。     

Route‐Independent Analysis of Available Capacity in Flexible Manufacturing Systems

In a job shop, because of large setup times, each operation is assigned to only one machine. There is no alternative routing. In a flexible manufacturing system, each manufacturing operation can often be performed on several machines. Therefore, with automated equipment, the capacity of a machine to perform certain operations is not independent of the capacity of other machines. Often, however, operations managers can use a route‐independent answer to production planning questions. For example, how much can be produced of a certain part type and when are important capacity questions in business negotiations, when the detailed routing and scheduling are not yet of interest or cannot be known. This paper provides a mathematical model for the route‐independent analysis of the capacity of flexible manufacturing systems based on a concept of operation types. An example is provided both to illustrate the use of operation types and to highlight the differences between the traditional route‐dependent and the proposed route‐independent formulations of capacity constraints. Some computational results are also given. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is developed to analyze the feasibility of production plans when production requirements and machine capacities can change.     

The negative binomial–beta Weibull regression model to predict the cure of prostate cancer

In this article, for the first time, we propose the negative binomial–beta Weibull (BW) regression model for studying the recurrence of prostate cancer and to predict the cure fraction for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated by open radical prostatectomy. The cure model considers that a fraction of the survivors are cured of the disease. The survival function for the population of patients can be modeled by a cure parametric model using the BW distribution. We derive an explicit expansion for the moments of the recurrence time distribution for the uncured individuals. The proposed distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, unimodal and bathtub shaped. Another advantage is that the proposed model includes as special sub-models some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We analyze a real data set for localized prostate cancer patients after open radical prostatectomy.     

Handling of missing data in long‐term clinical trials: a case study

Missing data in clinical trials is a well‐known problem, and the classical statistical methods used can be overly simple. This case study shows how well‐established missing data theory can be applied to efficacy data collected in a long‐term open‐label trial with a discontinuation rate of almost 50%. Satisfaction with treatment in chronically constipated patients was the efficacy measure assessed at baseline and every 3 months postbaseline. The improvement in treatment satisfaction from baseline was originally analyzed with a paired t‐test ignoring missing data and discarding the correlation structure of the longitudinal data. As the original analysis started from missing completely at random assumptions regarding the missing data process, the satisfaction data were re‐examined, and several missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR) techniques resulted in adjusted estimate for the improvement in satisfaction over 12 months. Throughout the different sensitivity analyses, the effect sizes remained significant and clinically relevant. Thus, even for an open‐label trial design, sensitivity analysis, with different assumptions for the nature of dropouts (MAR or MNAR) and with different classes of models (selection, pattern‐mixture, or multiple imputation models), has been found useful and provides evidence towards the robustness of the original analyses; additional sensitivity analyses could be undertaken to further qualify robustness. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pedophiles in the Ultra-Orthodox Haredi Sector in Israel: Thought Processes Regarding their Actions

ABSTRACT

This study explores thought patterns of Jewish Ashkenazi Ultra-Orthodox pedophiles in Israel and how they resolve the contradiction between their commitment to Jewish Law and having committed sexual offenses against minors. Ten adult men participated in this study. Using open semistructured interviews, their cognitive distortions before, during, and after the abuse were examined. Content analysis revealed that participants used cognitive distortions based on their own world of Jewish Law and social-cultural values. The insular nature of Ultra-Orthodox society and its many prohibitions, especially regarding sexuality, tempted offenders to test boundaries. When sexual drive was high, internal control mechanisms were ineffective even in presence of external control mechanisms. Some participants recognized the contradiction between their behaviors and being Ultra-Orthodox Jews, and others did not. Based on the findings, a flow chart was devised describing the cognitive processes of Jewish Ultra-Orthodox pedophiles. Theoretical and practical implications of the results were examined.     

Maternal Sensitivity and Infant Emotional Reactivity

SUMMARY

Although the construct of infant reactivity is thought to be a temperamental dimension, investigators have been interested in the relation between emotional reactivity and maternal behaviors. In this study, infants' emotional reactivity to frustrating stimuli and maternal sensitivity and intrusiveness were observed at 5 and 10 months of age. Cluster analysis of infants' emotional expressions revealed three patterns of expressive behavior emerged at both ages: (1) frequent anger and negative (distress) expressions, (2) intense anger expressions, and (3) frequent happy expressions. Results demonstrated that patterns of emotional reactivity at 5 and 10 months differed by maternal interactive style. In addition, patterns of emotional reactivity at 10 months of age could be predicted by differences in maternal caregiving, and conversely, 5-month infant reactivity was predictive of 10-month maternal behavior. Conclusions are made regarding ways that mothers socialize emotions and the bi-directional nature of mother-infant interactions.     

A Model for Group Work Practice with Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Victims of Domestic Violence: A Qualitative Study

ABSTRACT

The Orthodox Jewish community has only recently acknowledged that religious practice and commitment does not make one immune to suffering from domestic violence. Effective therapeutic techniques for working with battered Orthodox women have only recently begun to emerge.

This article focuses on the use of group work as an effective therapeutic modality for working with abused Orthodox Jewish women. This research highlights the insight, knowledge, and experience of practitioners who facilitate domestic violence groups, focusing on proficiencies and ethnic-sensitive practice strategies that are perceived to lead to successful outcomes.

The application of ethnic-sensitive strategies is discussed to illustrate viable therapeutic considerations for working with this population. Implications and issues for educators and practitioners will be addressed.     

基于混合差分进化算法的联合补货-配送优化模型

本文综合考虑联合补货与配送决策,研究了随机需求、允许缺货环境下多企业多产品联合补货与配送集成优化模型,设计了混合差分进化算法(Hybrid Differential Evolution, HDE)对该模型进行求解,同时通过算例与遗传算法、标准的DE算法进行了比较,证实HDE算法高效且稳定;另外,设计了一个先补货再配送的两阶段优化模型,对比优化结果发现采用供应链协同时补货成本较高,配送成本较低,且总成本较低。最后,对相关参数进行了敏感性分析,发现需求率和库存维持成本的变动对总成本的影响远远大过次要订货成本对总成本的影响。