低渗透储层可动剩余油核磁共振分析

针对有代表性密闭取芯岩芯平行样，分别进行油水饱和度和油水高速离心驱替实验核磁共振分析，定量获得 储层目前剩余油饱和度、采出油相对量、可动油饱和度及驱油效率上限等参数，对比各参数建立储层可动剩余油饱和 度核磁共振分析方法。研究表明，建立岩芯饱和油束缚水状态和水驱油的最佳离心力分别为2.250 MPa 和0.220 MPa， 4 个渗透率级别（>50、[10，50）、[1，10）和<1 mD）储层采出油饱和度分别为23.49%、16.81%、8.70% 和9.99%，可动油 饱和度分别为50.34%、43.76%、29.67% 和22.89%，可动剩余油饱和度分别为26.85%、26.95%、20.97% 和12.90%，由 于储层非均质性影响，大于10 mD 储层采出油明显高于10 mD 以下储层，但大于10 mD 储层可动油饱和度较高，故可 动剩余油饱和度也较高，小于1 mD 的储层可动剩余油明显低于其他储层。     

Timeliness in the Adoptive Placement of Photolisted Children

ABSTRACT

This study uses information from the New York State (NYS) Adoption Photolisting Service, the Blue Books, to determine the characteristics of the hardest-to-place children, factors related to timeliness in the adoptive placement of listed children, and the efficacy of photolisting updates in impacting placement probabilities. The data for this study consist of computerized records on all children photolisted in NYS from 1976 to 1997. Results indicate that children experiencing significant delays in placement are more likely to be male, black, older at first listing, have mild or severe psychological problems or multiple problems requiring total care and to have strong emotional ties to nonadopting adults in their lives. Members of sibling groups listed in the Blue Books are placed more quickly. Even after controlling for time dependency and unobserved heterogeneity, results indicate that updating a photolisting has no significant impact on increasing a child's probability of placement. Implications of study findings for administrative practice are discussed.     

高层管理团队的异质性与企业绩效的实证研究

研究了我国企业所处行业的动态性对高层管理团队异质性与企业绩效关系的影响。采用我国深、沪两市356家上市公司2001~2002年的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,在我国企业中,高层管理团队职业经验异质性、年龄异质性与行业动态性的交互作用在各自对企业绩效的影响中起了负向的调节作用,进而对这种结果进行了具体的分析和讨论,并提出了未来研究的展望。     

Morbidity measures in the presence of recurrent composite endpoints

The analysis of recurrent event data in clinical trials presents a number of difficulties. The statistician is faced with issues of event dependency, composite endpoints, unbalanced follow‐up times and informative dropout. It is not unusual, therefore, for statisticians charged with responsibility for providing reliable and valid analyses to need to derive new methods specific to the clinical indication under investigation. One method is proposed that appears to have possible advantages over those that are often used in the analysis of recurrent event data in clinical trials. Based on an approach that counts periods of time with events instead of single event counts, the proposed method makes an adjustment for patient time on study and incorporates heterogeneity by estimating an individual per‐patient risk of experiencing a morbid event. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that, with use of a real clinical study data, the proposed method consistently outperforms other measures of morbidity. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

绿地系统的肌理、构成与布局

从全局角度出发,将绿地分为两大系统:涉足绿地和退让绿地。并据此提出时序前置、绿量均衡的布局理念,及按氧源风道、自然脉息、生物通道、防灾网络布局的生态景观构架。     

西方新政治经济学研究范式简述

根据新政治经济学与新古典经济学的区别,以新政治经济学的核心要旨———利益不一致作为线索,阐释新政治经济学研究的机理、框架以及工具。总结了新政治经济学的流派观点及代表人物,比较了新政治经济学在研究政治经济现象中的优劣之处,并初步整理了新政治经济学在金融、经济改革等宏观、微观两个层面的研究进展状况。     

Crucial factors determining the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of threeAthalia sawflies feeding on common cruciferous plants

Summary ThreeAthalia sawflies,A. japonica, A. rosae andA. infumata, feeding on cruciferous plants, coexist in Japan. However, it is not known what ecological strategies they use and what environmental factors are crucial to such strategies. I attempted to explain these questions by examining the relationship between the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of threeAthalia sawflies and their habitats in three districts (Lowland, Intermediate and Mountain). The three sawflies have different spatio-temporal distribution patterns, though they usually used common cruciferous plants.A. japonica was abundant in spring and autumn but disappeared during summer in all the districts. In the Lowland, populations ofA. rosae andA. infumata, like that ofA. japonica, crashed in summer. HoweverA. rosae occurred mainly in summer in the Intermediate and Mountain. AlthoughA. infumata occurred in the same seasons asA. rosae in all districts, population levels ofA. infumata were always lower than those ofA. rosae. The crucial factors controlling their population patterns were the availability of host plants and temperature. Population crashes ofA. rosae andA. infumata were due to food depletion, and those ofA. japonica were due to heat stress. On the other hand, their population patterns may be interpreted as phenological synchronization with their original host plants, though they all existed on common cruciferous plants. The three sawflies may have evolved different strategies to escape from unfavorable habitat conditions. Such strategies are speculated to be summer diapause inA. japonica, long distance migration inA. rosae, and local dispersal inA. infumata.     

农村人力资本、空间效应与城乡收入差距

基于2000—2017年的省级面板数据,采用SDM模型来研究异质性农村人力资本对城乡收入差距的空间效应,并进一步分解为直接效应和空间溢出效应进行比较分析。结果表明：（1）我国城乡收入差距存在显著正向空间集聚效应,并且这种空间集聚效应与区域经济发展水平紧密相关;（2）初级、中级、高级农村人力资本的空间集聚效应特征呈现明显空间差异：初级农村人力资本大多数集聚于西部省份,中级农村人力资本大多数集聚于现代农业相对发达的省份,而高级农村人力资本的高集聚区经历了从东北地区向长三角地区的动态转移;（3）中级、高级农村人力资本显著缩小了本地区及邻近地区的城乡收入差距,但中级农村人力资本的作用更大,而初级农村人力资本对城乡收入差距的影响不显著。     

跨文明"异质性"研究--21世纪比较文学研究的一个重要领域

跨文明比较文学研究与传统的影响研究、平行研究相比,研究的关注点发生了根本性的转变,这就是对于“异质性”研究的强调。跨文明比较文学研究这一研究思路的转向具有着重要的理论价值与现实意义:一是能够促进世界文化的多元化发展以及世界文明间的和谐共处;二是能够促进文明间文学的对话与交流,能够促进世界文学乃至文化的繁荣与发展;三是能够促进世界性理论的不断生成。     

Bayesian Analysis of DNA Profiling Data in Forensic Identification Applications

The utilization of DNA evidence in cases of forensic identification has become widespread over the last few years. The strength of this evidence against an individual standing trial is typically presented in court in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) or its reciprocal (the profile match probability). The value of this LR will vary according to the nature of the genetic relationship between the accused and other possible perpetrators of the crime in the population. This paper develops ideas and methods for analysing data and evaluating LRs when the evidence is based on short tandem repeat profiles, with special emphasis placed on a Bayesian approach. These are then applied in the context of a particular quadruplex profiling system used for routine case-work by the UK Forensic Science Service.