影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展动态关系研究——基于省级面板VAR模型

基于2004—2017年中国省级面板数据,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,使用系统GMM估计、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法分析了影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展之间的动态关系.结果表明:影子银行、地方政府债务与金融发展水平三者之间存在动态耦合关系.在地方政府融资能力受到约束的情况下,影子银行为地方政府提供了多元的融资方式,在增加政府融资能力的同时提升了政府债务水平;而地方政府债务需求显著推动了影子银行规模的快速发展.同时,影子银行过度扩张危害了金融市场的健康发展,降低金融发展水平,继而使地方政府的融资渠道受到约束.但金融发展并不能有效约束影子银行规模,原因在于,政府融资需求是影子银行的主要动力,若不能控制地方政府的借贷行为则无法从源头解决问题.监管机构在去杠杆的过程中,应该综合考虑影子银行与地方政府债务、金融发展之间的动态关系,如此才能够实现预期的政策效果.     

清代冕宁司法档案中的“夷兵”及其功能考察

清代冕宁县作为多民族杂居的地区，雍正年间改土归流后，国家治理开始深入基层社会，为了适应当地民族社会管理的特别需要，当地形成了一种特殊的制度——夷兵换班制。“夷兵换班制”是通过招募当地“夷民”到流官衙署中充当“夷兵”，作为地方流官处理涉及少数民族内部事务的辅助人员，保证国家在处理当地少数民族民政、治安、司法等事务时有熟悉当地“夷俗”的衙吏。由于“夷兵”实行定期轮换，所以称为“夷兵换班制”。“夷兵换班制”的核心是“夷兵”，“夷兵”从职能上看，最初是作为地方治安保安人员，但在现实中往往成为流官和夷民之间在民政、治安、司法事务管理中的中介，具有沟通官方与民间信息、促进国家法与民族习惯融合与互动、弥补外来官吏地方民族事务管理能力不足等功能。总之，“夷兵换班制”是清代地方流官衙署在西南地区治理时针对特定地区设置的一种变通制度，这种制度对于国家在少数民族地区基层社会的治理发挥着十分重要的积极作用。     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

社会转型与观念变迁--以“道德缺失”为中心的考察

尽管“道德缺失”是转型期中国一个不容忽视的社会问题，但当代的“道德缺失”现象并非严重到了危机阶段，中国古代也不是“道德天堂”。今天的道德困境可以归因于社会环境的巨大变化。这种问题的解决，需依靠有效的维护机制作为保障。落实到根本，还是要大力发展经济，建设市民社会。     

页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制思考

目前，我国在页岩气开发的环境保护方面存在着大量的法律空白，往往只能参照环境保护法和矿产资源法中的相关规定进行规制，无法有效解决页岩气开发暴露出来的环境问题。页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制，核心目的就是解决当前页岩气开发中的环境风险，促进页岩气开发与环境保护相协调，实现能源开发的可持续发展。在页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制方面，英美两国已经探索出一些经验和制度。积极借鉴国外有益经验，努力改进和完善我国应对页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制，对实现我国页岩气开采的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益三者的统一具有重要的现实意义。     

进化论思潮与唯物史观的传播——近代中国两大思想关系刍议

进化论思想与唯物史观同为近代中国影响广泛的思想。二者的传入时间接近，并且都经历了中国化的过程。随着进化论思想在现代遭到了越来越多的批判和质疑，唯物史观早期传播和发展的历程也经历了重新的审视。文章从近代思想史发展的事实出发，重新厘清两种思想的关系，并具体论证马克思的唯物史观能否从广义上归结为一种进化论的思想，以及进化论思想在中国是否经历了一个向唯物史观转变的历程。     

查尔斯·泰勒的脱嵌理论及其影响

嵌入和脱嵌在泰勒的思想体系中扮演着关键性的角色。在“大脱嵌”之后，现代世俗社会才最终形成。从前现代社会到现代社会的转型涉及到三个不同的方面:自我认同的转型、社会想象的转型和宇宙想象的转型。前现代的“可渗透的自我”深深的嵌入到迷魅的宇宙和社会之中，并通过这种嵌入而获得对自身身份的认同。随着大脱嵌的到来，自我脱嵌于旧有的宇宙与社会，对自身、社会和宇宙的想象模式都发生了根本性的变化。大脱嵌不但带来了自我认同的转型，同时也带来了社会想象和宇宙想象的转型。因此，追溯大脱嵌的最初的源头也就具有了重要的意义。其实，早在轴心时期的宗教中就已经隐含了脱嵌的源头，个体性的自我已经初具雏形。     

Maternal and paternal reactions to child sadness predict children's psychosocial outcomes: A family‐centered approach

Parents' reactions to children's emotions shape their psychosocial outcomes. Extant research on emotion socialization primarily uses variable‐centered approaches. This study explores family patterns of maternal and paternal responses to children's sadness in relation to psychosocial outcomes in middle childhood. Fifty‐one families with 8‐ to 12‐year‐old children participated. Mothers and fathers reported their reactions to children's sadness and children's social competence and psychological adjustment. Cluster analyses revealed three family patterns: Supportive (high supportive and low non‐supportive reactions from both parents), Not Supportive (low supportive reactions from both parents), and Father Dominant (high paternal supportive and non‐supportive reactions, low maternal supportive and non‐supportive reactions). Supportive families had children with higher social competence and more internalizing symptoms whereas Father Dominant families had children with lower social competence and fewer internalizing symptoms. Not Supportive families had children with average social competence and fewer internalizing symptoms. Findings are discussed in relation to the “divergence model” which proposes that a diverse range of parental responses to children's sadness, rather than a uniformly supportive approach, may facilitate children's psychosocial adjustment.     

Homosexual Discretion and Good Taste: Two Rules That Govern Homosexual Sociability Space in Santiago de Chile

Homosexual sociability space in Santiago is not socially homogenous. Beyond non-heterosexual identities segmentation (gay, lesbian, queer, BDSM, etc.), the present article proposes a reflection observing certain social distinctions or differences that come into play to create a hierarchy among gay and lesbian individuals within that space. Using a qualitative approximation, we analyze the discourse of homosexual men and women about ways to display homosexuality in different places in the city, as well as some sociability practices used in homosexual venues. The resulting social hierarchy is understood through two central subjective rules: discretion and good taste, dynamic mechanisms that perpetuate the distance among groups within the same sociability space, and to some extent reproduce the city’s class structure. Given that material means to privatize and sophisticate homosexual expression are unequally distributed in Santiago, the resulting differentiated social networks end up configuring the visibility strategies of homosexual identity played out in the city in the last years.     

Overcoming Old in Age-Friendliness

In this article, we explore views on an age-friendly space in the Netherlands by analysing the responses of older individuals (N = 54) in focus groups and by examining the perspectives around an age-friendly zone in the Netherlands, Parkstad Limburg. We found that a central issue in the wishes for living at a later age are adjustments to envisioned physical limitations that come with the ageing process; this includes adjustments to ensure safety, accessibility and mobility, in order to facilitate older individuals' efforts to stay engaged with the world around them. In their wishes, the older participants constructed ideal dwelling places that closely resembled a senior home, but at the same time they rejected wishing to live in a place that was identified as a senior home. We explain this paradox by the representation of such a space as being for old people, i.e. needy older individuals, which was not how the older participants wished to be identified. We conclude that the conception of age-friendly environments will have to face the difficult challenge of overcoming the association with old age, while simultaneously taking into account adjustments that signify and relate to the ageing process and that seem inescapably tied to oldness.