Statistical modeling of selected aspects of the childbearing process with application to world fertility survey countries∗

The childbearing process should be monitored in developing countries experiencing high population growth rates and high levels of maternal and infant mortality. A mathematical model for estimation of certain aspects of the childbearing process, which requires only data on age‐specific fertility rates, is developed. Synthetic maternal childbearing indices, namely, mean ages at first and last birth, length of reproductive life span, inter‐birth spacing, and proportion of childless women, in addition to the well‐known mean age at childbearing, for the WFS countries are obtained using the proposed model. The indices are free from age truncation effects, and, under certain assumptions, provide information about a cohort's completed fertility before the women stop reproducing. The effects of women's residence and education on fertility are also examined.     

A model of the age patterns of births by parity in natural fertility populations

This research develops a convolution model to express the age patterns of fertility at each birth order in natural fertility populations in terms of six parameters, directly representing the proximate determinants of fertility, and a series of parity level indicators. The parity level indicators at each birth order are simply the proportions of women in a cohort who will eventually have births at each birth order it the age‐related fecundity decline is controlled. The Coale‐McNeil nuptiality model is adopted to represent the age pattern of first marriage rates and the natural fertility schedule employed in the Coale‐Trussell fertility model is incorporated to adjust age effects. The fast Fourier transform is used in solving the model numerically. It proves that the model is able to provide excellent fits to fertility for rural Chinese women in the 1950s.     

Microbiota and Dose Response: Evolving Paradigm of Health Triangle

SRA Dose‐Response and Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Groups jointly sponsored symposia that addressed the intersections between the “microbiome revolution” and dose response. Invited speakers presented on innovations and advances in gut and nasal microbiota (normal microbial communities) in the first decade after the Human Microbiome Project began. The microbiota and their metabolites are now known to influence health and disease directly and indirectly, through modulation of innate and adaptive immune systems and barrier function. Disruption of healthy microbiota is often associated with changes in abundance and diversity of core microbial species (dysbiosis), caused by stressors including antibiotics, chemotherapy, and disease. Nucleic‐acid‐based metagenomic methods demonstrated that the dysbiotic host microbiota no longer provide normal colonization resistance to pathogens, a critical component of innate immunity of the superorganism. Diverse pathogens, probiotics, and prebiotics were considered in human and animal models (in vivo and in vitro ). Discussion included approaches for design of future microbial dose–response studies to account for the presence of the indigenous microbiota that provide normal colonization resistance , and the absence of the protective microbiota in dysbiosis. As NextGen risk analysis methodology advances with the “microbiome revolution,” a proposed new framework, the Health Triangle, may replace the old paradigm based on the Disease Triangle (focused on host, pathogen, and environment) and germophobia. Collaborative experimental designs are needed for testing hypotheses about causality in dose–response relationships for pathogens present in our environments that clearly compete in complex ecosystems with thousands of bacterial species dominating the healthy superorganism.     

论合同解除权的取得

合同解除权取得的研究可以从期待权和既得权两个层面展开。期待解除权的取得源于合同预期利益的未能实现,其本质为双方主体利益交换的结果。既得解除权的取得,一般只需要满足一定条件;但在主体强弱势对比显著的合同中,为了保护弱势一方的利益,既得解除权的取得除需满足一般条件外,还须满足一定的特殊条件。     

元认知:理论质疑与界说

元认知作为一种对认知的认知,提出之初便遭到质疑:主体与客体界限不清,认知与元认知起始不明。本文对广义与狭义、一般与特殊和不同概念范畴中的元认知进行了理论界定,并对元认知与认知、意识、心理理论、智力和执行功能等概念间的关系进行了分析。元认知的提出对于心理学研究本身和教育实践均具有重要意义。     

冲突与限制——论普遍管辖与豁免

普遍管辖确立了国际社会各国对国际罪行的管辖权,其主要目的是为了防止犯有国际罪行的个人被免于处罚。但作为国际习惯法原则的豁免形成对普遍管辖的限制。国际法院2002年"刚果诉比利时逮捕令案"表明国际社会对普遍管辖权的行使不能超过国际社会主权平等的基本结构,否则可能会造成普遍管辖的"越位"。但豁免并未否定普遍管辖本身,国际法院亦在该案中指出了外交之豁免权不构成对其普遍追诉的四种情况。因此,普遍管辖制度仍需进一步发展。     

我国企业资产证券化中破产隔离与真实销售研究

在证监会主导下，券商以专项资产管理计划为载体进行企业资产证券化试点。专项资产管理计划应用于资产证券化有其合理性和易操作性，但是由于其不具备法律主体资格，难以完全实现基础资产的真实销售，券商破产会直接影响专项计划的持续运作，导致破产隔离不彻底。为了长期发展企业资产证券化，需要在交易中引入信托概念，赋予受益凭证明确的法律性质，突破目前法律和体制的羁绊通过建立基础资产选择标准、限制券商角色范围等措施，规范企业资产证券化各个交易环节。     

罪刑法定原则下刑法调控范围的特点与趋向

罪刑法定原则是人类理性觉醒和犯罪观、刑法观转变的成果;罪刑法定的制度化、法律化使刑法的调控呈现出制刑权专属性、刑法谦抑性、罪刑规范的明确性、刑法规范体系的不周延性、刑法调控范围由开放走向封闭等特点;罪刑法定原则使刑法的宽容程度提高,其人道性增强,但要防止刑罚不足现象的出现。     

基于免疫量子粒子群优化的属性约简

受生物免疫系统启发,把疫苗提取和疫苗接种思想应用到量子粒子群算法,提出了免疫量子粒子群算法。免疫接种可以指导粒子朝着更优方向进化,提高了量子粒子群的收敛速度和寻优能力。分别采用Hu算法、粒子群算法、量子粒子群、免疫量子粒子群多种算法应用于粗糙集属性约简。实验结果表明,基于免疫量子粒子群优化的约简算法在收敛速度和寻优能力都取得了更好的效果。     

传统知识权的法律界定

基于对传统知识权界定现状、传统知识权法律关系、传统知识权的本质属性及其与其他权利的关系的综合研究;提出传统知识权作为社会权范畴中的一种具体权利,应当是指在生产生活实践中创造、发展、保存、传承传统知识的传统社群就该种传统知识所享有的精神权利和财产权利的总称。