高校教学秘书参与教学管理的角色研究综述——基于CNKI的计量统计分析

教学秘书是高校教学管理的基层参与者,在深化教学改革的进程中,教学秘书角色愈显重要。以计量学方法分析CNKI近十五年来教学秘书相关研究文献,了解到教学秘书参与教学管理的角色研究热度不高且近年呈逐年下降趋势;研究文献分布广泛但不均匀,集中于少数期刊,而且质量不佳;研究作者中存在高产群体,但核心群体还未形成;研究主题内容丰富,以教学管理为核心,探讨了教学秘书的角色作用、工作职责、素质能力要求,以及教学秘书队伍中存在的问题与如何加强队伍建设等方面,但研究深度不够。证明了教学秘书群体在教学管理工作中不可或缺却又不受重视的角色困境。     

Prediction intervals for future Weibull residual data

In reliability theory, risk analysis, renewal processes and actuarial studies, the residual lifetimes data play an important essential role in studying the conditional tail of the lifetime data. In this paper, based on some observed ordered residual Weibull data, we introduce different prediction methods for obtaining prediction intervals (PIs) of future residual lifetimes including likelihood, Wald, moments, parametric bootstrap, and highest conditional methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the so obtained PIs and one data analysis is performed for illustration purposes.     

Hazard rate ordering of the second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR samples

In this paper, we compare the hazard rate functions of the second-order statistics arising from two sets of independent multiple-outlier proportional hazard rates (PHR) samples. It is proved that the submajorization order between the sample size vectors together with the supermajorization order between the hazard rate vectors imply the hazard rate ordering between the corresponding second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR random variables. The results established here provide theoretical guidance both for the winner's price for the bid in the second-price reverse auction in auction theory and fail-safe system design in reliability. Some numerical examples are also provided for illustration.     

The precision of regression-type estimator for incremental cost–effectiveness ratio

The estimation of incremental cost–effectiveness ratio (ICER) has received increasing attention recently. It is expressed in terms of the ratio of the change in costs of a therapeutic intervention to the change in the effects of the intervention. Despite the intuitive interpretation of ICER as an additional cost per additional benefit unit, it is a challenge to estimate the distribution of a ratio of two stochastically dependent distributions. A vast literature regarding the statistical methods of ICER has developed in the past two decades, but none of these methods provide an unbiased estimator. Here, to obtain the unbiased estimator of the cost–effectiveness ratio (CER), the zero intercept of the bivariate normal regression is assumed. In equal sample sizes, the Iman–Conover algorithm is applied to construct the desired variance–covariance matrix of two random bivariate samples, and the estimation then follows the same approach as CER to obtain the unbiased estimator of ICER. The bootstrapping method with the Iman–Conover algorithm is employed for unequal sample sizes. Simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the proposed method. The regression-type estimator performs overwhelmingly better than the sample mean estimator in terms of mean squared error in all cases.     

Testing dominance of biometric functions

The hazard rate (HR) and mean residual lifetime are two of the most practical and best-known functions in biometry, reliability, statistics and life testing. Recently, the reversed HR function is found to have interesting properties useful in additional areas such as censored data and forensic science. For these three biometric functions, we propose testing methods that they take on a known functional form against that they dominate or are dominated by this known form. This goodness-of-fit-type testing is wider in applications and more interesting than the long-standing testing procedures for exponentiality against the monotonicity of these functions or even the change point problems. This is so since we can test against any choice of the survival distribution and not just exponentiality. For this general testing, we present easy to implement tests and generalize them into classes of statistics that could lead to more powerful and efficient testing.     

Testing hypotheses for the growth curve model when the data are incomplete

Kleinbaum (1973) developed a generalized growth curve model for analyzing incomplete longitudinal data. In this paper the small sample properties of several related test statistics are investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. The covariance matrix is estimated by each of three non-iterative methods. The null and non-null distributions of these test statistics are examined.     

统计显著性:一个被误读的P值——基于美国统计学会的声明

美国统计学会"关于统计显著性与P值"的官方声明发布之后,再次引发国内外研究学者对P值的广泛关注。在介绍国内统计教材中假设检验的基本内容和步骤的基础上,以"硬币投掷"与"背影识人"为例直观性解释P值、统计显著性与统计功效等相关概念,并引用心理学统计经典调查案例分析P值被误读的原因。同时,基于美国统计学会的声明,给出正确使用P值的建议。     

Confidence distributions applied to propagating uncertainty to inference based on estimating the local false discovery rate: A fiducial continuum from confidence sets to empirical Bayes set estimates as the number of comparisons increases

Empirical Bayes estimates of the local false discovery rate can reflect uncertainty about the estimated prior by supplementing their Bayesian posterior probabilities with confidence levels as posterior probabilities. This use of coherent fiducial inference with hierarchical models generates set estimators that propagate uncertainty to varying degrees. Some of the set estimates approach estimates from plug-in empirical Bayes methods for high numbers of comparisons and can come close to the usual confidence sets given a sufficiently low number of comparisons.     

On Pitman's measure of closeness of k-records

Pitman closeness of both the upper and lower k-record statistics to the population quantiles of a location–scale family of distributions is studied. For the population median, the Pitman-closest k-record is also determined. In the case of symmetric distributions, the Pitman closeness probabilities of k-record statistics are shown to be distribution-free, and explicit expressions are also derived for these probabilities. Exact expressions are derived for the required probabilities for uniform and exponential distributions. Numerical results are given for these families and also the Pitman-closest k-record is determined.