Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

买卖合同中的风险转移制度研究

在买卖合同中,风险应被限定为标的物因法定免责事由毁损、灭失的不利状态.由于各种风险的存在,风险转移制度显得尤为重要,它直接关系到当事人最根本的利益,因此是买卖合同中最重要的问题.各国对风险转移制度的规定是不同的,主要有合同订立主义、所有人主义及交付主义三种形式.我国买卖合同的风险转移制度采纳交付主义为一般原则,兼采特别法原则.     

深圳证券交易所不同指数收益率的波动比较

股票价格指数的波动的大小通常代表了它的风险程度,研究股指的波动对风险管理、投资组合以及价格预测有着十分重要的意义。文章采用时间序列分析方法,对深圳证券交易所的三种价格指数建立GARCH模型,并对这三种指数的波动率进行比较。     

Statistics for weighing benefits and harms in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized cancer prevention trial

Summary.  When evaluating potential interventions for cancer prevention, it is necessary to compare benefits and harms. With new study designs, new statistical approaches may be needed to facilitate this comparison. A case in point arose in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized trial of tamoxifen versus placebo in asymptomatic women who were at high risk for breast cancer. Although the randomized trial showed that tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk of breast cancer, the harms from tamoxifen were serious and some were life threaten-ing. In hopes of finding a subset of women with inherited risk genes who derive greater bene-fits from tamoxifen, we proposed a nested case–control study to test some trial subjects for various genes and new statistical methods to extrapolate benefits and harms to the general population. An important design question is whether or not the study should target common low penetrance genes. Our calculations show that useful results are only likely with rare high penetrance genes.     

电力市场理论的若干基本概念辨析

本文通过对电力市场、电价与电力交易模式等电力经济基础概念的分析,指出了现有概念体系的不足,并提出了作者的认识,尤其是对电力市场一般与市场特殊作出详尽分析,力图为构建竞争性的电力市场经济理论奠定微观概念的基础。     

基于价格的消费者信息搜寻过程研究

消费者在购买商品之前,信息搜集是一个必不可少的阶段。消费者的信息搜集过程是比较复杂的。文章通过构建信息搜寻模型,并对影响信息搜集的因素进行分析,认为产品的价格是影响信息搜集量及其持续时间的主要因素,即消费者在购买高价商品时花费的时间远远大于购买低价商品所花费的时间,并用实例进行验证。     

商业银行贷款风险及其防范

商业银行贷款风险是客观存在的一种经济现象。我国商业银行的不良贷款比率居高不下,状况令人堪忧。它严重影响了商业银行的经营,使其在日益激烈的竞争中处于不利的地位。商业银行为适应新协议的标准和日益激烈的竞争,必须加强贷款管理防范贷款风险。本文在商业银行贷款业务的基础上分析商业银行贷款风险形成的原因,提出商业银行贷款风险的防范对策。     

防范和化解地方政府债务风险研究

针对目前中国在防范与解决地方政府债务风险、完善社会保障体系、缓解现实债务压力和潜在财政风险、缓解其与社会经济稳定之间的矛盾中存在的问题,提出了防范和化解地方政府债务风险的建议,从而建立一套科学的防范政府债务风险的机制,强化地方财政风险预警体系,实行政府债务报告制度,确保政府债务始终处于安全线之内。     

我国货币长期中性的实证研究

通过运用动态相关系数和格兰杰因果检验的计量经济学方法，对我国的货币供应量与经济增长、物价变动的相互关系进行研究。通过实证检验发现，我国货币长期内呈现中性，货币供应量的长期变动最终导致物价的同幅度增长，并且根据检验结果提出了相应的政策建议。     

科技风险初探

在高风险的现代性社会中，科技风险正在成为社会发展的最大风险源。科技风险以其明显不同于传统风险的特征使其在范围、幅度和深度上以整体性、复合性和深远性从根本上影响到整个人类生存和发展。科技风险的来源主要有科技知识不确定性所带来的风险，科技应用延缓效应所带来的风险，科技伦理失范所带来的风险，科技与其他社会因素交互作用所带来的风险，科学家对科技活动功利性追求的带来的风险。要消减、规避科技风险就要提高社会对科技风险的认知意识，明确并落实政府的职责，规范强化科技伦理，吸纳公众有序参与到科学决策和科学后果的评价中来，全球协同共同治理科技风险。