Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

公益林补偿政策评价研究

论述了公益林补偿政策评价研究的现状,分析了补偿政策评价的特点和存在问题,提出了解决问题的对策,并借鉴了美国联邦政府项目评价体系,提出了补偿政策的定性评价内容。     

旅游市场开发中的旅游地评估研究

规范的旅游市场开发必须以明确的旅游地评估为前提。针对当前旅游开发热潮中的旅游地使用权益问题 ,本文就旅游地评估的实质、现实必要性、评估原则及评估方法等问题提出了看法 ,并以湖北省保康县野花谷为例进行评估     

Professional Perspectives on Decision Making about the Long-term Care of Older People

With the increasing pressure on social and health care resources,professionals have to be more explicit in their decision makingregarding the long-term care of older people. This groundedtheory study used 19 focus groups and nine semi-structured interviews(99 staff in total) to explore professional perspectives onthis decision making. Focus group participants and intervieweescomprised care managers, social workers, consultant geriatricians,general medical practitioners, community nurses, home care managers,occupational therapists and hospital discharge support staff.The emerging themes spanned context, clients, families and services.Decisions were often prompted by a crisis, hindering professionalsseeking to make a measured assessment. Fear of burglary andassault, and the willingness and availability of family to helpwere major factors in decisions about living at home. Serviceavailability in terms of public funding for community care,the availability of home care workers and workload pressureson primary care services influenced decision ‘thresholds’regarding admission to institutional care. Assessment toolsdesigned to assist decision making about the long-term careof older people need to take into account the critical aspectsof individual fears and motivation, family support and the availabilityof publicly funded services as well as functional and medicalneeds.     

中国古代人才测评思想初探

我国古代在长期的人才选拔实践中积累了丰富的经验,也形成了相关的理论和方法.中国古代人才测评思想包括人才的重要性、难知性、可测性和人才素质构成的多维性思想,人才测评的主要方法包括分类比较法、实践鉴别法、自然观察法、民意调查法、绩效考察法、实验试探法等,人才测评的主要技术有口试、面试、纸笔测试和作业测试等.     

现代人才测评技术及其应用

人才测评是现代人力资源管理的基础内容,其主要技术有:心理测验、面试和评价中心技术等。通过对人才测评技术的理论基础、特征及发展历程的概述,重点分析了人才测评技术在应用中的特点。     

基于多模态学术英语口语语料库的中国理工科大学生单词重音位移研究

基于自建多模态学术英语口语语料库对中国理工科大学生单词重音位移进行研究,分析了主要单词重音位移、主要单词重音位移分布、不同年级不同性别学生之间重音位移标准频数以及是否具有显著性差异。研究表明,单词重音位移主要发生在多音节词发音中,并且单词重音位移至第二音节的频次最多。从不同年级、不同性别学生之间的对比分析来看,一年级学生重音位移标准频数多于二年级学生,女生重音位移标准频数多于男生,但不同年级、不同性别学生之间重音位移均不具有显著性差异。在总结研究结果的基础上提出教学和学习建议。     

An Interdisciplinary Perspective on Disasters and Stress: The Promise of an Ecological Framework

This integrative literature review examines the sources of the persistent debate over the influence of disasters on individual mental health that characterizes the disaster research literature. Using an interdisciplinary approach, this paper highlights how the connections between individuals and the systems in which they are embedded influence people's varied responses to disaster. Consistent with the emerging emphasis in the social sciences on contextualizing individual behavior, this paper examines how family, community, social structural, cultural, and environmental factors affect the development of stress in disaster populations. It concludes with recommendations for policy, practice, and research related to disaster recovery.     

The design of organizations and the right to act

Recent innovations in the structure of formal organizations suggest possible directions for the design of schools to bring about high achievement. The structure of output-driven in contrast to administratively-driven schools is described, and designs are described which address both the goal of high achievement and the goal of reduced inequality.An earlier version of this paper was presented as the author's Sorokin Lecture at the annual meeting of the Eastern Sociological Society, Boston, March 1993.     

Dietary and Inhalation Intake of Lead and Estimation of Blood Lead Levels in Adults and Children in Kanpur, India

This research was initiated to study lead levels in various food items in the city of Kanpur, India, to assess the dietary intake of lead and to estimate blood lead (PbB) levels, a biomarker of lead toxicity. For this purpose, sampling of food products, laboratory analysis, and computational exercises were undertaken. Specifically, six food groups (leafy vegetables, nonleafy vegetables, fruits, pulses, cereals, and milk), drinking water, and lead air concentration were considered for estimating lead intake. Results indicated highest lead content in leafy vegetables followed by pulses. Fruits showed low lead content and drinking water lead levels were always within tolerable limits. It was estimated that average daily lead intake through diet was about 114 microg/day for adults and 50 microg/day in children; tolerable limit is 250 microg/day for adults and 90 microg/day for children. The estimated lead intakes were translated into the resultant PbB concentrations for children and adults using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Monte Carlo simulation of PbB level variations for adults showed that probability of exceeding the tolerable limit of PbB (i.e.,10 microg/dL) was 0.062 for the pre-unleaded and 0.000328 for the post-unleaded gasoline period. The probability of exceeding tolerable limits in PbB level was reduced by a factor of 189 in the post-unleaded scenario. The study also suggested that in spite of the introduction of unleaded gasoline, children continue to be at a high risk (probability of exceeding 10 microg/dL = 0.39) because of a high intake of lead per unit body weight.