上市公司债务重组财务效应研究

债务重组是很多企业在生产经营活动中遇到的重大问题,债务重组的结果如何,会对企业产生重大影响。在分析了中国深圳和上海证券交易所的上市公司的债务重组的相关数据之后,得出了债务重组能够显著改善企业业绩的相关结论,提出了要加强对债务重组信息披露等相关建议。     

关于高校思想政治理论课改革实践教学的思考

实践教学是高校思想政治理论课教学改革的重要环节,是提高思想政治理论课教学效果的重要途径。要使实践教学活动能够有效开展,必须建立实践教学保障机制,实现实践教学制度化、规范化,提高教师的教学能力和素质,完善实践教学考核方法,充分调动学生参与实践教学的积极性。     

校园文化对高校德育实效的促进作用及其实现措施研究

本文从研究校园文化与德育的关系入手,重点分析了校园文化的教化、导向和辐射作用对德育实效的促进,结合当前高校校园文化对德育的影响,提出应采取多方面措施推动校园文化建设,提高高校德育实效。     

An approximate dual-self model and paradoxes of choice under risk

We derive a simplified version of the model of Fudenberg and Levine, 2006, Fudenberg and Levine, 2011 and show how this approximate model is useful in explaining choice under risk. We show that in the simple case of three outcomes, the model can generate indifference curves that “fan out” in the Marschak–Machina triangle, and thus can explain the well-known Allais and common ratio paradoxes that models such as prospect theory and regret theory are designed to capture. At the same time, our model is consistent with modern macroeconomic theory and evidence and generates predictions across a much wider set of domains than these models.     

传统民居色彩研究

针对传统民居色彩进行专项研究,试图通过一新的层面,即以民居色彩为一个整体效应来分析其形成因素和特征.依托四季色彩理论、色彩学、色彩地理学等相关学科,提出了色彩群理念,辨析了色彩群的内涵以及外延;并以不同的观察状态分析不同地域传统民居色彩群的特质.     

Back to basics: explaining sample size in outcome trials,are statisticians doing a thorough job?

Time to event outcome trials in clinical research are typically large, expensive and high‐profile affairs. Such trials are commonplace in oncology and cardiovascular therapeutic areas but are also seen in other areas such as respiratory in indications like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Their progress is closely monitored and results are often eagerly awaited. Once available, the top line result is often big news, at least within the therapeutic area in which it was conducted, and the data are subsequently fully scrutinized in a series of high‐profile publications. In such circumstances, the statistician has a vital role to play in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of the trial. In particular, in drug development it is incumbent on the statistician to ensure at the outset that the sizing of the trial is fully appreciated by their medical, and other non‐statistical, drug development team colleagues and that the risk of delivering a statistically significant but clinically unpersuasive result is minimized. The statistician also has a key role in advising the team when, early in the life of an outcomes trial, a lower than anticipated event rate appears to be emerging. This paper highlights some of the important features relating to outcome trial sample sizing and makes a number of simple recommendations aimed at ensuring a better, common understanding of the interplay between sample size and power and the final result required to provide a statistically positive and clinically persuasive outcome. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODELING THE LIFETIME OF LONGITUDINAL ELEMENTS

In the study of the stochastic behaviour of the lifetime of an element as a function of its length, it is often observed that the failure time (or lifetime) decreases as the length increases. In probabilistic terms, such an idea can be expressed as follows. Let T be the lifetime of a specimen of length x, so the survival function, which denotes the probability that an element of length x survives till time t, will be given by S_T (t, x) = P(T > t/α(x), where α(x) is a monotonically decreasing function. In particular, it is often assumed that T has a Weibull distribution. In this paper, we propose a generalization of this Weibull model by assuming that the distribution of T is Generalized gamma (GG). Since the GG model contains the Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal models as special and limiting cases, a GG regression model is an appropriate tool for describing the size effect on the lifetime and for selecting among the embedded models. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained for the GG regression model with α(x) = cx^b . As a special case this provide an alternative to the usual approach to estimation for the GG distribution which involves reparametrization. Related parametric inference issues are addressed and illustrated using two experimental data sets. Some discussion of censored data is also provided.     

Performance of traditional f tests in repeated measures designs under covariance heterogeneity

This study investigates the performance of two traditional F tests, one for main effects and the other for interaction in repeated measures designs under several conditions of covariance heterogeneity. Overall, the test for interaction is more vulnerable than the one for main effects. Distortion in the level of significance is less serious for the case of equal group size.     

婚姻状态对老年人死亡概率的影响研究--基于CLHLS队列数据的实证分析

文章基于 CLHLS 队列数据，运用统计分析及经验论证，解析出婚姻状态影响老年人死亡概率的作用机理，即在婚状态以其“保护效应”减小老年人患病的机率，进而减小其死亡概率；相反，不在婚状态的“损害效应”会增加老年人患病的机率，进而增加其死亡的概率。在所得结论基础上，为促进老年健康和应对养老挑战，针对老年人婚姻问题提出了相关政策建议。