不确定性与房地产税额确定组合优化

房地产税额确定的准确性主要取决于两个方面:房地产估价和税率。目前房地产估价有三大基本方法,即市场比较法、成本法和收益法。除此之外还有一些其他方法,如假设开发法、路线价法、长期趋势法等,然而不管哪一种方法由于受到各种主观和客观因素的影响,其估价值都存在着误差。为了减少这种误差,本文构建了一种房地产组合估价优化方法,它能够有效降低房地产在估价中存在的不确定性,从而减少税额误差。     

民主与信任——从"美国银行案"看新农村建设的制度保障

本文通过美国宪政史上的一个经典案例--"美国银行案",探讨"信任"的制度基础及其对中国的借鉴意义.最近,中央提出建设"新农村"的设想并取消了延续2600年之久的农业税,减轻了农民的税费负担.虽然中央的农村政策是令人鼓舞的,但是政策转变需要稳定的制度保障."美国银行案"的逻辑表明,地方税费应该由地方选民自己决定,中央不应越俎代庖.事实上,只有在农民真正获得民主自治的宪法权利之后,他们才能"信任"中央和地方政府的政策将反映和尊重他们的基本利益.     

环境污染税的博弈论分析

征收环境污染税是为治理环境污染而筹集资金,利用税收杠杆来促进生态环境的良性循环。通过构建企业进入博弈模型和政府税率与企业产量博弈的完全信息动态博弈模型,导出政府、企业双方局中人在开征环境污染税后所达到的子博弈完美纳什均衡,可分析我国开征环境污染税的可行性以及所能达到的效果,从而为环境污染税的开征提供理论依据。     

Non-parametric bootstrap recycling

The double bootstrap provides diagnostics for bootstrap calculations and, if need be, appropriate adjustments. The amount of computation involved is usually considerable, and recycling provides a less computer intensive alternative. Recycling consists of using repeatedly the same samples drawn from a recycling distribution G for estimation under each first-level bootstrap distribution, rather than independently repeating the simulation and estimation steps for each of these.Recycling is successful in parametric applications of the bootstrap, as demonstrated by M.A. Newton and C.J. Geyer (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 89: 905–912, 1994). We show that it is bound to fail in non-parametric bootstrap applications, and suggest a modification that makes the method work. The modification consists of smoothing the first-level bootstrap distributions, with the desired consequence that this removes the zero probabilities in the multinomial distributions that define them. We also discuss efficient choices of recycling distributions, both in terms of estimator efficiency and simulation efficiency.     

跨国公司转移价格的影响与防范

随着中国加入WTO及全球经济一体化的不断深入,将有越来越多的跨国公司来中国进行投资,跨国公司在华的投资活动,既能促进中国经济的发展,也对中国经济有着消极影响,尤其是跨国公司在华投资中普遍使用转移价格,将使这一问题更加严重。从跨国公司利用转移价格的目的入手,分析了转移价格对我国国家税收、国际收支及中方投资者利益等的不良影响,指出对跨国公司在华投资活动应施以积极的管理和有效的防范,如完善税法,强化税务、海关的监管力度等。     

农村税改方案的缺陷分析

农村税费改革是在过去问题积累多年、积累较深和当前农业结构调整缓慢、农民增收乏力的情况下进行的,问题复杂,农村税费改革方案本身也存在一些有待解决的问题,因此,实施中不可避免地遇到一些难点和问题,如配套措施不同步、实施方案一刀切、税收负担不公平、税费征管不规范、基层组织运转难。对此必须认真总结经验,积极探讨对策,完善试点方案,确保取得成功。     

社会保障税制度设计的理论问题与框架分析

开征社会保障税是社会保障制度建设的重要内容。文章深入分析了社会保障税税制设计的目的和性质 ,指出 :应合理界定由社会保障税所筹集的社会保障基金的权利人和管理人 ,同时 ,文章还对开征社会保障税的征税客体、税目、税率等进行了系统研究     

适应WTO公平竞争要求,调整完善我国税制

公平竞争 ,是WTO为实现国际贸易自由化所倡导的基本原则。它体现在WTO各项规则和协议中 ,在税收方面 ,就是要求公平税负 ,以创造一个公平竞争的税收环境。我国在税制建设上 ,虽为各类纳税人营造良好的外部环境创造了一定条件 ,但从公平税负方面考虑 ,特别是与WTO的要求仍相差甚远。加入WTO后 ,应针对目前我国税制在公平税负方面存在的不足 ,按照WTO公平竞争的要求 ,对我国现行税制进行必要的调整与完善     

发展我国企业年金制度的几点思考

随着全球公共养老保险面临的困境,各国政府纷纷对传统的养老保险进行改革。在改革过程中,企业年金发挥了越来越重要的作用。本文主要对企业年金制度在国内外的发展展开讨论,并提出发展我国企业年金制度的初步设想。     

Benefits of Surgical Smoothing and Spare Capacity: An Econometric Analysis of Patient Flow

In this study, we examine the hospital's ability to admit patients from its emergency department. From a medical perspective, the number of patients being admitted should depend solely on the patients’ clinical conditions. Using a large‐scale econometric study that includes detailed operational and clinical data on all cardiac patient encounters from a set of 128 hospitals over a period of four years, we show that this is not the case. In particular, we find that independent of their medical condition, many emergency patients are denied hospital admission because of a lack of inpatient beds. Our analysis suggests that having one more inpatient bed at the start of a day can increase the likelihood of an emergency room patient admission by around 3% on average. We examine two policies – active discharge and demand smoothing – that can help hospitals improve patient access. We find that some hospitals actively discharge inpatients when beds become scarce; hospitals that follow such an active discharge protocol are, on average, able to admit more patients. We also investigate to what extent the hospital's ability to smooth its surgical schedule impacts hospital admissions. Hospitals tend to schedule their elective patients early in the week (Mondays and Tuesdays), and discharge them by the weekend in order to minimize weekend staffing, effectively maximizing bed occupancy during the middle of the week. This “weekend effect” artificially induces variability, and reduces effective system capacity. We find that by scheduling patients more uniformly over the week, hospitals can dramatically increase patient access, obviating the need for active discharges or additional capacity investment. Our analysis quantifies these effects, and can help hospitals make effective capacity management decisions in order to improve patient flow.